Carpe Diem: Decline in Labor Force Participation Reflects Demographics, May Not Be as Bad as Reported
... 1. An important point of clarification: The civilian labor force participation rate (LFPR) is calculated by the BLS as the Civilian Labor Force (employed + unemployed) divided by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (16 years and over), and not by the working age population as both the WSJ and IBD report. This can be verified by the current BLS employment report, which calculates the April Labor Force Participation Rate of 63.6% as 154,365 (labor force) DIVIDED BY 242,784,000 (TOTAL POPULATION, not divided by working-age population). ...
... Bottom Line: The overall LFPR was in decline after peaking in 2000 reflecting long-term demographic trends even during the expansion of 2002-2007, and probably would have continued to decline even without the Great Recession. Although it's certainly likely that the Great Recession accelerated the decline since 2007, it's important to realize with increased life expectancy, we can expect continued increases over time in those counted as "not in the labor force" and a continuation of the decline in the LFPR that started in 2000.
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