Religion and the Presidential Vote: A Tale of Two Gaps

Pew Forum: Religion and the Presidential Vote: A Tale of Two Gaps

For the presidential candidates and the pundits who write about them, one concern in the 2008 campaign is the "religion gap" - shorthand for the religious differences between Republican and Democratic voters. An analysis of national exit polls from 2004 shows there is not one but two religion gaps - one based on religious affiliation and the other based on frequency of attendance at worship services. Recent surveys by the Pew Research Center provide evidence that both of these religion gaps are at work as the public evaluates the candidates for the 2008 presidential race. The surveys also indicate that the Democrats may be doing better than they did in 2004 among some religious groups.

Candidates have long recognized religious affiliation as a significant factor in American elections. In the 1940s, for example, Catholics tended to vote Democratic and mainline Protestants tended to vote Republican. A similar gap now exists between white evangelical Protestants, who are strongly Republican, and black Protestants, who are strongly Democratic.

In the last three decades, however, a second religion gap has appeared, this one based on frequency of attendance at worship services. Voters who report attending religious services at least once a week - regardless of religious affiliation - tend to vote more Republican. Those who say they attend religious services less often (termed "less observant" for the purpose of this analysis) tend to vote more Democratic. ...

Comments

[Bob Robinson]

I'm wondering what this means. Is it a case of "the more faithful one is, the more he/she votes for a Republican?"

Or is it a case of simple groupthink - that there is an increasingly disturbing trend in which people vote according to group affiliation and not according to independent analysis.

[Michael W. Kruse]

Frequent attendance at worship (at least weekly) appears to be the key point. This trend is true Christian, Jewish, and Muslim groups in America. I think it has less to do with explicit religious ideology than having a connection to the civic order. If you attend worship weekly you likely are connected in other civic ways. You have a higher estimation of the institutions of society and greater faith in their efficacy. Furthermore, there is a correlation between church attendance and living in something resembling a traditional family.

Those that attend worship less than weekly are less connected civically and have lower estimations about the efficacy societal institutions, prompting them to advocate more government intervention to “fix” problems. In recent years I think Republicans have been perceived as more friendly to the culture of local community, faith institutions, personal autonomy and civic virtue than Democrats. Democrats have been seen as a collection agitating interest groups who are at least suspicious, if not antagonistic, to traditional civic institutions. So I do think it is religious ideology but rather civic connectedness that may be driving some of the divide.

Just one thought.