Coming Out (China)

Coming out is an Economist piece about the challenges and opportunities facing China. It gives a great overview of the issues affecting China's future.

Yet there is no other important country whose likely trajectory over the next 20 years is more uncertain than China's. Possibilities include:

• An economy that continues to boom as the political system gradually becomes more liberal and China becomes an increasingly positive force in the world;
• A fast-growing economy, a surge of vengeful nationalism and an attempt by China to displace American power in Asia, regain Taiwan and challenge Japan;
• A country in disarray, engulfed by social and political crises as its economy slumps.

All are plausible. Much will depend on choices made by China itself and by other powers, especially America.

Comments

[Account Deleted]

Thanks for blogging on this important article. I think many analyists fail to account for the (so far at least) incredible ability of the Chinese government to recognize its country's problems and to marshall forces and money to deal with them. So far, it's been so good, but I too often wonder how much longer a centralized economy can keep getting things right.

The private sector continues to grow and is really quite dynamic, but the worry there is about the 800 million villagers who have yet to really share in any spoils.

[Michael Kruse]

Thanks Dan.

"The private sector continues to grow and is really quite dynamic, but the worry there is about the 800 million villagers who have yet to really share in any spoils."

I agree that this is the crux of the problem. This is a big challenge and I think the clock is ticking. China's population will continue to age which will require and expanding safety net. If they can't broaden the prosperity ahead of that... It is a scary scenario.