Last month I published a post "predicting" a tie in the electoral college vote. (My 2012 Electoral College Prediction) On MSNBC's Daily Rundown this morning, Chuck Todd had an interesting piece on a tie in the Electoral College. I see that Intrade gives a 5% chance of a tie; that is 1 in 20.
Several scenarios could lead to a tie. Here is the Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map as of this morning. Real Clear Politics uses a running average of recent polls.
A 25-vote swing toward Romney would create a tie. Virginia (13 votes) has the narrowest margin for Obama at .8%. Let's give that to Romney. That gives us 281-257.
The remaining states with the narrowest margins (between 2% and 3%) for Obama are Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10). Give Obama Ohio and Wisconsin (28 votes). Give Romney Iowa and Nevada (12 votes). You get 269-269. (Todd started with a different map, but this scenario is the one he also deemed most likely to happen.)
The electoral votes are opened and counted in early January by the sitting vice president (Biden) in front of the newly installed House of Representatives. The 12th Amendment says that the House will elect a president from the top three candidates if no majority exists. But the House vote is done by the 50 state delegations, not the individual 435 members. Republicans have a sizeable majority of state delegations. Romney would be elected president.
However, if no vice-presidential candidate has a majority, the Senate elects a vice-president from the two candidates receiving the most votes. In this case, the election is by the 100 individual senators, not by state delegations. Polls at Real Clear Politics give Democrats a 52-48 edge in the new Senate. If there is a 50-50 split in the newly installed Senate, then the sitting vice president (Joe Biden at that point) casts the deciding vote. Would the Senate elect Biden even if the House elects Romney?
But the scenarios get even messier. Going back to the first map, let's assume that Romney does not get Virginia but instead transfers only Ohio (18 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes) to his column. Then Obama wins 270-268, right? Not so fast. Nebraska and Maine do not have a winner-takes-all system for electoral votes. Now we have this story: Poll: Romney five points ahead of Obama in Maine's 2nd Congressional District. If this one vote goes to Romney, we are at a 269-269 tie.
Further complicating matters is the faithless elector scenario. A faithless elector is someone who fails to cast their vote in the way they were pledged to vote. So imagine a couple of Republican electors are disgruntled Ron Paul supporters who vote for Obama, giving Obama the win or causing a tie. There have been six faithless electors in the last fifty years. I imagine the court cases filed in response to faithless electors would dwarf the events of the 2000 election.
Now, imagine all this while confronting the looming fiscal cliff! Certainly, 20:1 odds aren't very good, but it is better than we typically see. Wouldn't the chaos be fun?! Maybe I need to start a new Facebook page: Americans for a Tie. ;-)
What do you think?
Comments