Recession Ahead?

Is there a recession ahead? Here are two graphs (I love graphs) presented in recent posts by economics professor Mark Perry. What do you think?

Year-to-Year Real GDP Growth Was Actually 2.5%!

Durable Goods Strength Suggests No Recession

 

Also see today's post 24th Month of Real Disposable Income Growth and a post from earlier this week Due to Falling Unemployment Claims in January, Recession Odds Have Fallen From 35% to 15%.

Comments

[Dana Ames]

Ok. But hasn't there been recession after war? With even very hawkish people tiring of our folly in Iraq, hopefully we will be out of there soon. What then?

Dana

[Michael W. Kruse]

Hi Dana. A recession is two consecutive quarters on negative growth. I'm unaware of any particular connection between war and recession. (See this article) That doesn't mean one isn't on the way but the data supporting such a prediction is weak I think. I think globalization is having on impact on how or economy works that makes it harder to read the "tea leafs." :)

[Dana Ames]

Interesting article. The globalization thing makes sense.

I think people are getting kerfluffled over not much, thanks in no small part to the way the media covers things now.

Your picture of Isaac is work printing and framing. Very handsome!

Dana

[Dana Ames]

whoops, meant "worth" not "work"...
D.

[Michael W. Kruse]

"kerfluffled"

Now there is wonderful socio-psychological term! This may replace "discombobulated" in my vocabulary.

Thanks about the picture. That is probably my favorite picture of the fur ball.

[Virgil]

Excellent...it goes to confirm the fact that when the media and the Democrats talk down the economy continuously for months and months, it does make a difference.

[Mike D]

Yeah thanks Democrats and you liberal media. It's those people like Rupert Murdoch and Fox News whose talk of recession is screwing all of us.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=1KUUwmwhlb0

[Michael W. Kruse]

I don't know what motives are driving folks. Sensationalism drives the media every bit as much as personal political bents. I'm just looking at the data that usually indicates recession. There is some shakiness in places but I'm not anywhere near pushing the panic button yet. We will see.