Kruse Kronicle

Calmly Considered: Gun Violence in America

Allan Bevere and I reflect on the issue of gun violence in America.

The Enduring Myth of Black Criminality

The Atlantic: The Enduring Myth of Black Criminality

"In his upcoming October cover story, Ta-Nehisi Coates explores how mass incarceration has affected African American families. "There's a long history in this country of dealing with problems in the African American community through the criminal justice system," he says in this animated interview. "The enduring view of African Americans in this country is as a race of people who are prone to criminality." You can read the full story on September 15, 2015."

Looks like an interesting series.

I Stand With My Friends ... Black and Blue

There is an old joke about a mealy-mouthed politician who says, “Some of my friends are for this measure. Some of my friends are against it. As me for me, I stand with my friends.” I’ve always loved that joke, but through the years, I’ve learned that there are circumstances where standing with my friends is the right response.

Today I am told I must choose between supporting police officers and supporting minorities who tell of problems in dealing with law enforcement. Each camp points to the most extreme behavior of opponents to justify dismissive and dehumanizing responses. Yet one of the most challenging articles I’ve read came shortly after the Ferguson verdict. (Why I Feel Torn About the Ferguson Verdict) Safiya Jafari Simmons, a black woman who is the wife of a police officer and the mother of a black son, writes of her dilemma in telling her husband to do what he has to do to come home safe each night while also worrying about what may happen to her son through profiling or a misunderstanding by police. The choice between supporting law enforcement and supporting minorities with frustrations is false.

As we mourn the loss of the two murdered NYPD officers, let us pray for God’s shalom to be made full, especially as we celebrate the birth of the Prince of Shalom. And let us pray that God would reveal to each of us our role in realizing that shalom.

#bluelivesmatter #blacklivesmatter

Why the Increase in Justifiable Homicide by Law Enforcement?

The rate of justifiable homicide by law enforcement is much higher in the United States than in other developed nations. The number of incidents has increased since 2000, even as the crime rate has dropped markedly. (See Justifiable Homicide by Law Enforcement by the Numbers) Why is this so?

The reason for the high rate of justifiable homicide relative to other nations seems straightforward. America is a violent society. Blame it on our frontier heritage, or whatever you will, the fact is that American homicide rates are much higher than in other developed nations. Firearms are abundant. Confrontations have a much greater chance of involving lethal force. Our relatively high rate strikes me as a statement about our society, not about the law enforcement community. The

The challenging question is why the rate of justifiable homicide by law enforcement should be increasing while crime rates have been falling. I am not certain. I am not a criminologist. The criminologist I read say solid data is lacking. Definitive answers are hard to come by. Here are my speculations.

Verbal Judo

Several years ago, I read a book by a police officer named George Thompson called Verbal Judo: The Gentle Art of Persuasion. Thompson had been an English professor with a black belt in karate before going into law enforcement. He tells about his first night on patrol. He pulled over a man for a traffic violation. When the man got mouthy, Thompson forcibly subdued and arrested him. Thompson was summoned to his superior at the end of the shift. He anticipated praise for his work. Instead, his captain explained that such a stop should not have ended in an arrest. Thompson would never make it as a police officer if he could not learn how to deal better with people.

During his apprenticeship as a police officer, Thompson came to see karate and judo as metaphors for a policing mindset. Karate is about meeting force with force, while judo is about using your opponent’s momentum to throw him in the direction you want him to go. So how might this work with an irritable speeder?

Officer: “Sir, I need to your driver’s license and registration.” (The officer makes clear what compliance looks like.)

Speeder: “Seriously! What did I do? Fail to flip a freakin’ turn signal? Drug dealers on the street and terrorist blowing up buildings. Don’t you jackasses have something better to do? How many people’s houses are being robbed?”

Officer: (calmly) “I can appreciate that sir but I still need to see your driver’s license and registration.”

There might be two or three iterations of this interchange, with the officer calmly making clear what is required each time. The officer allows the offender to vent while still making clear the need for compliance. If compliance is still not forthcoming, the officer might say something like:

Officer: (calmly) “Sir, if you do not comply, I will have to arrest you. You will spend the night in a cold uncomfortable cell instead of in your nice warm bed. I will have to spend an hour or more, sitting in my car, filling out paperwork. Neither of us wants that. Please hand me your driver’s license and registration.”

The officer reiterates the need for compliance but is now making clear the consequences of noncompliance. He appeals to the direction the offender wants to go (home to a warm bed) as an act of verbal judo.

If the offender still does not comply, then the officer will say something like:

Officer: (calmly) “Sir, are you sure there is nothing I can say to gain your compliance?”

At that point, the officer and his partner are positioning themselves to spring into action to apprehend the noncompliant offender.

This is verbal judo. It applies to almost any position of authority. The subject is not required to like the person in authority or the demand. They have the space to voice opposition. The goal is to gain compliance by helping the person see the consequences of noncompliance and help them see that compliance is desirable. The aim is to defuse resistance, not escalate it. Most often, the person will comply before things escalate to using force.

My point is not the specifics of the technique. I am pointing to the mindset. “Verbal Judo” is a different mindset than rolling up on a scene, barking orders, and taking the least perceived slight as justification for escalating to tasers, takedowns, and lethal force. I believe most officers have typically embraced a defusing model of policing. I base that on my limited interaction with the few law enforcement officers I have known and for whom I have great respect. They genuinely see their job as a calling to serve and protect.

Unfortunately, I worry this sense of calling is eroding. It concerns me that too many officers may now see Thompson’s aggressive escalating rookie behavior as the optimal model. I cannot empirically substantiate this except that I see the rising rate of justifiable homicides as a likely proxy for violence by law enforcement. Furthermore, the Justice Department just completed a study of the Cleveland Police Department and found the following patterns:

• The unnecessary and excessive use of deadly force, including shootings and head strikes with impact weapons;
• the unnecessary, excessive or retaliatory use of less lethal force including Tasers, chemical spray and fists;
• Excessive force against persons who are mentally ill or in crisis, including in cases where the officers were called exclusively for a welfare check; and
• The employment of poor and dangerous tactics that place officers in situations where avoidable force becomes inevitable. (Source)

A former St. Louis police officer recently wrote:

… As a cop, it shouldn’t surprise you that people will curse at you, or be disappointed by your arrival. That’s part of the job. But too many times, officers saw young black and brown men as targets. They would respond with force to even minor offenses. And because cops are rarely held accountable for their actions, they didn’t think too hard about the consequences. …

… I, too, have faced mortal danger. I’ve been shot at and attacked. But I know it’s almost always possible to defuse a situation.

Once, a sergeant and I got a call about someone wielding a weapon in an apartment. When we showed up, we found someone sitting on the bed with a very large butcher knife. Rather than storming him and screaming “put the knife down” like my colleagues would have done, we kept our distance. We talked to him, tried to calm him down.

It became clear to us that he was dealing with mental illness. So eventually, we convinced him to come to the hospital with us.

I’m certain many other officers in the department would have escalated the situation fast. They would have screamed at him, gotten close to him, threatened him. And then, any movement from him, even an effort to drop the knife, would have been treated as an excuse to shoot until their clips were empty. … (Source)

I have listened to other ex-officers from other cities give similar testimony. Despite what I perceive to be most officers entering their work as a noble calling, the evidence seems to point to systemic problems beyond isolated individuals going rogue. I nominate two factors for consideration.

Broken Windows

First, broken windows policing. As I understand it, this model suggests that disorder in a community makes residents withdraw and isolate themselves. This creates opportunities for more serious criminal activity to move in. A downward cycle ensues. Broken windows policing focuses on addressing even minor problems to restore a sense of order, catalyzing a positive upward cycle.

The broken windows policy came into vogue with the crack-cocaine epidemic in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The crime rate did plummet after 1994, and this policy may have played a key role. But is there a point at which neighborhoods reach a semblance of health, and it is counterproductive to continue this policy? Does continuation begin to feel like harassment? Add to this that has typically been implemented in minority neighborhoods. Continued enforcement means minority residents are charged with violations routinely ignored in white communities. It is not hard to see how a cycle of escalating resentment between law enforcement and citizens could emerge.

9/11

Second, 9/11. Curiously, 2001 is where we see the divergence between a dropping crime rate and a rising justifiable homicide rate. Law enforcement must take extraordinary measures in crises. We give law enforcement officers considerably more latitude. Many perceive our society to have been in a perpetual crisis ever since the attack on the World Trade Center. Militarization and the equipment law enforcement agencies are acquiring are rising in mindset. Fear of terrorism has become wedded to a perception that crime and chaos are spinning wildly out of control. (As noted in the previous post, crime rates have plummeted to their lowest rates in fifty years, but the widespread perception is much different.)  (Related: Police Violence Is The Exception.)

In this environment, defusing difficult encounters becomes a luxury. I routinely hear conservative commentators characterizing those who the police shoot as “resisting arrest” when they do not instantly follow an officer’s direction. They justify law enforcement in aggressive confrontations. This could certainly be true in a crisis, but for jaywalking? For selling “loosies?” I absolutely agree that citizens should show respect for police officers, but I flatly reject that failure to show such respect necessitates escalation by an officer. Officers who do not know how to defuse situations, or are unwilling to try, are not qualified to be in law enforcement. George Thompson’s captain was right.

I’m not suggesting that these are the only two variables. For instance, a National Sheriff’s Association report points to an increase in encounters between police and people who have a mental illness. (Source) Still, I think broken windows and 9/11 are key contributors that set the stage for much else.

Now I have purposely been sidestepping the issue of race because I wanted to lay the above foundation before incorporating race. More in the next post.

What do you think?

 

 

 

 

Justifiable Homicide by Law Enforcement by the Numbers

It has been more than a week since a grand jury reported a decision not to indict Darren Wilson in the killing of Michael Brown. We have no indictment decision by a grand jury in New York for Daniel Pantaleo killing Eric Garner. These cases are essentially classified as justifiable homicide. I've been listening to the ensuing discussions and have some observations, which I will spread across at least two posts.

Anytime issues like these come to the fore, I find myself wanting to get a handle on the big picture. I've been doing some research on the topic, which is quite frustrating. Here is what I've learned.

According to the FBI's Uniform Crime Report (UCR), there were 461 justifiable homicides by police. (UCR) Let us assume this data is valid for the moment. How can we put that in perspective?

Let's compare it to three other countries. The number of justifiable homicides was zero in England in 2013, eight in Germany over the last two years, and about twelve per year in Canada. (Source) These countries are smaller than the USA, so let's increase their population to the size of the USA and assume justified homicides would rise by a corresponding number. Here is what you get:

England = 0

Germany = 16

Canada = 110

USA = 461

So we have a much higher rate than comparable nations.

However, I stipulated an assumption that the data is correct. It is not. The UCR only compiles crimes known to police in 750 of more than 17,000 law enforcement entities. Participation is voluntary and inconsistent across entities. (Source) Analysis of data from 105 of the submitting entities shows 47% more incidents than were reported. (Source) For instance, some entities do not consider justifiable homicide an "offense," so they do not report their data. Adjusting for this undercount would mean something like 680 justifiable homicides by law enforcement. But we need to go a step further.

There is no federal clearinghouse collecting data on homicide by law enforcement. On May 1, 2013, a Facebook page called Killed By Police was created that attempts to catalog every death that happens at the hands of police from news sources across the nation. It chronicles every kind of death, including someone who dies of a heart attack after arrest or in a collision with a police vehicle in a high-speed chase. The FiveThirtyEight folks analyzed the data, weeding out deaths unrelated to the process of an arrest, and estimated the number of deaths to be about 1,100 a year. (Source)

We simply do not know the exact number of justifiable homicides by law enforcement; therefore, we have no definitive means of measuring trends in the frequency of such cases. We do not know the characteristics of the people involved. That said, it seems likely that the rate of justifiable homicides by law enforcement has been rising.

If we assume the Uniform Crime Report data is from the same law enforcement entities using the same methods from year to year, we see an increase in justifiable homicides by law enforcement from 309 in 2000 to 461 in 2013. (The data only goes back to 1980. The 1999 and 200o stats were the lowest since a previous low of 300 in 1987.) (Source) If we then assume the UCR data as a proxy for what has happened in non-reporting areas as well, then the instances of justifiable homicides by law enforcement have risen by 50% from 2000 to 2013.

Note that the crime rate, as reported by the UCR, dropped by 20% during 2000-2013. The murder rate shows a drop of 5.5 per 100k population to 4.5, about a 20% drop. (Calculated from here.) But also remember that the UCR data is not the best measure of actual crime incidents. Victimization studies (annual surveys asking about victimization, whether reported to police or not) show a 50% drop in crime. (Source)

In short, justifiable homicide by law enforcement is far more common in the USA than in other advanced nations. And the perplexing reality is that it is getting appreciably worse each year, despite less and less crime. Something is not right.

What do you think is going on? In a follow-up post, I'll offer my thoughts, including how race figures into this, but I'm curious to know what you think.

The U.S. imprisonment rate has fallen for the fifth straight year. Here’s why.

Washington Post: The U.S. imprisonment rate has fallen for the fifth straight year. Here’s why.

The U.S. imprisonment rate has fallen for a fifth straight year, a run not seen since Richard Nixon was in The White House.  According to data released Tuesday from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, while the U.S. incarceration rate is still remarkably high, 2013 marks a 10-year low.  For five reasons, the de-incarceration trend has an excellent chance of continuing.

First, crime is down by about 50% in the past two decades. ...

Second, U.S. prison policy is primarily set by states and hence is less constrained than other potential reforms stalled by Washington's political gridlock. ...

Third, even though conservatives and liberals are battling each other vigorously on many policy fronts, de-incarceration is not one of them.  ...

Fourth, a new generation of evidence-based community supervision programs  ...

Last, just as a high crime rate can create the conditions for more crime (e.g., by overwhelming law enforcement) and a low crime rate can create the conditions for less crime (e.g., by encouraging more citizens to walk the streets at night), lower imprisonment rates also appear capable of creating virtuous self-reinforcing cycles....

Reasons to Be Cheerful

Matt Ridley: Reasons to Be Cheerful

We are prone to fixate on problems and threats. The news concentrates on Ebola, the Middle East and Ukraine violence, and the discord in Ferguson, Missouri. But it is important to keep present challenges (and they are more decidedly real) in context. Matt Ridley offers twelve reasons to be cheerful when we look at broader trends.

So let’s tot up instead what is going, and could go, right. Actually it is a pretty long list, just not a very newsworthy one. Compared with any time in the past half century, the world as a whole is today wealthier, healthier, happier, cleverer, cleaner, kinder, freer, safer, more peaceful and more equal.

1. The average person on the planet earns roughly three times as much as he or she did 50 years ago, corrected for inflation. If anything, this understates the improvement in living standards ...

2. The average person lives about a third longer than 50 years ago and buries two thirds fewer of his or her children (and child mortality is the greatest measure of misery I can think of).

3. The amount of food available per head has gone up steadily on every continent, despite a doubling of the population. Famine is now very rare.

4. The death rate from malaria is down by nearly 30 per cent since the start of the century. HIV-related deaths are falling. Polio, measles, yellow fever, diphtheria, cholera, typhoid, typhus — they killed our ancestors in droves, but they are now rare diseases.

5. We tell ourselves we are miserable, but it is not true. ...

6. education is in a mess and everybody’s cross about it, but consider: far more people go to school and stay there longer than they did 50 years ago.

7. The air is much cleaner than when I was young, with smog largely banished from our cities. Rivers are cleaner and teem with otters and kingfishers. ... Forest cover is increasing in many countries and the pressure on land to grow food has begun to ease.

8. We give more of our earnings to charity than our grandparents did.

9. Violent crimes of almost all kinds are on the decline — murder, rape, theft, domestic violence.

10. Despite all the illiberal things our governments still try to do to us, freedom is on the march.

11. The weather is not getting worse. Despite what you may have read, there is no global increase in floods, cyclones, tornadoes, blizzards and wild fires — and there has been a decline in the severity of droughts. ... there has been a steep decline in deaths due to extreme weather.

12. As for inequality, the world as a whole is getting rapidly more equal in income, because people in poor countries are getting richer at a more rapid pace than people in rich countries. ...

By all means, let us address the problems at hand, but let us also tap down the tendency to see only the negative and give in to gloom and despair.

US violent crime is lowest in 44 years and half the rate in 1991

Carpe Diem: US violent crime is lowest in 44 years and half the rate in 1991

50 Reasons We're Living Through the Greatest Period in World History

Huff Post Business (The Motley Fool): 50 Reasons We're Living Through the Greatest Period in World History

I recently talked to a doctor who retired after a 30-year career. I asked him how much medicine had changed during the three decades he practiced. "Oh, tremendously," he said. He listed off a dozen examples. Deaths from heart disease and stroke are way down. Cancer survival rates are way up. We're better at diagnosing, treating, preventing and curing disease than ever before.

Consider this: In 1900, one percent of American women giving birth died in labor. Today, the five-year mortality rate for localized breast cancer is 1.2 percent. Being pregnant 100 years ago was almost as dangerous as having breast cancer is today.

The problem, the doctor said, is that these advances happen slowly over time, so you probably don't hear about them. If cancer survival rates improve, say, one percent per year, any given year's progress looks low, but over three decades, extraordinary progress is made.

Compare health-care improvements with the stuff that gets talked about in the news -- NBC anchor Andrea Mitchell interrupted a Congresswoman last week to announce Justin Bieber's arrest -- and you can understand why Americans aren't optimistic about the country's direction. We ignore the really important news because it happens slowly, but we obsess over trivial news because it happens all day long.

Expanding on my belief that everything is amazing and nobody is happy, here are 50 facts that show we're actually living through the greatest period in world history.

1. U.S. life expectancy at birth was 39 years in 1800, 49 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950 and 79 years today. The average newborn today can expect to live an entire generation longer than his great-grandparents could.

2. A flu pandemic in 1918 infected 500 million people and killed as many as 100 million. In his book The Great Influenza, John Barry describes the illness as if "someone were hammering a wedge into your skull just behind the eyes, and body aches so intense they felt like bones breaking." Today, you can go to Safeway and get a flu shot. It costs 15 bucks. You might feel a little poke.

3. In 1950, 23 people per 100,000 Americans died each year in traffic accidents, according to the Census Bureau. That fell to 11 per 100,000 by 2009. If the traffic mortality rate had not declined, 37,800 more Americans would have died last year than actually did. In the time it will take you to read this article, one American is alive who would have died in a car accident 60 years ago. ...

Economics Links

1. Carpe Diem: 5 Reasons Why 2013 Was The Best Year In Human History

1. Fewer people are dying young, and more are living longer. ...
2. Global economic growth in the past five decades has dramatically reduced poverty and made people around the world happier. ...
3. War is becoming rarer and less deadly. ...
4. Rates of murder and other violent crimes are in free-fall. ...
5. There’s less racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination in the world. ...

2. Everyone is putting out their most important economic charts list for 2013:  Atlantic: The Most Important Economic Stories of 2013—in 44 Graphs.  Economist: 2013 in charts.  Huffington Post: The 13 Most Important Charts Of 2013.

3. Economist: The world has become better fed over the past 50 years

MANY people will groan after stuffing themselves on a Christmas feast. A traditional three-course turkey dinner can be as much as 3,500 calories. Such indulgences are a luxury in many parts of the world—but thankfully less so. Over the past half-century, the amount of food that people consume has increased (measured in calories), according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation. Our interactive map and chart tracks countries across five decades, letting users select places, years on the timeline or any chart-line. (It performs poorly on smartphones; our apologies.) ...

In a related story at NPR: More People Have More To Eat, But It's Not All Good News

... The good news is: The percentage of the world's population getting what the researchers say is a sufficient diet has grown from 30 percent to 61 percent.

In 1965, a majority of the world survived on less than 2,000 calories a day per person. This was especially true in parts of the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Now, 61 percent of the world has access to 2,500 or more calories a day.

But one thing the scientists discovered is that the countries that have a history of food insufficiency didn't just up and start growing lots more food. Instead, for the most part they're increasing supply by importing food from abroad. ...

I'm unclear why the author thinks importing food is a problem but other challenges he mentions in the article are an issue.

4. Carpe Diem: When it comes to home appliances, the ‘good old days’ are now: they’re cheaper, better, more energy efficient than ever

... In 1981, the 24-inch built-in dishwasher pictured above from a 1981 Wards Christmas catalog sold for $359.88. The average hourly manufacturing wage then was $7.42, meaning that it would have taken 48.5 hours of work at the average hourly wage for a typical factory worker to earn enough income 32 years ago to purchase the dishwasher above. ...

... The new Kenmore 24-inch built-in dishwasher pictured above is currently listed on the Sears website for sale at $539.99. At the current average hourly wage of $20.26 for production workers, the average factory worker today would only have to work 26.7 hours to earn enough pre-tax income to buy today’s energy-efficient dishwasher, which is only a little more than one-half of the 48.5 hour time-cost for the 1981 model.

Bottom Line: Today’s modern household appliances are not only cheaper than ever before, they are the most energy-efficient appliances in history, resulting in additional savings for consumers through lower operating costs. The average dishwasher today is not only more than twice as energy-efficient as a comparable 1981 model, but its real cost today is only about 50% of the price of the 1981 dishwasher, measured in hours worked at the average hourly wage. Put those two factors together, and the average American’s dishwasher today is about six times superior to the dishwasher of thirty years ago. ...

5. Carpe Diem: How much did real US median income increase from 1979 to 2007? A lot depends on the measure of income used

"The median income data [often cited] are on tax units rather than households, they do not include many government transfer payments, they are pre-tax rather than post-tax, they do not adjust for changes in household size, and they do not include nontaxable compensation such as employer-provided health insurance.

Does this matter?  Yes!"

6. American Interest: Economic Mobility is a Male Problem

The biggest victim of family breakdown might be lower-class men. In City Journal Kay Hymowitz has a fascinating yet alarming piece on how family breakdown hurts men’s prospects more than women’s. One of the most interesting facts she highlights is that if you separate out men from women, women in America are roughly as upwardly mobile as women anywhere else in the world. It’s only when you add men back in and compare the US whole population to populations abroad that things look bleak:

Numerous studies have confirmed that the U.S. has less upward mobility than just about any developed nation, including England, the homeland of the peerage. Yet, if you look at boys separately from girls, as the Finnish economist Markus Jäntti and his colleagues at the Bonn-based Institute for the Study of Labor did, the story changes markedly. In every country studied, girls are more likely than boys to climb up the income ladder, but in the United States, the disadvantage for sons is substantially greater than in other countries. Almost 75 percent of American daughters escape the lowest quintile—not unlike girls in the comparison countries of the United Kingdom, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Fewer than 60 percent of American sons experience similar success. ...

7. AEI Ideas: 3 charts that show what’s really going on with economic mobility in the US

8. Washington Post: Full employment, not inequality, should be the top economic priority - Ezra Klein

... While there are ways to reduce inequality without doing much about employment (say, by taxing the rich and using the proceeds on defense spending), it's hard to imagine full employment not doing much to reduce inequality. ...

... All that said, income inequality and social mobility really are startling trends that people should be very worried about and that the political system should be working aggressively to solve, or at least ameliorate. I don't have many policy disagreements with the folks focusing on inequality. But politics is about prioritization, and what politicians end up doing is in part driven by what problems their political coalitions are most worried about. ...

9. Conversable Economist: Falling Unemployment and Falling Labor Force Participation

10. Business Insider: This Map Shows Which Parts Of The Country Have A Huge Gender Gap In The Workforce

11. PBS: The rise of the 'new rich': 1 in 5 Americans will reach affluence in their lives

It's not just the wealthiest 1 percent.

Fully 20 percent of U.S. adults become rich for parts of their lives, wielding outsize influence on America's economy and politics. This little-known group may pose the biggest barrier to reducing the nation's income inequality.

The growing numbers of the U.S. poor have been well documented, but survey data provided to The Associated Press detail the flip side of the record income gap -- the rise of the "new rich." ...

12. Atlantic Cities: America's Wealth Is Staggeringly Concentrated in the Northeast Corridor

 

13. New York Times: Demand Soaring, Poor Are Feeling Squeezed

... Today, millions of poor Americans are caught in a similar trap, with the collapse of the housing boom helping stoke a severe shortage of affordable apartments. Demand for rental units has surged, with credit standards tight and many families unable to scrape together enough for a down payment for buying a home. At the same time, supply has declined, with homebuilders and landlords often targeting the upper end of the market. ...

14. Bloomberg: North America to Drown in Oil as Mexico Ends Monopoly

The flood of North American crude oil is set to become a deluge as Mexico dismantles a 75-year-old barrier to foreign investment in its oil fields.

Plagued by almost a decade of slumping output that has degraded Mexico’s take from a $100-a-barrel oil market, President Enrique Pena Nieto is seeking an end to the state monopoly over one of the biggest crude resources in the Western Hemisphere. The doubling in Mexican oil output that Citigroup Inc. said may result from inviting international explorers to drill would be equivalent to adding another Nigeria to world supply, or about 2.5 million barrels a day....

15. Oil Price: Cheap Fossil Fuels: Good or Bad for the World’s Poor?

... Let’s try reconciling all of the themes raised in Lomborg’s article and in my comments by reframing them in this way:

•    Yes, fossil fuels are going to be with us for a while. For that reason, a smart energy policy needs to focus on shifting the mix of fossil fuels, so far as is possible, to relatively clean natural gas and away from relatively dirty coal, while also keeping the pressure on for energy conservation across the board.
•    Price signals are one way to keep the pressure on. A carbon tax is a somewhat crude way to penalize relatively dirty fuels, in that climate change is not the only issue. We should be concerned, too, about sulfur and mercury from burning coal, urban air pollution from gasoline and diesel fuels, and local environmental risks of fracking for natural gas. Still, a carbon tax serves at least roughly to penalize the dirtiest fuels the most.
•    And yes, no environmental policy is going to be successful politically if it is seen as a matter of saving the earth versus helping the poor. Fuel subsidies have to go, since, realistically, they are a burden, not a boon, to the poor, but at the same time, some of the budgetary economies from the elimination of subsidies and some of the revenues from carbon taxes should  go toward smarter policies to help the world’s least advantaged.

Those ideas might help point us toward policies that are good for both the poor and the planet.

16.  askblog: The Market is a Process, not a Decision Mechanism

... I think that many commentators contrast the market and government as mechanisms for making decisions. In this contrast, the market sometimes has an efficiency advantage, but government is presumed to have a moral-authority advantage.

Instead, think of the market as a process for testing hypotheses. The process is brutally empirical, winnowing out losing strategies and poor execution. In contrast, elections are a much weaker testing mechanism. Elections are unable to winnow out sugar subsidies, improvident loan guarantees, schools that produce bad outcomes, etc. ...

17. Quartz:  Why the left-leaning Nelson Mandela was such a champion of free markets

One often overlooked aspect of Nelson Mandela’s legacy is South Africa’s economy. Parallel to everything amazing the man is connected to—freeing the country from the shackles of apartheid, subordinating retribution in favor of peace and reconciliation, and unifying a volatile nation at risk of civil war—he laid the groundwork for South Africa as the continent’s economic powerhouse. ...

18. Atlantic: Why Economics Is Really Called 'the Dismal Science'

... But this origin myth is, well, mythical. Carlyle did coin the phrase "the dismal science." And Malthus was, without question, dismal.

But Carlyle labeled the science "dismal" when writing about slavery in the West Indies. White plantation owners, he said, ought to force black plantation workers to be their servants. Economics, somewhat inconveniently for Carlyle, didn't offer a hearty defense of slavery. Instead, the rules of supply and demand argued for "letting men alone" rather than thrashing them with whips for not being servile. Carlyle bashed political economy as "a dreary, desolate, and indeed quite abject and distressing [science]; what we might call ... the dismal science.” ...

Saturday Links

1. Mark Buchanan asks Is Economics a Science or a Religion?

2. Poverty has moved to the suburbs

I don't think this should be seen as necessarily a bad thing. A few decades ago, the idea was to "warehouse" the poor in large urban complexes. There has been an intentional effort at dispersal through various means including creating mixed-income neighborhoods.

3. Crime has plummeted in the rich world, even amid the recession.

4. 5 Charts That Perfectly Capture The Incredible Rise Of China

5. How (and why) Africa should solve its own problems

Africa cannot rely on outside people to come and feed our poor or treat our sick, says African businessman and philanthropist Mo Ibrahim. The key is good governance, in both the public and private sectors.

6. World Bank: Africa held back by land ownership confusion

Africa's economic growth is being held back by confusion over who owns vast swathes of agricultural land, according to a World Bank report.

7. Deforestation in Africa's Congo Basin rainforest slows

Tree loss in one of the world's largest rainforests has slowed, a study suggests.

Satellite images of Africa's Congo Basin reveal that deforestation has fallen by about a third since 2000.

Researchers believe this is partly because of a focus on mining and oil rather than commercial agriculture, where swathes of forest are cleared. ...

 8. Brazil's Evangelicals A Growing Force In Prayer, Politics

... Recent polls show that evangelical Christianity is the fastest-growing sect in Brazil. According to the Pew Research Center, 22 percent of the Brazilian population identifies as evangelical Christian — up from 5 percent in 1970. Unfortunately for the Catholic Church, most of them switched from Roman Catholicism.

These days, only about 62 percent of people in Brazil say they are Catholic. In absolute numbers, however, this still makes Brazil the country with the most Catholics in the world. ...

9. For Developing World, a Streamlined Facebook

MENLO PARK, Calif. — Facebook has been quietly working for more than two years on a project that is vital to expanding its base of 1.1 billion users: getting the social network onto the billions of cheap, simple "feature phones" that have largely disappeared in America and Europe but are still the norm in developing countries like India and Brazil.

Facebook soon plans to announce the first results of the initiative, which it calls Facebook for Every Phone: More than 100 million people, or roughly one out of eight of its mobile users worldwide, now regularly access the social network from more than 3,000 different models of feature phones, some costing as little as $20.

Many of those users, who rank among the world's poorest people, pay little or nothing to download their Facebook news feeds and photos, with the data usage subsidized by phone carriers and manufacturers. ...

10. The Huge Threat to Capitalism That Republicans Are Ignoring (I don't agree with a couple of points but I think his thesis is spot on.)

11. Big Racial Divide over Zimmerman Verdict

12. The Wal-Mart Slayer: How Publix's People-First Culture Is Winning The Grocer War

Family-run Publix is both the largest employee-owned company and the most profitable grocer in America. Those two facts are linked, and they might be the formula for fending off Bentonville's retail behemoth. ...

... When a middle-aged woman asks about a box of crackers, no aisle number is blurted out. Instead, an employee races off to find the item, just as he is trained to do. At checkout, shoppers move to the front quickly, thanks to a two-customer-per-line goal enforced by proprietary, predictive staffing software. Baggers, a foggy memory at most large supermarket chains, carry purchases to the parking lot. Even Publix's president, Todd Jones, who started out as a bagger 33 years ago, stoops down to pick up specks of trash on the store floor.

"We believe that there are three ways to differentiate: service, quality and price," Jones says. "You've got to be good at two of them, and the best at one. We make service our number one, then quality and then price."...

... Publix, the seventh-largest private company in the U.S. ($27.5 billion in sales) and one of the least understood thanks to decades of media reticence, is also the largest employee-owned company in America. For 83 years Publix has thrived by delivering top-rated service to its shoppers by turning thousands of its cashiers, baggers, butchers and bakers into the company's largest collective shareholders. All staffers who have put in 1,000 work hours and a year of employment receive an additional 8.5% of their total pay in the form of Publix stock. (Though private, the board sets the stock price every quarter based on an independent valuation; it's pegged at $26.90 now, up nearly 20% already this year.) How rich can employees get? According to Publix, a store manager who has worked at the company for 20 years and earns between $100,000 and $130,000 likely has $300,000 in stock and has received another $30,000 in dividends. ...

 13. Grocery shopping online: Can it replace trips to the store?

The website mySupermarket.com compares the prices of groceries online and works to reduce shipping costs. But a limited selection means grocery store runs aren't a things of the past just yet.

14. 25 Everyday Things Made Obsolete This Century. What would you add to the list?

katmere via Flickr

Saturday Links

1. Public Religion Research Institute: Survey | Do Americans Believe Capitalism and Government are Working?: Religious Left, Religious Right and the Future of the Economic Debate

2. Gallup reports Sub-Saharan Africa Is Wildly Optimistic About Its Future

3. U.S. could lead world oil production by 2017, study says

Domestic shale oil production could shoot up to 5 million barrels per day by 2017, making the United States the top oil producing country in the world, according to a researcher at Harvard Kennedy School.

4. Will Europe Hit a Demographic Tipping Point?

... In 1968 Paul Ehrlich’s doomsday tome The Population Bomb predicted mass starvation and civilizational collapse in much of the world due to overpopulation. But the more serious problem – particularly in traditionally higher-income countries – today is actually too few, not too many new people. The pivot to seeing this as the problem has come through something very basic: pension math. Across the developed world, public pension systems built on the assumption of continued population growth are now facing an actuarial day of reckoning as the bills come due while birth rates have plummeted.

A society needs a total fertility rate – that is, the average number of children born to each woman – of 2.1 just to maintain its population without immigration. Some European countries like France (2.03) and the UK (1.98) are in reasonably good shape, but they are the exception. The total fertility rate in Greece is 1.43, in Germany 1.36, in Spain 1.36, in Portugal 1.30, and in Poland 1.30. Much of southern and central Europe hovers near the so-called “lowest-low” rate of 1.3 in which the population is naturally being cut in half every 45 years.

Simple birth rates alone have caused some to posit a societal going out of business sale in Europe. However, just as extrapolation of high population growth rates in the past led to wildly alarmist claims that proved false, so today we must be careful about not proclaiming Europe is doomed. But with the population on tap to be halved every generation, the runway to turn things around is difficult to conjure. And while we’ve seen many countries make the shift from high to low birth rates, there isn’t a huge track record of success in the other direction. ...

5. Hunger Makes People Work Harder, and Other Stupid Things We Used to Believe About Poverty

The article includes this interesting graph:

6. Forget Microlending. India Needs Basic, Competent Credit Reporting - Businessweek

Development economists talk a lot about credit. Figure out a way to get it to people in a developing economy, rather than just large companies or the state itself, and you can encourage small-scale risk-taking. Microlending offers very small loans to individuals, often $100 or less. The idea won Muhammad Yunus a Nobel Prize in 2006. More recently, microfinance and mobile banking have offered ways to save and insure on a small scale, allowing people take risks with their own money. Speaking in Mumbai earlier this month, K. C. Chakrabarty, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, offered an additional way to expand credit: better credit reporting. No shepherds with phones, no happy mothers of four with new sewing machines. Just credit reporting, plain old attention to detail, and administrative competence.

7. Why We Need to Treat America's Poorest Neighborhoods Like Developing Countries

The article includes maps showing life expectancy across several metropolitan areas. Here is the one for my hometown, Kansas City.

8. Racial Disparities in Life Spans Narrow, but Persist

The gap in life expectancy between black and white Americans is at its narrowest since the federal government started systematically tracking it in the 1930s, but a difference of nearly four years remains, and federal researchers have detailed why in a new report.

9. The Unsettling Link Between Sprawl and Suicide

A new scientific working paper (spotted by Tim De Chant of Per Square Mile) contends that as population density decreases, the suicide rate among young people increases. This effect becomes particularly pronounced below 300 inhabitants per square kilometer — roughly the density of San Diego County.

10. Big Data, for Better or Worse: 90% of World's Data Generated Over Last Two Years

11. The one event that destroyed the PC industry

12. Tweets that got people arrested

13. Religion & Wikipedia: The 'Edit Wars' Rage On

Scientists have analyzed page edits in 10 editions of Wikipedia to determine the topics most often fought over by editors of the open encyclopedia. The most debated topics included many religious subjects, like Jesus and God, according to research done by Taha Yasseri, Anselm Spoerri, Mark Graham, and János Kertész.

Rather than merely citing pages that changed a lot, they identified pages involved in "edit wars," that involved editors making changes that were almost instantly undone by another contributor. This proved the best method of finding controversial pages, as pages often updated could simply belong to a rapidly changing field or topic. However, pages with words and phrases constantly removed and reinserted indicated a passionate disagreement surrounding the issue at hand.

The most controversial pages across all ten editions of Wikipedia were:

• Israel
• Adolf Hitler
• The Holocaust
• God

Other controversial subjects were Jesus, the Prophet Muhammad, and Christianity.

14. The curious case of the fall in crime

... Cherished social theories have been discarded. Conservatives who insisted that the decline of the traditional nuclear family and growing ethnic diversity would unleash an unstoppable crime wave have been proved wrong. Young people are increasingly likely to have been brought up by one parent and to have played a lot of computer games. Yet they are far better behaved than previous generations. Left-wingers who argued that crime could never be curbed unless inequality was reduced look just as silly.

There is no single cause of the decline; rather, several have coincided. Western societies are growing older, and most crimes are committed by young men. Policing has improved greatly in recent decades, especially in big cities such as New York and London, with forces using computers to analyse the incidence of crime; in some parts of Manhattan this helped to reduce the robbery rate by over 95%. The epidemics of crack cocaine and heroin appear to have burnt out.

The biggest factor may be simply that security measures have improved. Car immobilisers have killed joyriding; bulletproof screens, security guards and marked money have all but done for bank robbery. Alarms and DNA databases have increased the chance a burglar will be caught. At the same time, the rewards for burglary have fallen because electronic gizmos are so cheap. Even small shops now invest in CCTV cameras and security tags. Some crimes now look very risky—and that matters because, as every survey of criminals shows, the main deterrent to crime is the fear of being caught. ...

15. By 2030, Half of All Colleges Will Collapse

 

Saturday Links

I skipped Saturday Links last week due to the holiday weekend. I'm catching up this week.

1. Faith in the Free Market

"... Selke, now 36, is part of a vanguard of young Christians who believe that God uses not only the church and formal ministry but every sphere of society, including business and free markets, to advance his work of shalom. Selke parlayed his experience analyzing companies, creating spreadsheets, and evaluating profitable opportunities for an investment bank into helping social entrepreneurs—people who create organizations in order to benefit society.

In 2010, Selke co-founded Hub Ventures, an accelerator in San Francisco investing in entrepreneurs launching companies that produce a social good. The 12-week program provides up to $20,000 in seed funding, mentorship, workshops, and access to investors in exchange for an average of a 6 percent ownership stake. What separates Selke's program from other business accelerators en vogue in Silicon Valley is the focus on "entrepreneurs building technology solutions for a better world," Selke says. ..."

2. The Global Low Fertility Panic: Just a Phase?

"...Our new book, The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty (Yale University Press, 2013) analyzes these trends and the demographic, political and economic consequences and uncertainties as low fertility has become a global phenomenon. Like other facets of globalization, low fertility rates are by no means universal: High fertility persists in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of the Middle East, but elsewhere low fertility is more the rule than the exception. These underlying trends in childbearing mean that in the near future the rate of population growth both in Europe and Asia are likely to decline. The world is not on a path of unrestrained demographic growth, as some believe. People all over the world have hit the brakes.

Thirty years ago only a small fraction of the world's population lived in the few countries with fertility rates substantially below the "replacement level" - the rate at which the fertility of a hypothetical cohort of women would exactly replace itself in the next generation - normally set at 2.1 children per woman for populations with low mortality conditions. Fast forward to 2013, with roughly 60 percent of the world's population living in countries with such below-replacement fertility rates.

The consequences of these changes are striking. ..."

3. Immigration and Entrepreneurship

According to a Small Business Administration-commissioned report in 2012 by Robert W. Fairlie, an economics professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, the business ownership rate is higher for immigrants than the native-born, with 10.5 percent of the immigrant work force owning a business compared with 9.3 percent of the native-born work force.

4. Graft Is On The Rise Around The World

5. Job-Stealing Robots Go Global

Asian workers have scored some victories in rising wages, but many are learning something the West has known for some time: Employers will seek out the cheapest labor on offer, and machines are even cheaper than an underpaid human. In the late 20th century, manufacturing jobs shifted from America to China, then from China to Southeast Asia, and now even those are being automated.

For America, at least, this trend shouldn't be so disconcerting. After all, it's developed economies like ours that are designing the robots Nike is now using. Low-wage manufacturing jobs are drying up, but they're being replaced by jobs in building, operating, and repairing the tech in question. Increasingly, companies will be likely to "onshore" these jobs to America, when shipping and distribution becomes much easier and cheaper. Manufacturing, it seems, will come full circle.

6. Economist Mark Perry with a provocative claim: Yes, the middle-class has been disappearing, but they haven't fallen into the lower-class, they've risen into the upper-class

 

7. Co.exist with what they see as 4 Bogus Claims About Why Walmart Can't Pay A Living Wage (I'm not in full agreement but they make they present their side articulately.)

8. Gallup Has Never Seen So Many Americans Sitting Out Of The Stock Market

9. K-State study: Arguments about money best predictor of divorce

"Results revealed it didn't matter how much you made or how much you were worth," Britt said in the university statement. "Arguments about money are the top predictor for divorce because it happens at all levels."

She said couples should seek a financial planner as part of premarital counseling, and talk about finances.

10. How the Dismal Science Got Its Name (It had nothing to do with Thomas Malthus or scarcity ... or even with students who have suffered through Econ 101 classes.)

 11. Matt Ridley writes I may follow the crowd, but not because it's a crowd

"... My friend objected that I seemed to follow the herd on matters like the reality of evolution and the safety of genetically modified crops, so why not on climate change? Ah, said I, but I don't. I agree with the majority view on evolution, not because it is a majority view but because I have looked at evidence. It's the data that convince me, not the existence of a consensus. ..."

12. Dan Lewis debunks the myth that the end of the telegraph is here: The Spread of a False Fact

13. PC sales see 'longest decline' in history

Global personal computer (PC) sales have fallen for the fifth quarter in a row, making it the "longest duration of decline" in history.

14. Time of 'Incredible Violence': Historian Gives Readers Glimpse of Medieval Life

15. Farming Got Hip In Iran Some 12,000 Years Ago, Ancient Seeds Reveal

Archaeologists digging in the foothills of Iran's Zagros Mountains have discovered the remains of a Stone Age farming community. It turns out that people living there were growing plants like barley, peas and lentils as early as 12,000 years ago.

The findings offer a rare snapshot of a time when humans first started experimenting with farming. They also show that Iran was an important player in the origin of agriculture.

16. LGBT group finds acceptance at evangelical college

"... Fuller's community standards states that "sexual abstinence is required for the unmarried" and marriage is between one man and one woman.

Nevertheless, Fuller's decision not to push back against OneTable is a critical step toward acceptance for gay evangelical students, said Justin Lee, the executive director of the Gay Christian Network, which tracks the burgeoning movement. An increasing number of young people have been coming out on Christian campuses nationwide, whether they are accepted or not, and Fuller's move acknowledges that and provides a touchstone for students who would otherwise keep their sexuality a secret, he said. ..."

17. New generation activists build bridges

A traditional organizing approach makes opponents into 'enemies,' but a new crop of union and other activists is using love and empathy to create alliances and new possibilities.

 

Saturday Links

 1. The High Calling published an article I wrote. I linked it earlier, but here it is again in an act of shameless self-promotion. It goes to some core issues I'm trying to put into a book. Six Ideas on How to Lead Congregations to Integrate Work and Discipleship

2. Should Pastors Know How Much Church Members Give?

A recent study found that churches where pastors know how much is donated and by whom were more likely to be doing well financially. However, only half of the 3,000 responding congregations (and only 39 percent of evangelical ones) told the Lake Institute on Faith and Giving that their pastors knew this information.

What experts said (starting with "yes" and moving to "no" ): ...

3. Model for megacities? Mexico City cleans up its air.

... With urbanization advancing, economies expanding, and climate change a concern, Mexico City has emerged as an unlikely environmental example for cities in developing countries suffering similar air quality issues.

Mexico City recorded only eight days with air quality considered "good" in 1992. That compares with 248 "good" air days in 2012, reflecting the success of initiatives to relocate industry, kick clunkers off the capital's streets, encourage cleaner technologies, and expand public transit and cycling options. ...

4. Unmanned Drones May Have Their Greatest Impact on Agriculture

Talk about beating swords into plowshares. The mention of drones may conjure up images of Star Wars-like spacecraft or hell-fire war machines. But the controversial technology may prove to have its greatest impact in a peaceful endeavor: farming. ...

... The market for agricultural drones lies in the technology's ability to provide farmers with a bird's-eye view of their land. Historically, farmers have walked their land to survey it—looking for areas that need more fertilizer or water. More recently many have begun using small passenger planes to look at their lots from the air. But since airplane rental and fuel costs can quickly run into five figures, there's strong demand for cheaper alternatives. ...

... "Eighty percent of the utilization, once we are allowed to have Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the national airspace, in the first 10 years is going to be in precision agriculture," said Michael Toscano, CEO of AUVSI. "You will have a situation where you can spray crops by a UAS that flies 2 or 3 feet above the plants. You can control the downwash because you can put the pesticides on the plants and not in the ground where it gets to the groundwater."

"It sounds trivial but those numbers really add up a lot," said Rory Paul of Volt Aerial Robotics. "If we could save farms 1 percent on inputs like herbicide and pesticide and increase their yields by 1 percent, you are looking at multibillion dollar savings."...

5. Fascinating piece about the The Historical Horror of Childbirth

... Such stories were not at all shocking, as a woman's chances of dying during childbirth were between one and two percent -for each birth. If a woman gave birth to eight or ten children, her chances of eventually dying in childbirth were pretty high. The infant mortality rate was even higher. The chances of a child dying before his fifth birthday were estimated to be around 20 percent, depending on the community (accurate records are scarce). In addition to the fear of death or the fear of the child dying, there was no pain relief during labor, except for whisky in some places. ...

6. "INDIA will soon have a fifth of the world's working-age population." India's moment

7. 'Late-life crisis' hits the over-60s

"Of the 33% who went through a crisis, bereavement was the most common trigger, followed by personal illness or injury."

8. Hispanic High School Graduates Pass Whites in Rate of College Enrollment

 

9. Atlantic Cities asks the question that has interested me for years: Why Do So Many People Think Gun Violence Is Getting Worse?

"Twenty years into this safer era, we still don't know quite how we got here. Perhaps in absence of a logical narrative, many Americans simply find it hard to believe this is true."

10. People Don't Wear A Shocking Amount Of Their Clothes.

"The average person only wears about 20% of the clothing in his or her closets. Most clothing goes unworn because it's the result of an impulse buy or doesn't fit correctly, Ray A. Smith at the Wall Street Journal reports."

11. This week was the 20th anniversary of the birth of the World Wide Web. The Day Distance Disappeared

12. Great piece! The Tech Trends to Fear the Most: It's Not All Good

13. The market 'bubble' you've never heard of: "Some economists are worried that farmland prices are nearing bubble territory. How bad can it be if no one's heard of it?"

14. Michael Barone says College Bubble Bursts After Decades of Extravagance

15. Whatever happened to these Fortune 500 companies? "Here are seven companies from the first Fortune 500 that have since been merged, split up, or put out to pasture."

16. Dwight Lee has a thought-provoking piece about The Two Moralities of Ebenezer Scrooge.

17. The global economy: Welcome to the post-BRIC world

18. Development finance in Africa

19. Toxic Waste Sites Take Toll on Millions in Poor Nations

New studies attempt to quantify just how harmful the rampant exposure to lead and other chemicals is in the developing world.

20. James Pethokoukis with a provocative article about income inequality: Why A Decline In Income Inequality Would Be Bad News

Why has income inequality been rising in advanced economies — it's not just the US, people — over the past few decades? The economic consensus mostly explains the phenomenon as a race between accelerating technological change and expanding education. And the rise of inequality shows, as JPMorgan economist Mike Feroli puts it in a new report, that the "pace of technological advance has outstripped the ability of the educational system to supply the human capital skills needed to utilize this technology, leading to out-sized earnings gains for those who have such skills (the so-called college wage premium)."...

Saturday Links

1. What a horrific week for Boston and west Texas people. Our prayers are with the many people who have been so deeply traumatized and injured in these events. Regarding how we respond to such events in public discourse, I thought this article from Slate was especially good. Be Meaningful or Be Quiet

"... We need more restraint and less wild guessing. Free-flowing debate in the search for meaning is a part of these moments and a part of the human condition, but what I'm talking about is using tragedy for evidence shopping. That people reach immediately for their pet political theory at moments like this highlights what's wrong with a lot of political debate. But perhaps this moment also offers a useful sorting technique. If you can't shut up now, when either reason, decency, or good taste requires it, you disqualify yourself from the conversation in calmer times. ...

... Political debate about facts is fine. When the White House puts out a picture of the president in the situation room, it's fine to point out that it's propaganda they never put out on Benghazi. But a person who uses tragedy as new evidence in an existing political fight is probably incapable of keeping this window open. They can't pause to honor the solemnity of a moment of tragedy or wait until the facts come in, which means that the facts never really mattered much to them at all. These partisans are ever on alert to advance their relentless claim—whatever it is. Michael Moore immediately fingered Tea Party types after the bombing. In the hours after attack, when authorities questioned a man of Saudi dissent (who was later released), Rep. Steve King tied it to the comprehensive immigration reform he opposes. Nate Bell, an Arkansas state lawmaker, tweeted, "I wonder how many Boston liberals spent the night cowering in their homes wishing they had an AR-15 with a hi-capacity magazine? #2A" There was lots of this from partisans on both sides on Twitter. ..."

2. Are We Losing the Young? Evangelicals by Age Since 1972

3. David Murrow asks Are sermons becoming obsolete?

... So, what does this mean for the church? Is the lecture style sermon going the way of the dinosaur?

Yes and no. There will always be live sermons. But will anyone be listening?

Just as universities are re-thinking the lecture, it might be time for churches to re-think the sermon. Thom and Joani Schultz polled churchgoers and found that just 12 percent could recall the topic of the last sermon they heard. Only five percent of men credited sermons as their primary source of knowledge about God.

So if sermons are becoming obsolete, what will take their place?

Discipleship. Our generation may be drowning in ideas, but we're starving for real human contact.

The problem is, our churches are structured to deliver sermons and music. If there's any energy left, we disciple people. ...

4. First, there was this article about Self-Employment An Escape From Long-Term Joblessness For Some Older Workers. It may work for some who are out of jobs, but Hiranya Fernando warns Why You Shouldn't Quit Your Day Job To Pursue Your Dream. 

To be sure these are inspiring stories. They make us hope and dream. And I support anyone who is dissatisfied with desk jobs and corporate gigs and is now thinking of other options. But my advice is to take the time to understand your specific situation before you do anything purely because "it feels right" or because "it's a childhood dream."

And don't do it because everyone else is. Don't do it because the neighbor's second cousin and Aunt Maggie's daughter are doing it, and it sounds so easy. Even people who are relatively happy in their jobs think something is wrong with them because everywhere they go they are bombarded with "How I quit my day job and started a million-dollar leaf-raking business."

5. Walter Russell Mead Warns There's No Comeback for the PhD

Drezner says that there are really only two reasons why you might get a Ph.D. One, you're crazy; or two, you're crazy about the subject you will be studying. But even the latter is becoming a kind of luxury for those lucky few who can afford to spend several years on a degree without any guarantee of future employment. All others should heed Drezner's advice before surrendering the money, years, blood, and tears it takes to earn the right to be called "Doctor."

6. I suspect the J C Penny fiasco is going to become an important case study for business schools: Sometimes, We Want Prices to Fool Us

7. Max Baucus warns about Obamacare: Obamacare Architect Warns "Huge Train-Wreck" Ahead

8. Eric Wemple quotes Mark Lamont Hill in Gosnell case: HuffPost host says left 'made a decision' to not cover trial

"For what it's worth, I do think that those of us on the left have made a decision not to cover this trial because we worry that it'll compromise abortion rights. Whether you agree with abortion or not, I do think there's a direct connection between the media's failure to cover this and our own political commitments on the left. I think it's a bad idea, I think it's dangerous, but I think that's the way it is."

9. Mother Jones has a great piece on the social psychology of our political leanings: How Science Can Predict Where You Stand on Keystone XL

10. Atlantic Cities says The More Diverse a Metro Is, the More Segregated It's Likely to Be

11. Christian Science Monitor: Babies are conscious? Science confirms what moms know.

Babies are aware of what's going on, not just reflexively reacting to it, scientists concluded after a series of experiments on babies as young as 5 months.

12. Are e-readers hurting our reading comprehension?

13. The future of the car: Clean, safe and it drives itself. See the Economist video about driverless cars.

Yet many people already travel, unwittingly, on planes and trains that no longer need human drivers. As with those technologies, the shift towards driverless cars is taking place gradually. The cars' software will learn the tricks that humans use to avoid hazards: for example, braking when a ball bounces into the road, because a child may be chasing it. Google's self-driving cars have already clocked up over 700,000km, more than many humans ever drive; and everything they learn will become available to every other car using the software. As for the liability issue, the law should be changed to make sure that when cases arise, the courts take into account the overall safety benefits of self-driving technology.

14. University of Illinois: Small in size, big on power: New microbatteries a boost for electronics

 With so much power, the batteries could enable sensors or radio signals that broadcast 30 times farther, or devices 30 times smaller. The batteries are rechargeable and can charge 1,000 times faster than competing technologies – imagine juicing up a credit-card-thin phone in less than a second. In addition to consumer electronics, medical devices, lasers, sensors and other applications could see leaps forward in technology with such power sources available.

"Any kind of electronic device is limited by the size of the battery – until now," King said. "Consider personal medical devices and implants, where the battery is an enormous brick, and it's connected to itty-bitty electronics and tiny wires. Now the battery is also tiny."

Now, the researchers are working on integrating their batteries with other electronics components, as well as manufacturability at low cost.

15. What was old is new again: The Beat Goes On: How Vinyl Records Are Making A Comeback

"Vinyl manufacturing plants are bursting at the seams," said Kurtz. "We took a nascent industry – vinyl – breathed life into it and now we can't even handle the amount of business we are creating."

Incarceration Rates for Blacks Have Fallen Sharply, Report Shows

New York Times: Incarceration Rates for Blacks Have Fallen Sharply, Report Shows

Incarceration rates for black Americans dropped sharply from 2000 to 2009, especially for women, while the rate of imprisonment for whites and Hispanics rose over the same decade, according to a report released Wednesday by a prison research and advocacy group in Washington.

The declining rates for blacks represented a significant shift in the racial makeup of the United States’ prisons and suggested that the disparities that have long characterized the prison population may be starting to diminish.

“It certainly marks a shift from what we’ve seen for several decades now,” said Marc Mauer, the executive director of the Sentencing Project, whose report was based on data from the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, part of the Justice Department. “Normally, these things don’t change very dramatically over a one-decade period.”

The decline in incarceration rates was most striking for black women, dropping 30.7 percent over the ten-year period. In 2000, black women were imprisoned at six times the rate of white women; by 2009, they were 2.8 times more likely to be in prison. For black men, the rate of imprisonment decreased by 9.8 percent; in 2000 they were incarcerated at 7.7 times the rate of white men, a rate that fell to 6.4 times that of white men by 2009.

For white men and women, however, incarceration rates increased over the same period, rising 47.1 percent for white women and 8.5 percent for white men. By the end of the decade, Hispanic men were slightly less likely to be in prison, a drop of 2.2 percent, but Hispanic women were imprisoned more frequently, an increase of 23.3 percent.

Over all, blacks currently make up about 38 percent of inmates in state and federal prisons; whites account for about 34 percent....

Why juvenile incarceration reached its lowest rate in 38 years

Christian Science Monitor: Why juvenile incarceration reached its lowest rate in 38 years

The juvenile incarceration in the US rate has fallen 41 percent in the past 15 years, reaching the lowest level since 1975, a new study finds. What is behind the rapid decline?

Fewer young people are behind bars than at any point since 1975, due in part to lower rates of juvenile crime and a shift away from interventions focused on long-term incarceration.

The number of young people in a correction facility on a single day dropped from a high of 107,637 in 1995 to 70,792 in 2010, according to a new report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation that used data from the US Census Bureau. The incarceration rate – the number of young people confined per 100,000 youths – dropped by 41 percent in the same period. 

The trend might be stronger than the data show, says Bart Lubow, director of the foundation’s Juvenile Justice Strategy Group. Some of the biggest decreases in youth incarceration in some states have occurred in the past two years, and those numbers are not included in the report. ...

The main reasons behind the declining numbers:

• A shift in thinking about the best ways to handle kids who break the law.
• A sustained period of decreasing juvenile crime.
• Fiscal pressures on state governments that have many people – including conservatives who in the past espoused tough-on-crime policies – clamoring for less-expensive alternatives to mass incarceration. ...

... “Even with the drops we’re describing in this report, the US, compared to similarly governed countries like those in Western Europe, has a much, much higher [youth] incarceration rate than any of those places,” he says.

America’s incarceration rate for juveniles is 18 times greater than that of France, and more than seven times greater than that of Great Britain. It’s hard to even compare it with the juvenile incarceration rates in places like Finland or Sweden, where young offenders are seldom locked up. ...

Saturday Links

(Like the Kruse Kronicle on Facebook if you want links to daily posts to appear in your Facebook feed.)

1. Several articles I saw this week reflect on data presented in The Pew Forum's The Global Religious Landscape: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Major Religious Groups as of 2010. Here is one interesting chart from the survey showing what percentage of each religion's adherents live in minority religious status in their own country.

2. This is really fascinating. Smithsonian: Why Japan is Obsessed with Kentucky Fried Chicken on Christmas. “Kurisumasu ni wa kentakkii!” (Kentucky for Christmas!)

3. Four Harvard and MIT grads are experimenting with direct aid to the poor. "GiveDirectly, the brainchild of four Harvard and MIT graduate students, is so simple, it's genius. Give poor Kenyan families $1,000 -- and let them do whatever they want with it." Can 4 Economists Build the Most Economically Efficient Charity Ever?

4. From the Guardian, Private healthcare: the lessons from Sweden

"... Despite its reputation as a leftwing utopia, Sweden is now a laboratory for rightwing radicalism. Over the past 15 years a coalition of liberals and conservatives has brought in for-profit free schools in education, has sliced welfare to pay off the deficit and has privatised large parts of the health service.

Their success is envied by the centre right in Britain. Despite predictions of doom, Sweden's economy continues to grow and its pro-business coalition has remained in power since 2006. The last election was the first time since the war that a centre-right government had been re-elected after serving a full term.

As the state has been shrunk, the private sector has moved in. Göran Dahlgren, a former head civil servant at the Swedish department of health and a visiting professor at the University of Liverpool, says that "almost all welfare services are now owned by private equity firms". ..."

5. Scott Annan writes in The Future Of Business Is Morality, And The Future Is Now

"... We have reached a point in our economy where it is becoming increasingly clear that businesses are being measured not just for their profit, but also for their impact. And I'm not just talking about writing a check or funding a charity; I'm referring to business models for which community involvement and inspirational brand building are the profit centers. (Think Warby Parker, TOMS, and startups such as SOMA.) I recently went to a conference where the founders of a startup posited a powerful idea: the future of marketing is philanthropy. But I think the even bigger idea is the future of business is morality. My grandfather saw this early on.

At a time when the moral framework of America appears to be fractured – or at the very least confused – businesses are in the propitious position to espouse cultural standards that can help restore values that our youth can use to build the next generation of positive enterprise. In fact, whether businesses succeed in creating and promoting positive cultures might determine whether they stay in business at all. The future of business is morality, and the future is now.

Whether it's the job of the corporation or not to set the moral tone for society, the expectation is trending towards companies setting the right example for others to follow. With the sharp rise in entrepreneurship, young companies have the opportunity to establish strong cultures early on and share them with their communities. Money must have a moral center, and from greater consciousness in business, greater profit will follow. ..."

6. Scientific American asks, After 40 Years, Has Recycling Lived Up to Its Billing?

7. AOL has a short piece about the rise of small nuclear reactors. The Next Big Thing in Nuclear Power: Going Small

8. Scientific American has a list of The Top 10 Science Stories of 2012.

9. Depression Surpasses Asthma as Top Disability Problem among U.S. and Canadian Teens

"New data show an increasing contribution of mental and behavioral disorders to deterioration in the health-related quality of life among teens in the U.S. and Canada over the past two decades, and increases elsewhere around the globe."

10. Robotic arm controlled by the mind allows paraplegic woman to feed herself

11. Interesting piece on Why We Prefer Masculine Voices (Even in Women).

12. Atlantic Cities looks into The Mystery of Our Declining Mobility.

13. People Are Leaving California In Record Numbers

More people moved out of California in 2011 than moved in, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling that the Democrat-run state's economic woes continue to drive residents away.

Most statisticians attribute California's net loss of 100,000 people last year to its high cost of living, increased population density and troubling unemployment rate.

The widening middle class in Mexico is also encouraging some immigrants to remain in that country instead of moving to California.

Texas — home to lower taxes, less regulation and what the Manhattan Institute calls a "labor pool with the right skills at the right price" — is one of the most attractive destinations for companies departing from California, according to the Census Bureau. ...

14. The United States Has Seen A Huge Drop In Executions Since 2000.

"The country reported 85 executions in 2000 but only 43 in 2012, according to a new report released by the Death Penalty Information Center. Plus, far fewer people are being sentenced to death row in the first place. The year 2000 saw 224 new inmates sentenced to death, while 2012 saw only 78, according to the report."

15. Conor Friedersdorf at the Atlantic had a great piece: Why 'If We Can Just Save One Child ...' Is a Bad Argument, referring to President Obama's statement at Newtown, CT. When dealing with complex topics like gun control, we always talk about tradeoffs. For instance, I know how we can save more than 30,000 lives. There were 32,367 traffic fatalities last year. Let's set the speed limit to 5 miles per hour. Nearly all those lives would be saved. Should we do this "if we can save just one more life"? I, like Friedersforf, am not advocating any particular policy. I'm just pointing out the absurdity of making such statements, as politicians often do.

16. The New York Times has an opinion piece by John Dickerson, The Decline of Evangelical America

"I found that the structural supports of evangelicalism are quivering as a result of ground-shaking changes in American culture. Strategies that served evangelicals well just 15 years ago are now self- destructive. The more that evangelicals attempt to correct course, the more they splinter their movement. In coming years we will see the old evangelicalism whimper and wane."

He speaks of an Evangelical "collapse" having happened. That may be a bit premature, but his articulation of trends is right.

17. I saw two interesting posts on the sociology Facebook this week. The New York Times had a piece about announcing bad news on Facebook: On Facebook, Bad With the Good. Mashable reports that Socioeconomic Status Predicts Number of Facebook Friends.

18. Gangnam Style hits one billion views on YouTube. K pop rules!

2012's Year in Maps

The Atlantic Cities has a piece about ten interesting maps from 2012. Year in Review: 2012's Year in Maps The map below is just one of them.

"Mayor Bloomberg's insistent support for the NYPD's Stop and Frisk policy has been the single most contentious policy of his tenure, and WNYC's illustration of where the stops occur makes clear why. For one thing, it gives a geographic base to the racially biased search data. As I wrote in August, the mix of those subjected to the humiliating procedure sometimes varies from population data by a factor of nine: "last year, black and Hispanic men between the ages of 14 and 24 accounted for 41.6 percent of stops, though they make up only 4.7 percent of the city's population." According to the same ACLU report from which that data comes, "the number of stops of young black men exceeded the entire city population of young black men (168,126 as compared to 158,406)."

Most importantly, though, the map shows that blocks with large numbers of searches don't yield more guns than blocks with fewer searches."

Mass Shootings vs. Mass Public Shootings.

I wrote a post on Monday, A Historical Perspective on Violence and Murder in the United States, that included this graph:

(Source: Opinion: The Rise and Decline of Mass Shootings – Grant Duwe)

A mass shooting is four or more people murdered in 24 hours. A mass public shooting occurs in a public place like a business or a school but excludes events like domestic killings, gang violence, and robbery attempts. Brad Plummer at The Washington Post has a chart today that shows the instances of all mass shootings (Graph of the day: Perhaps mass shootings aren’t becoming more common.)

Consistent with the thesis of my post, this graph does not show a society spiraling out of control with violence. It shows a remarkably stable pattern, which is well above the rates for other OECD nations.

A Historical Perspective on Violence and Murder in the United States

The horrific massacre in Newton, Connecticut, is sparking debate about guns and violence, as well it should. As the discussion gets underway, I think it is helpful to understand where we stand in the flow of history as it relates to violence in the United States. Here are a few things to consider.

Below is data from the most recent FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The annual report compiles reported crimes. Its strength is the use of hard data. Its biggest weakness is the absence of unreported crime. The willingness of people to report crime varies by type of crime, and their willingness to report may change over time. Also, law enforcement’s diligence with different types of crime may change over time. Tougher enforcement can lead to fewer incidents of actual crime, even as incidents of reported crime rise. Nevertheless, the UCR is an important measure.

Crimes are grouped into two categories:

• Violent - murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.
• Property - burglary, larceny theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson.

Violent crime is at a forty-year low.

A second measure is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Twice a year, surveys ask members of households if they have been victims of particular crimes, reported or not. The strength of the survey is that it captures unreported crime. A weakness may be that some crimes, like domestic violence, are underreported.

The NCVS is also broken into two categories:  

• Violent - rape, robbery, and assault.
• Property - burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft.

(A different methodology was used in 2006, which makes it incomparable with other years. Also, 2011 data has been published and shows an uptick in crime. However, the 2002 and 2010 data in the recent report, used as comparison points, do not match earlier publications, and I have yet to determine why. I chose not to include it here until I better understand.)

An interesting question: Was there truly less crime fifty years ago, or were people simply less likely to report crimes? I doubt there is a definitive answer. Murder is sometimes used as a proxy for overall violence in society. Here is the United States murder rate per 100,000 population:

 

Additionally, there is this estimation of the murder rate over the last 300 years. (Source: The Public Intellectual)

The lowest murder rate ever was 4.6 in 1963. It was 4.7 in 2011.

It can conclusively be said that violence in American society is not spiraling out of control. We are living in one of the least violent eras in American history. But this is not the whole story.

Duke sociologist Kieran Healy published this graph a few months ago. (Source: America Is a Violent Country)

(Go to the source linked above for info about individual countries.)

The 4.7 homicide rate for the United States is a near-record low, but it is still two or three times the rate of other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations. Guns are a big part of this difference. The good news is the precipitous decline in aggravated deaths. The bad news is how much more violence there is in the United States compared to other nations, even at all-time lows.

The final issue is the number of mass shootings. The Associated Press had this article No rise in mass killings, but their impact is huge. The article notes:

… And yet those who study mass shootings say they are not becoming more common.

"There is no pattern, there is no increase," says criminologist James Allen Fox of Boston's Northeastern University, who has been studying the subject since the 1980s, spurred by a rash of mass shootings in post offices.

The random mass shootings that get the most media attention are the rarest, Fox says. Most people who die of bullet wounds knew the identity of their killer. …

… Grant Duwe, a criminologist with the Minnesota Department of Corrections who has written a history of mass murders in America, said that while mass shootings rose between the 1960s and the 1990s, they actually dropped in the 2000s. And mass killings actually reached their peak in 1929, according to his data. He estimates that there were 32 in the 1980s, 42 in the 1990s and 26 in the first decade of the century.

Chances of being killed in a mass shooting, he says, are probably no greater than being struck by lightning.

Still, he understands the public perception - and extensive media coverage - when mass shootings occur in places like malls and schools. "There is this feeling that could have been me. It makes it so much more frightening." …

Here is a graph showing mass public murders (defined as four or more murders in 24 hours) by decade over the past 100 years. (Source: Opinion: The Rise and Decline of Mass Shootings – Grant Duwe)

 
(I realize that does not seem to square with the statement about mass shootings peaking in 1929. I suspect a typo, and "1999" was what was intended.)

This data was reported in March 2010. According to a recent Los Angeles Times article, Deadliest U.S. mass shootings, nine mass shootings in the United States have occurred in the first three years of this decade. That projects out to thirty for this decade. But there have been five mass shootings in the last five months. There clearly has been an uptick in mass shootings over the past year.

On a final note, the Sandy Hook massacre involved young children at school. Over the past twenty years, the number of children 5-18 years old murdered at school has ranged from a low of 14 (school years ending in 2000 and 2001) and a high of 34 (schools years ending 1993 and in 1998.) (Source: Indicators of School Safety: 2011) According to an article in the Guardian, Mass shootings at schools and universities in the US – timeline, over the last fifty years there have been six school mass shootings (including Sandy Hook) that have taken the lives of children 5-18. Three mass shootings occurred at primary schools (Stockton, CA, in 1989; Nickel Mines, PA, 2006; and now Sandy Hook.)

So here are a few observations and comments:

1. The United States has an excessively violent culture.
2. Violence has lessened significantly in recent years. We are not spiraling into chaos.
3. Guns are an important factor in the excessive homicide rates. I don't know why citizens need to own semi-automatic weapons. But more than access to these guns needs to be addressed here.
4. While a case can be made that mass murders have been declining in the long run, their sudden frequency in recent months is alarming (five in five months).
5. Nothing said above should detract from our outrage at the senseless deaths of innocent children and their teachers. But Friday’s shooting should not make us despair that things are spiraling out of control. Friday’s shooting should motivate us to ask anew how we can accelerate our march toward becoming a less violent society.

Update: You may also want to see 6 Timelines That Explain America's Persistent Gun Culture

Saturday Links

(Like the Kruse Kronicle on Facebook if you want links to daily posts to appear in your Facebook feed.)

1. Pray for Egypt Today!

More than 50 million Egyptians are voting today on a constitution that would be a giant step backward for Egypt and much of the Middle East, marginalizing women and religious minorities. A nation that has historically been a voice of moderation, the largest Muslim nation in the region, will likely move toward becoming an Islamist state. Remember to pray for Egypt. (See the Economist's The Founding Brothers)

2. Our prayers are with the victims' families at the Sandy Hook elementary school. Grace and peace to the entire community.

In the wake of the horrific shooting, more debate about gun control will surface. The Atlantic has some useful charts showing Americans' nuanced take on gun rights and control. Do Americans Want More or Less Gun Control? Both, Actually The Christian Science Monitor also has this piece: What gun control laws might US voters support?

3. Traffic deaths in 2011 fewest in six decades

Traffic deaths in the USA continued their historic decline last year, falling to the lowest level since 1949, the government announced Monday.

A total of 32,367 motorists, bicyclists and pedestrians died in 2011, a 1.9% decrease from 2010. Last year’s toll represents a 26% decline from 2005, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. ...

4. Obesity in Young Is Seen as Falling in Several Cities

... The trend has emerged in big cities like New York and Los Angeles, as well as smaller places like Anchorage, Alaska, and Kearney, Neb. The state of Mississippi has also registered a drop, but only among white students.

“It’s been nothing but bad news for 30 years, so the fact that we have any good news is a big story,” said Dr. Thomas Farley, the health commissioner in New York City, which reported a 5.5 percent decline in the number of obese schoolchildren from 2007 to 2011....

5. In Girl’s Last Hope, Altered Immune Cells Beat Leukemia

....The experiment, in April, used a disabled form of the virus that causes AIDS to reprogram Emma’s immune system genetically to kill cancer cells. ...

... The research is still in its early stages, and many questions remain. The researchers are not entirely sure why the treatment works, or why it sometimes fails. One patient had a remission after being treated only twice, and even then the reaction was so delayed that it took the researchers by surprise. For the patients who had no response whatsoever, the team suspects a flawed batch of T-cells. The child who had a temporary remission apparently relapsed because not all of her leukemic cells had the marker that was targeted by the altered T-cells. ...

6. The CDC says Chlamydia, gonorrhea cases increasing

....In 2011, 1.4 million chlamydia infections were reported to the CDC. The rate of cases per 100,000 people increased 8%, to 457.6 in 2011 from 423.6 in 2010.

The CDC reported 321,849 gonorrhea infections. The rate increased 4% to 104.2 cases per 100,000 in 2011 from 100.2 in 2010. Like chlamydia, gonorrhea can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease, a major cause of infertility in women.

Last year, 13,970 primary and secondary syphilis cases were reported. The rate of 4.5 cases per 100,000 was unchanged from 2010. ...

7. You may be bilingual, but can you write in two languages, one with each hand, at the same time?!

8. Washington State Senate: Republicans Claim Majority After Democrats Defect. That makes two states where Democrats have won majorities in the state Senate and then a small number of Democrats decide to caucus with Republicans, giving Republicans the majority. The same thing happened in the New York Senate last week.

9. One-party dominance grows in states

10. Kevin Drum of Mother Jones speculates on why liberals have more exaggerated perceptions of political differences. We Are More Alike Than We Think

11. A surprising "right to work" bill was signed into law in Michigan. That has spurred much debate about unions and the right to work. Michael Kinsley wrote a thoughtful piece opposing RTW, The Liberal Case Against Right-to-Work Laws. David Henderson has a piece in support of RTW, The Economics of "Right to Work".

12. Slate has a piece about The Great Schism in the Environmental Movement. Keith Kloor opines on the division between modernist environmentalists (or eco-pragmatists) and conservation traditionalists.

... Modernist greens don't dispute the ecological tumult associated with the Anthropocene. But this is the world as it is, they say, so we might as well reconcile the needs of people with the needs of nature. To this end, Kareiva advises conservationists to craft "a new vision of a planet in which nature—forests, wetlands, diverse species, and other ancient ecosystems—exists amid a wide variety of modern, human landscapes."

This shift in thinking is already under way. For example, ecologists increasingly appreciate (and study) the diversity of species and importance of ecosystem services in cities, giving rise to the discipline of urban ecology. That was unthinkable at the dawn of the modern environmental movement 50 years ago, when greens loathed cities as the antithesis of wilderness. ...

13. One of the creepiest Twilight Zone episodes I remember from childhood was when this woman ends up trapped in a department store at night. The mannequins begin calling to her. She discovers she is actually a mannequin who has overstayed her time out in the world, and it is time for the next mannequin to spend some time outside the store. This story confirms my worst nightmares: In Some Stores, the Mannequins Are Watching You

14. Carpe Diem: World manufacturing output, 2011

15. One of the biggest concerns about fracking technology is the enormous amount of water it uses. A company has figured out how to recycle water so that far less water is used in fracking. Solving fracking's biggest problem

16. Scientific American has an interesting article on the potential impact of 3-D Printing: Why 3-D Printing Matters for "Made in U.S.A."

... 3D printing represents the latest version of what industry experts call "additive manufacturing" — a way to turn practically any computer designs into real objects by building them up layer-by-layer using plastics, metals or other materials. The technology could end up affecting every major industry — aerospace, defense, medicine, transportation, food, fashion — and have an even bigger impact on U.S. manufacturing than the robot revolution. ...

17. Popular Mechanics is celebrating its 110th anniversary. In celebration, they are publishing 110 Predictions For the Next 110 Years.

18. Scot McKnight has a great post reflecting on the (false, IMO) equation of progressive with prophetic: The Prophetic is the Progressive

19. Dirk Kurbjuweit offers some interesting insights into Why Germany Can't Shed Its Troubling Past.

20. Michael Cheshire has a great piece in Leadership Journal on "What I learned about grace and redemption through my friendship with a Christian pariah." Going To Hell with Ted Haggard

".... A while back I was having a business lunch at a sports bar in the Denver area with a close atheist friend. He's a great guy and a very deep thinker. During lunch, he pointed at the large TV screen on the wall. It was set to a channel recapping Ted's fall. He pointed his finger at the HD and said, "That is the reason I will not become a Christian. Many of the things you say make sense, Mike, but that's what keeps me away."

It was well after the story had died down, so I had to study the screen to see what my friend was talking about. I assumed he was referring to Ted's hypocrisy. "Hey man, not all of us do things like that," I responded. He laughed and said, "Michael, you just proved my point. See, that guy said sorry a long time ago. Even his wife and kids stayed and forgave him, but all you Christians still seem to hate him. You guys can't forgive him and let him back into your good graces. Every time you talk to me about God, you explain that he will take me as I am. You say he forgives all my failures and will restore my hope, and as long as I stay outside the church, you say God wants to forgive me. But that guy failed while he was one of you, and most of you are still vicious to him." Then he uttered words that left me reeling: "You Christians eat your own. Always have. Always will."

He was running late for a meeting and had to take off. I, however, could barely move. I studied the TV and read the caption as a well-known religious leader kept shoveling dirt on a man who had admitted he was unclean. And at that moment, my heart started to change. I began to distance myself from my previously harsh statements and tried to understand what Ted and his family must have been through. When I brought up the topic to other men and women I love and respect, the very mention of Haggard's name made our conversations toxic. Their reactions were visceral."

21. Leonardo Bonucci got a yellow card for faking a collision during a soccer game. It should have been a red card. No one deserves to be a professional soccer player with acting skills this bad!

Why Newly-Released Prisoners Make Great Entrepreneurs

Business Insider has an article, Why Newly-Released Prisoners Make Great Entrepreneurs.

Jeff Smith, a former Missouri State senator, spent a year in prison for conspiracy and attempt to obstruct the Federal Election Commission during his 2004 campaign.

During that year, he learned that prison is filled with men learning lessons similar to those in a first year MBA class.

Smith spoke about his experience in a TED talk in June. ...

... When you are starting a business from the ground up, you don't have many resources, and have to raise money in whatever way you can. If inmates can give haircuts with toenail clippers, as Smith describes, or make meals from stolen scraps at a warehouse, they could be the perfect people to start companies once they are freed.

The only problem, Smith explains, is the lack of training and rehabilitation the men receive while in prison. His talk ends with a call to action to train prisoners that have an innate entrepreneurial spirit.

Below I included Smith's five-minute TED talk, but I wonder if Smith knows of Prison Entrepreneurship Program. The second video is Ryan Mack, author of Living in the Village, talking about PEP.

 

Saturday Links

I spend considerable time scanning headlines each week as I look for stories to blog about at the Kruse Kronicle. I clip them into an Evernote Notebook and usually twice a day, I select one or two to link and discuss. Several interesting stories never make it onto the blog.

So this week, I'm beginning what I hope will be a regular Saturday feature. Each Saturday, I will post links I did not use the previous week. For now, I will call it "Saturday Links." Happy clicking!

1. Interesting video intro to Gen IV Nuclear Power at the Catalyst: Next Generation Nuclear Power

2. BBC L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter. Scientists found guilty of bad predictions about an earthquake. That will put a chill in the scientific community.

3. Icon of the American Libertarian movement, Murray Rothbard, once asked, "Why won't the left acknowledge the difference between deserving poor and undeserving poor? Why support the feckless, lazy & irresponsible?" Chris Dillow gives a libertarian response affirming the need to support the undeserving poor.

4. I love historical restoration. The Atlantic has a great piece, Scientists Recover the Sounds of 19th-Century Music and Laughter From the Oldest Playable American Recording, about how scientists have restored a phonograph recording made in 1878 in St. Louis.

5. Chronicle of Philanthropy says Most Donors Plan to Give as Much or More in 2012, Survey Finds.

6. How did those Easter Island statues get into place? California State University archaeologists think they have the answer. See Easter Island Statues Could Have 'Walked' Into Positions in Wired. Here is the YouTube clip:

So where did they get the rope?

7. Think you "bought" a book for your Kindle? Gizmodo says think again: You Don't Own the Books on Your Kindle.

8. BBC has a report on the stuff people are printing with 3D printers:

But then there is also The Dark Side of 3D Printing.

9. Bryan Caplan explains that the rate of executions per capita in the U. S. has been in monotonic decline over the nation's history: U.S. Executions Per Capita Have Been Falling for 400 Years.

He writes:

"I can easily imagine my graph in a Julian Simon or Steven Pinker chapter on human progress and the decline in violence. Even though I have no philosophical objection to the death penalty, it's hard not to interpret this 400-year pattern as a strong sign of human betterment."

10. Mark Roberts has a great piece about cross-generational misunderstandings using social media: Living in the Brave New World of Social Media: Posting a Death on Facebook

11. American Association of University Women (AAUW) says pay inequity begins right out of college: Does gender pay gap exist? Right out of college, says new study. But Elizabeth Dwoskin says "not so fast" on attributing this all to discrimination: Why Women Earn Less Than Men a Year Out of School.

12. Wildcat football rising! Kansas State moves up to No. 3  EMAW!

13. Sporting KC finishes first place in East with 2-1 win over Philadelphia Union. Awesome!

The Root of the Problem Over-Incarceration and Money

Breakpoint: The Root of the Problem Over-Incarceration and Money

[Eric Metaxas] On my last two broadcasts, I talked about the abuses and other violations of human dignity that are all too common in American prisons and jails. While many factors contribute to these abuses, one stands head and shoulders above the rest: America incarcerates far too many people.

This won't come as a surprise to long-time BreakPoint listeners: Chuck repeatedly made this point over the years. But what might surprise you is the role that money plays in our over-reliance on incarceration.

Plainly stated, there's money to be made in operating prisons and supplying them with everything from food to phone service.

And when there's money to be made, politics will follow. And politicians make the laws about whom to lock up and for how long. ...

... The biggest beneficiaries of this arrangement are local sheriff departments, which operate their facilities as businesses with the profits paying for local law enforcement.

The state pays them $24.39 a day, well below the national average, for each state prisoner they incarcerate. As a result, many "inmates subsist in bare-bones conditions with few programs to give them a better shot at becoming productive citizens," since the cost of doing better would cut into the sheriff departments' profits.

Naturally, those who benefit from the system make sure that Louisiana has some of the harshest sentencing practices in the world: for instance, "a two-time car burglar can get 24 years without parole."...

Markets don't solve everything. The steep investment in a "supply" of prison cells means for-profit firms will seek a sufficient "demand" for those cells, i.e., putting pressure on the political system to ensure a steady flow of convicts. The justice system becomes perverted. If there are to be for-profit firms, then the market incentives need to be structured to reward just outcomes. I'm not sure what that market would look like.

Hits, and Misses, in a War on Bribery

New York Times: Hits, and Misses, in a War on Bribery

Until recently, federal prosecutors had won settlements in nearly every battle involving charges of foreign bribery by multinational corporations and their executives. But in late February — indeed, the very week that Mr. Stanley was sentenced — the Justice Department had an embarrassing setback: it abruptly withdrew the biggest case ever brought against individuals under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

It was an extraordinary turn of events. The F.B.I. had recorded 800 hours of video and audio as part of a sting operation involving supposed arms contracts in Africa. Twenty-two executives had been arrested.

Then the whole case fell apart. In a withering appraisal, the federal judge in the case, Richard J. Leon, called the government’s effort “a long and sad chapter in the annals of white-collar criminal enforcement.” Its approach to the law, Judge Leon said, had been “very, very aggressive.”

THE development opened the door for critics who assert that federal authorities have overstepped in trying to fight corruption overseas. They say that the crackdown, which began in earnest three years ago, has made it harder for companies to win legitimate business and that it has needlessly instilled fear among executives. Many companies would rather make any charges brought under the act go away with a quick settlement than try to fight them in court.

“We are seeing companies getting scooped up in aggressive enforcement actions and investigations,” said Lisa A. Rickard, president of the United States Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for Legal Reform, which is pushing to modify the law. “A culture of overzealousness has grabbed the Justice Department.”

“The last time I checked,” Ms. Rickard added, “we were not living in a police state.”

Such heated criticism aside, federal authorities say they are unbowed.

Lanny A. Breuer, the assistant United States attorney general who has stepped up enforcement actions under the act, said he saw no reason to change course. In fact, he is expanding his staff — and his range of potential targets. ...

... AS they pursue their overall campaign, federal authorities have their work cut out for them. As business has gone global, so has graft, particularly as companies in rich nations push into poorer regions. The World Bank estimates that $1 trillion in bribes is paid annually to government officials. In Africa alone, $148 billion is siphoned off annually, according to Transparency International, a global nonprofit group that tracks corruption. ...

... Leading the efforts to modernize the corruption act — or weaken it, in the eyes of the government — is the Chamber of Commerce. The group, in Washington, has been in discussions with the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission about new guidelines on enforcement. That guidance, expected later this spring, would give corporations a better notion of what they need to do to stay on the right side of the law.

Corporate America clearly wants its views heard.

“You are dealing with criminal liability, and that strikes fear and terror through the heart of the corporate suite,” said Ms. Rickard at the chamber.

In a letter signed by more than 30 trade associations, the chamber asks that the guidance allow companies with strong compliance programs to use that as a defense against liability. It also asks that the definition of a “foreign official” be more limited and that companies not be held accountable for the past wrongdoing of foreign companies they may purchase, among other provisions. ...

... Mr. Breuer and other government lawyers have spoken out against the provisions. They have been joined by 33 human rights groups, including Amnesty International, Oxfam America and Transparency International. ...

Bras offer trafficking victims freedom

CDC Update on US Trends

Knology: Homicide drops off US list of top causes of death

ATLANTA (AP) — For the first time in almost half a century, homicide has fallen off the list of the nation's top 15 causes of death, bumped by a lung illness that often develops in elderly people who have choked on their food. ...

The CDC's latest annual report on deaths contained several nuggets of good news:

—The infant mortality rate dropped to an all-time low of 6.14 deaths per 1,000 births in 2010. It was 6.39 the year before.

—U.S. life expectancy for a child born in 2010 was about 78 years and 8 months, up about a little more than one month from life expectancy for 2009.

—Heart disease and cancer remain the top killers, accounting for nearly half the nation's more than 2.4 million deaths in 2010. But the death rates from them continued to decline.

— Death rates for five other leading causes of death also dropped in 2010, including stroke, chronic lower respiratory diseases, accidents, flu/pneumonia and blood infections.

But death rates increased for Alzheimer's disease, which is the nation's sixth-leading killer, kidney disease (No. 8), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (No. 12), Parkinson's disease (No. 14) and pneumonitis.

The report is drawn from a review of at least 98 percent of the death certificates filed in the U.S. in 2010.

Corrosive Corruption

Economist: Corrosive Corruption

A correlation between corruption and development

THE use of public office for private gain benefits a powerful few while imposing costs on large swathes of society. Transparency International's annual Corruption Perceptions Index, published on December 1st, measures the perceived levels of public-sector graft by aggregating independent surveys from across the globe. Just five non-OECD countries make the top 25: Singapore, Hong Kong, Barbados, Bahamas and Qatar. The bottom is formed mainly of failed states, poor African countries and nations that either were once communist (Turkmenistan) or are still run along similar lines (Venezuela, Cuba). Comparing the corruption index with the UN's Human Development Index (a measure combining health, wealth and education), demonstrates an interesting connection. When the corruption index is between approximately 2.0 and 4.0 there appears to be little relationship with the human development index, but as it rises beyond 4.0 a stronger connection can be seen. Outliers include small but well-run poorer countries such as Bhutan and Cape Verde, while Greece and Italy stand out among the richer countries.

This illustrates why government-to-government aid is often so ineffective, if not destructive, putting more money and power in the hands of corrupt leaders. Other forms of aid that go directly to people and small communities while pushing for freedom of the press and government transparency are usually more effective development strategies.

 

 

 

Homocide Rates by Nation

The Economist: Murder most foul

Leavenworth prison farm trains inmates, feeds needy

KansasCity.com: Leavenworth prison farm trains inmates, feeds needy

Prison food has never enjoyed a great reputation. But the quarter million pounds of produce grown annually by inmates at the United States Penitentiary at Leavenworth just might change that. It’s fresh, free, feeds the less fortunate and even has helped inmates get good jobs after being released — all without costing taxpayers a nickel.

Wait. A prison farm?

Believe it or not, an ecologically responsible one. Carefully screened volunteer inmates from Leavenworth’s minimum-security prison camp are allowed outside the secure perimeter to grow tomatoes, potatoes, sweet corn, watermelon, onions, radishes and other crops. Prisoners who work on the farm are serving time for a variety of non-violent crimes, including wire fraud, mail fraud and embezzlement.

Last year more than 80,000 pounds of produce grown by prisoners went to help feed the needy throughout the greater Kansas City area. This year, estimates put donated produce at up to 200,000 pounds.

Joe Mason, Leavenworth’s food service manager, started the prison’s Therapy and Mentor Horticulture program in 2008 with groundskeeper and garden supervisor Don Sargent.

By law, the U.S. Bureau of Prisons cannot use federal money for community programs. But Mason had an idea that made the farm possible. He designed it to be funded by outside donations and brought the idea to Brian Habjan, a Leavenworth banker who was at the time also president of the Leavenworth Chamber of Commerce. ...

... Virtually all equipment used for the farm is donated or is free government surplus. The seeds are also donated by a Leavenworth domestic violence shelter, the Alliance Against Family Violence, and funded by civic groups, including the Leavenworth Lions Club. Debbie Weaverling, president of the club, said a member named Sam Maxwell brought the prison garden to her attention.

“What they produce is phenomenal,” Weaverling said. “We’re so happy to be part of the program.”

The way Mason sees it, a prison farm just makes sense.

“Everybody wins,” he said. “The environment wins. The institution wins. The inmates win. The community wins. Everybody’s winning here.”

Here’s how. ...

I think it's time we broke for lunch…

The Economist: Higher education: The latest bubble?

... A paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describes how Shai Danziger of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and his colleagues followed eight Israeli judges for ten months as they ruled on over 1,000 applications made by prisoners to parole boards. The plaintiffs were asking either to be allowed out on parole or to have the conditions of their incarceration changed. The team found that, at the start of the day, the judges granted around two-thirds of the applications before them. As the hours passed, that number fell sharply (see chart), eventually reaching zero. But clemency returned after each of two daily breaks, during which the judges retired for food. The approval rate shot back up to near its original value, before falling again as the day wore on. ...

Something to keep in mind if you ever must go to court.

Global Corruption Index

Graphic.is: Gobal Corruption (HT: Poverty News Blog)

Identifying a billion Indians

Economist: Identifying a billion Indians

Reliable identity numbers could create many opportunities for business.

IN A small village north-west of Bangalore, peasants queue for identities. Each man fills in a form with his name and rough date of birth, or gets someone who can read to do it for him. He places his fingertips on one scanner and stares at another. A photograph of his face is snapped. These images are uploaded to a computer. Within a few weeks he will have an identity number.

The Indian government is trying to give all 1.2 billion Indians something like an American Social Security number, but more secure. Because each “universal identity number” (UID) will be tied to biometric markers, it will prove beyond reasonable doubt that anyone who has one is who he says he is. In a country where hundreds of millions of people lack documents, addresses or even surnames, this will be rather useful. It should also boost a wide range of businesses.

So far the process has gone smoothly. More than 1m people have been enrolled since October, and the pace is accelerating. It needs to: 1m is less than 0.1% of the population. The scheme presents difficulties both for the people in charge, many of whom were recruited from software firms, and for the private contractors who are doing much of the work. How do you ensure that the data are accurate? How do you build a robust database containing biometric information about more people than any other? How do you deal with peasants whose fingerprints are unreadable after years of manual work? (Adding moisture to their fingertips helps.)

When an individual is enrolled, his biometric data must be compared with everyone else’s to ensure there is no duplication. Sometimes the workers who show people how to place their fingers on the scanner accidentally scan their own fingerprints. As enrolments hit a peak of about 1m a day, the system will need to carry out a staggering 14 billion matches per second.

This mighty task has been awarded to private contractors in an unusual way. There are three vendors: Accenture and L-1 Identity Solutions of America, plus Morpho of France. The firm that does the fastest, most accurate job gets 50% of the work; the others get 30% or 20%. This allocation is frequently reassessed, so if the second-best firm starts doing better, it picks up some work from the leading firm. This keeps everyone sharp.

One database, many possibilities

The government’s aim is to improve services and reduce corruption. A shocking two-thirds of the subsidised grain that the government allocates to the poor is either stolen or adulterated. When middlemen say they have delivered so many bags of rice to so many thousands of peasants, there is no way to tell if they are lying. But if each peasant has to scan her irises every time she picks up her ration, it will be harder to scam the system. Similar controls could be used to curb voter fraud.

A reliable way of identifying people would also smooth financial transactions. ...

Increasing Violence?

We are now forty-eight hours into the news cycle for the tragedy in Arizona. I hear many commentators and religious leaders decrying the increasing violence in our culture, a common refrain each time an event like this occurs. Without diminishing the suffering and sorrow of those involved, it is important to keep in mind a larger context.

Here are two charts. The first one shows the rate of murders per 100,000 people. Note that the 2009 murder rate (5.0) is less than half its all-time high in 1980 (10.2). It is the lowest since 1964.

The second chart shows violent crimes per 1,000 persons. These are not crimes reported to police. These are people reporting victimization through the National Crime Victimization Survey administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. It is considered the most reliable indicator of actual incidents. Note that the 2009 rate (17.1) is less than one-third of the all-time high rate (51.7) in 1979. It is the lowest since the survey began in 1973.

We are not in an era of increasing violence.

Furthermore, it seems to be taken for granted by many that this was a politically motivated event. Some want to see a cause-and-effect relationship between rancorous politics and this killing. So far, I haven't seen much that confirms this. The killer appears not to have been motivated by opposition to health care legislation or raising taxes. He was not irritated about illiteracy, grammar, and language. Every indication is that he is suffering from severe mental illness.

I think we should grieve this tragedy and comfort those who mourn. But if we are going to address societal problems well, we must resist the impulse to fly off into emotional and ideological frenzies and actually address the problems that face us. So far, this incident says far more to me about mental health care and access to firearms than it does about politics.

Grace and peace to those whose lives have been so painfully touched by this horrific attack.

Prison Count 2010: State Population Declines for the First Time in 38 Years

Pew: Prison Count 2010: State Population Declines for the First Time in 38 Years

[I'm five months behind in learning this but better late than never. HT: Beau Weston]

For the first time in nearly 40 years, the number of state prisoners in the United States has declined, according to "Prison Count 2010," a new survey by the Pew Center on the States.  As of January 2010, there were 1,404,053* persons under the jurisdiction of state prison authorities, 4,777* fewer than on December 31, 2008. 

This marks the first year-to-year drop in the nation's state prison population since 1972.  While the study showed an overall decline, it revealed great variation among jurisdictions.  The prison population declined in 26* states, while increasing in 24* states and in the federal system.

In the past few years, several states have enacted reforms designed to get taxpayers a better return on their public safety dollars.  These strategies included:

• Diverting low-level offenders and probation and parole violators from prison

• Strengthening community supervision and re-entry programs

• Accelerating the release of low-risk inmates who complete risk reduction programs

*Numbers updated as of April 1, 2010. (Report originally released March 17, 2010.)

Suicide Rate Highest in Middle Age (More Evidence of Generation Jones?)

MedPage: Suicide Rate Highest in Middle Age

WASHINGTON -- The suicide rate, once highest among those older than 80, now tops out among people in the 45 to 54 age group, according to a CDC report on violent deaths.

In 2007, the latest year for which figures are available, the suicide among those ages 45 to 54 was 17.6 per 100,000 population, CDC researchers reported in a surveillance summary published on May 14 by the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Next highest rates were in the 75 to 84 and 35 to 44 age groups at 16.4 and 16.3 per 100,000 respectively.

This marks the second year in a row that the suicide rate among middle-age adults has surpassed that in the oldest group.

Children 10 to 14 had the lowest suicide rate (0.8 per 100,000) and the rate among older teenagers (6.9 per 100,000) was about half that of those 30 or older. ...

In 2005, I did a post about Generation X, which William Strauss and Neal Howe define as those born between 1961 and 1980. In the middle of that post, I wrote about the sub-group born 1961-1964, folks that are about 45-50 years old today:

... For Generation X, it was one of continued ascent out of dysfunction. The group of children born 1961-1964 was the most dysfunctional cohort of the century. Strauss and Howe used a number of measures shown in the graph below. Compared to any other young adult cohort in the past several decades, this group was responsible for the lowest aptitude scores and the highest rates of alcohol consumption, violent crime, drunk driving, substance abuse, arson, and marijuana consumption. From my own study, I know you can add suicide to the list.

 

All of these dysfunctions slowly began to subside with the Xers born after 1964, ... 

Some have described the group of folks born between 1954-1965 as Generation Jones. That is inclusive of this high suicide cohort. I was born squarely in the middle of the group. It will be interesting to see what social scientists identify as the key factors for the rise in suicide for this group at this time.

The “CSI effect”

The Economist: The "CSI effect"

Television dramas that rely on forensic science to solve crimes are affecting the administration of justice.

Television dramas that rely on forensic science to solve crimes are affecting the administration of justice.

OPENING a new training centre in forensic science (pictured above) at the University of Glamorgan in South Wales recently, Bernard Knight, formerly one of Britain’s chief pathologists, said that because of television crime dramas, jurors today expect more categorical proof than forensic science is capable of delivering. And when it comes to the gulf between reality and fiction, Dr Knight knows what he is talking about: besides 43 years’ experience of attending crime scenes, he has also written dozens of crime novels.

The upshot of this is that a new phrase has entered the criminological lexicon: the “CSI effect” after shows such as “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation”. In 2008 Monica Robbers, an American criminologist, defined it as “the phenomenon in which jurors hold unrealistic expectations of forensic evidence and investigation techniques, and have an increased interest in the discipline of forensic science.”

Now another American researcher has demonstrated that the “CSI effect” is indeed real. Evan Durnal of the University of Central Missouri’s Criminal Justice Department has collected evidence from a number of studies to show that exposure to television drama series that focus on forensic science has altered the American legal system in complex and far-reaching ways. His conclusions have just been published in Forensic Science International.

The most obvious symptom of the CSI effect is that jurors think they have a thorough understanding of science they have seen presented on television, when they do not. Mr Durnal cites one case of jurors in a murder trial who, having noticed that a bloody coat introduced as evidence had not been tested for DNA, brought this fact to the judge’s attention. Since the defendant had admitted being present at the murder scene, such tests would have thrown no light on the identity of the true culprit. The judge observed that, thanks to television, jurors knew what DNA tests could do, but not when it was appropriate to use them. ...

I personally prefer NCIS. I've considered instituting the Gibbs head slap as part of my interaction at Presbyterian events, but I've been informed that might not be well received. Nevertheless, it is tempting.

Police say teens planned Plaza chaos online

KSHB-TV: Police say teens planned Plaza chaos online

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Police say hundreds of teens planned Saturday's chaos on the Plaza through web sites like Facebook and Twitter.  Officials received several calls from adults Sunday.  Police say it appears the adults saw the postings online but didn't report anything until it was too late.

This is the second week in a row police responded to the Country Club Plaza to clear hundreds of juveniles off the streets.  But Saturday, the crowd reached a record high: nearly 1,000 teens.

"It's 11:30 12:00 at night, and I'm just curious where the parents are,” said Plaza property owner Steve Brennan. “They look 12, 14, 15-years-old.”

Police say most of the teens were 13 to 17-years old and started flooding the Plaza around 10:30 p.m.

Over the course of just one hour, police say a couple was beaten and robbed in a parking lot, a girl in a prom dress was pushed into a fountain at the Mill Creek Park, and a teen was hit with a metal pipe in the Winstead's parking lot.  That teen now has severe facial injuries.  Police say several businesses closed early because groups of teens were harassing their customers, especially those seating at sidewalk tables.  ...

Yet another innovative use of social media. :-) This has been a big topic on the KC talk radio today, as you might imagine. It sounds to me like the police acted responsibly.

Crime targets affected by drop in goods prices

BBC: Crime targets affected by drop in goods prices

Criminals are looking for different items to steal because globalisation has brought prices of some household goods down, new research suggests.

Researchers at the University of Leicester say criminals are moving from traditional household burglaries to personal muggings.

Criminology lecturer James Treadwell said that a DVD player costing £19.99 was "simply not worth stealing".

The findings came as part of research into how crime has changed over time.

Mr Treadwell said globalisation - especially cheaper electronic goods from China and the Far East - was forcing thieves to re-think what items were worth taking.

He said: "The last decade has been a remarkable one where crime is concerned, with massive changes and shifts. ...

... He added: "While we might have seen a decline in some types of crime, we have seen a rise in other forms of criminal activity, particularly young people who seem to be mugging one another," he added.

"While DVD players for example, got cheaper, certain consumer items became smaller and were very, very expensive and sought after and so the latest mobile phone, or the latest iPod, which people carry about them, have become targets for robbers. ...

New Airport Body Scans Don't Detect All Weapons

NPR: New Airport Body Scans Don't Detect All Weapons (HT: Victor Claar)

The Obama administration's plan to protect air travelers from terrorists is counting on a technology that is powerful but imperfect, experts say.

The plan will place hundreds of full-body scanners in airports around the country. These scanners use a technology called backscatter X-ray to create images that can reveal weapons or explosives hidden beneath a person’s clothing.

But they don't detect everything, and they won't be in every airport.

President Obama announced the wide deployment of these scanners two weeks after a Nigerian man allegedly tried to blow up an airplane using plastic explosives concealed in his underwear on Christmas Day. ...

...So can any of this X-ray technology really make air travel safer?

"Of course not," says security consultant Bruce Schneier. "It's sort of magical thinking."

Schneier sees a couple of big problems with the government's strategy.

First, he says, every technology has its limits. And he's not reassured by the government's new scanner.

"It doesn't detect low-density explosives," Schneier says. "It doesn't detect explosives that are thin. You know, it's really very limited as to what it detects. It may or may not have detected the underwear bomber. We don't actually know."

Another problem, he says, is that even hundreds of scanners won't be enough to protect every airport.

"The 9/11 terrorists didn't go through security in Boston," he says. "They went through security in places like Maine."

And once a terrorist has made it through security anywhere in the system, they're not screened again, Schneier says.

"So unless these machines are in every airport in the country," he says, "all we're doing is making the terrorists take another flight before they launch their attack."

The government's real problem isn't a lack of technology, Schneier says. It's a tendency to react to what has already happened, not what might happen next time.

"Airports are the last line of defense, and they're not a very good one," Schneier says.

He says taxpayers would get more for their money if the government invested less in hardware and more in investigations of potential terrorists and better intelligence.

I found myself agreeing with Schneier's assessment, but then I became concerned. His take is that we should not buy products from the evil greedy capitalists who want to profit by selling the machines while giving them money to employ more government workers. I might have to rethink this one.  :-)

Teen survey shows drops in meth use, smoking

Reuters: Teen survey shows drops in meth use, smoking

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Methamphetamine use and smoking among U.S. teens has dropped significantly in recent years, but declines in marijuana use have stalled, according to an annual government survey released on Monday.

Only 1.2 percent of high school seniors say they used meth, as it is commonly called, in the past year, the survey found -- the lowest level since 1999 when use of the street drug was reported at 4.7 percent.

The proportion of 10th graders reporting meth was easy to obtain dropped to 14 percent, down from 19.5 percent five years ago, according to the survey of eighth, 10th, and 12th graders by researchers at the University of Michigan.

The research was conducted under a grant from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Cigarette smoking among teens also dropped to the lowest level since the survey began in 1975.

Only 2.7 percent of eighth graders smoke daily -- down from a peak rate of 10.4 percent in 1996 -- while 11.2 percent of high school seniors say they smoke daily, less than half of the 24.6 percent rate reported in 1997, the survey said.

It indicated marijuana use among teens has been on a downward trend since the mid-1990s, but the decline has stalled with use rates at the same levels as five years ago. schools in the eighth, 10th, and 12th grades were surveyed.

White House drug policy director Gil Kerlikowske said the survey is a warning sign for parents and policymakers. ...

Nightmare on Ware Street

The Reality-Based Community: Nightmare on Ware Street

A couple of years ago, my neighbor locked herself out and figured she could save the locksmith charge if she could get to an unlocked door on her second floor porch. A Cambridge police officer happened by and helped us carry an extension ladder across the street from my garage. He even held the ladder steady while my nimble neighbor ascended to the porch. The police officer never asked two laughing Caucasian women to prove we were not burglars.

We all know that race and sex explain the difference in the way Sgt. James Crowley treated Professor Gates, but I'd like to leave that to the side for now. The incendiary issue of race in policing diverts public attention from examining the foundation of Crowley's misconduct. When addressing basic errors in law and fact can solve a problem, we should start there before tackling the enormous and slippery issues of race and crime investigation. We're all talking about whether Lucia Whalen should have called the police and whether race was a factor in Sgt. Crowley's deplorable treatment of Gates, but so far, I have seen no straightforward analysis of Crowley's own account of his actions.

Sgt. Crowley's report almost certainly contains intentional falsehoods, but even accepting his account at face value, the report tells us all we need to conclude that Crowley was in the wrong here, and by a large factor.  ...

 

Decline in blacks in prison for drug crimes reverses 25-year trend

Christian Science Monitor: Decline in blacks in prison for drug crimes reverses 25-year trend

New York - For the first time in a quarter century, the number of African-Americans incarcerated for drug offenses in state prisons has declined more than 20 percent while the number of white imprisoned drug offenders has increased more than 40 percent.

The decline took place over a six year period from 1999 to 2005 and reflects fundamental changes in the so-called "war on drugs" – how it's targeted and prosecuted – as well as the waning of the crack epidemic in predominantly minority urban areas and the increase in methamphetamine abuse in largely white rural neighborhoods.

The trends were identified in an analysis of Justice Department statistics released Tuesday by The Sentencing Project, a criminal justice and reform nonprofit in Washington, D.C. The study found that an increase in the number of drug courts and state-level efforts to find alternatives to incarceration may have played a role in bringing about the change.

"Over the last year or two, largely because of the fiscal crisis, states around the country are reconsidering many of their sentencing and incarceration policies, particularly for lower level drug offenses," says Marc Mauer, executive director of The Sentencing Project and author of the study. "So it seems reasonably likely that we could see some decline in the overall number of people incarcerated for drug offenses."

According to the study, the number of blacks in state prisons on drug-related charges dropped from 144,700 in 1999 to 113,500 in 2005. The number of white drug-offenders in prison increased during the same time from 50,700 to 72,300.  ...

U.S. murders involving young black males soaring

Reuters: U.S. murders involving young black males soaring

DALLAS (Reuters) - Murders involving young black males -- as victims and killers -- have soared in the past few years, bucking national trends and underscoring the need for more spending on at-risk youth programs, according to a U.S. study released this week.

The study by researchers at Northeastern University in Boston said national statistics showing total homicide rates stabilizing concealed the worsening situation among black U.S. males.

"While overall homicide levels in the United States have fluctuated minimally in recent years, those involving young victims and perpetrators -- particularly young black males -- have surged," the study said.

"From 2002 to 2007, the number of homicides involving black male juveniles as victims rose by 31 percent and as perpetrators by 43 percent," it said. ...

Locked up in a Kenyan jail

Ben Byerly’s Blog: Locked up in a Kenyan jail

Friday 3:45 pm: my phone beeped with a new text: “Ben, can u get in touch with Kivanguli [NEGST’s Dean of Community Life]. I am being held at Karen Police station as an excess passenger.” Samy

Samy Tioye, one of my closest friends, is from Burkina Faso and is working on a PhD in translation...

...Friday afternoon, Samy made a quick trip into the shopping center at Karen (about 3 kms away), and was on his way home in one of Kenya’s infamous matatus (minivans used for public transportation). By way of background, Kenyan law says that a matatu can only carry a maximum of fourteen people that it has seats for. A few years ago, the government cracked down, but somehow the route coming past our school has been neglected and these matatus almost always carry excess passengers. It’s rare to find one that isn’t totally overcrowded; just about everyone I know – including me – has been forced to squat in the aisle or even hang out the open door of a matatu. It’s the rare matatu on this route that isn’t overloaded. But Friday, the police apparently decided to enforce the law, and poor Samy was one of those who hadn’t gotten a seat. (In Kenya, the passenger shares culpability along with the driver and conductor.)

This is what Samy had to say,...

It is a great story.

 

 

Mennonites and Mammonites...in Paraguay

The Weekly Standard: Mennonites and Mammonites...in Paraguay

...This progressive Mennonite congregation has departed in more ways than these from the customs of their forebears. Mennonites have lived in Paraguay since the 1920s, mostly in the miserably hot Chaco, a region that was barely inhabited before they arrived, and indeed barely inhabited today. For the first 70 years, they kept to themselves and preserved the pacifist and isolationist ways that characterize the sect everywhere. But now they're at the center of one of the strangest phenomena in South American politics, a saga of corruption and faith that has left these world-renouncing Anabaptists in control, for a time, of the highest worldly offices in Paraguay--and wondering whether their newfound power is a blessing or curse....

...But the economic entanglements remain, and to retreat from politics might require them to curtail the astonishing economic boom that financed the Mennonite ascent to power in Asunción less than a decade ago. Their commercial habits are too ingrained, and the Paraguayan appetite for their milk and yogurt too powerful, for easy reversal now. The seal is broken. "They are family men," Abente says, perhaps channeling the early Mennonite fathers. "But the more they have to deal with a corrupt place, the more they corrupt themselves."

Twenty years ago, when I was a grad student at Eastern University, a group of us would periodically get together and play the table game "Risk: The game of world domination." There were Mennonites among us, and one of our favorite observations was how ruthless and successful the Mennos were in playing this game. We used to comment that it was good that they wouldn't get their hands on any real power. :)

Ethnicity

SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007

I've avoided giving an extensive analysis of subgroups within American culture during this series on social indicators. I've been focused on trends at the aggregate level. However, one measure of the quality of life for the whole society is the degree to which each person has an opportunity for a quality of life similar to other groups within the culture. Because of their unique place in American history, African Americans have been subjected to the greatest oppression of any ethnic group within our culture. Their status with regard to the privileged status of white Americans can serve as a measure of how well we are doing in achieving equal opportunity for a high quality of life.

The first social indicators I mentioned in this series were life expectancy and the infant mortality rate. These rates are two of the best indicators for overall quality of life. Life Expectancy tells about the chances of living a long life. The infant mortality rate (number of deaths before age 1 per 1,000 births) tells about the most vulnerable among us and how well our cultural infrastructure meets their needs.

So how are African-Americans fairing compared to white Americans?

Life expectancy for African Americans as a percentage of life expectancy for white Americans increased for several years up to the mid-1980s. It appeared to be on a trajectory to equal that of White Americans by early this century. However, the rate took a noticeable dive in the late 1980s and stayed flat for the first years of the 1990s. Since then, the gap has been closing again at a rate similar to before 1984.

What happened? I suspect that rate declined due to the devastating crack cocaine epidemic that hit many black communities in the late 1980s. Murder rates and drug-related deaths soared for young African Americans. (See Crime (Part 1) ) It may not be the only cause, but I suspect it was a strong contributor.

The African American infant mortality rate declined from 32.6 in 1970 to 13.7 in 2005. However, the rate for white Americans declined even more precipitously. The rate of infant deaths for African Americans compared to white Americans was less than 2 to 1 in 1970, but by 2001 the rate was 2.5 to 1. There are likely several reasons for this, including a disparity in healthcare quality. The disparity seems to have leveled out in 1992 and has varied within a narrow range ever since. This trend also correlates well with the increasing ratio of African American single women having children (approximately 70% of all African American births) versus white single women having children over the same period.

Another important indicator of equality is the degree of poverty. How have African Americans faired compared to white Americans?

Some estimates place African American poverty rates above 80% before World War II. By 1975, the rate had dropped to 31.3%. The ratio of the African American rate to the rate for White Americans was 3.5 to 1 in 1975. Except for the minor setback in the 1980s (drug epidemic?), the ratio has slowly declined to a rate of less than 2.5 to 1.

Directly tied to economic viability is education.

The rate of high school graduation is approaching the rate for white Americans. The rate of college completion is also improving at a slower rate. It was just under 40% of the rate for White Americans in 1966 and is now over 60% of that rate. As education is one of the most important components of economic advancement, this gives some hope for gains in quality of life for African Americans in the future.

Possibly the most disturbing of all statistics is the ratio of black men ages 18-24 in college versus being in prison. For White males aged 18-24, there are 28 men in college for every 1 in prison. For African American men ages 18-24, the ratio is 2.6 to 1. (See More Brothers in Prison Than In College?) I don't know how this compares historically, but it indicates that we have a long road to equality.

Conclusions

When we look at group measures over time, there has been significant improvement in the absolute quality of life for African Americans. However, when we look at the quality of life relative to White Americans, we get a mixed picture of modest improvement. The quality of life for African Americans relative to White Americans is improving but disappointingly slowly.

[Index]

Crime (Part 2)

SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007

Crime (Part 2)

The Columbine High School tragedy in Littleton, Colorado, in 1999, has come to symbolize a culture of pervasive youth violence. There is no question that the Columbine episode was well beyond the ordinary expression of youth violence, but was it truly symbolic of trends in youth culture?

Historical statistics about youth violence are often hard to access and assess. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has published data on school violence and crime dating from the 1992-1993 school year. Here is a summary of their findings concerning youth homicides and suicides:

The number of homicides and suicides at school has remained constant over the last decade. Homicides away from school have dropped dramatically, and suicides away from school have declined at a less rapid rate. This has occurred during a time of growth in the student population. Therefore, the homicide and suicide rates are falling. The 2004-2005 school showed an increase in both homicides and suicides away from school, the highest in six years and five years, respectively. It remains to be seen if this marks a change in the trend.

The overall violent crime (victimization) rate has dropped from 96 to 33 per 1,000 since 1993, and the theft crime rate has dropped from 59 to 22 per 1,000 in 2004 (though it increased to 24 in 2005). NCES estimates that juvenile crime victimization is at its lowest since the early 1970s. There simply is no evidence of a youth crime epidemic.

We are in one of the least violent and crime-prone eras in over thirty years, and the rates appear to be on a downward trend. Youth violence, which had surged in the early 1990s, seems driven partly by a drug sub-culture and not by widespread violent youth behavior. The highest levels of crime and violence were twenty-five years ago, as evidenced by the following data:

Conclusions

• Violent crime, after declining from at least a fifty-year high in 1981, declining in the early 1980s, and then rising again through the early 1990s, has been in a steady, significant decline since 1994.
• Property crime has been in decline since the mid-1970s.
• Violent crime is less than half as frequent as its 1981 high.
• Property crime is less than one-third as frequent as its 1975 high.
• After peaking in the early 1990s, juvenile crime has rapidly declined.
• There is no evidence of a widespread youth culture of violence.

Crime rates suggest an improving quality of life.

[Index]

Crime (Part 1)

SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007

A fundamental indicator of a deteriorating society is increased criminal behavior. Crime analysis in the United States has focused on two primary measures over the last few decades. One measure is based on crimes reported to law enforcement officers. These are compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and presented in the Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR data has the advantage of measuring officially recorded events, but it is not an ideal indicator of actual crime incidents. Different types of crimes are reported at varying frequencies. For instance, nearly all murders are reported, but less than half of some property crimes are reported. Furthermore, depending on an array of political concerns, law enforcement agencies occasionally focus more resources on some crimes to the detriment of enforcement against other types of crime. This leads to higher reporting and a higher crime rate. Also, public education and changing values can cause a change in the frequency of reported crime. Nevertheless, the UCR statistics are considered an important measure.

A better measure of actual crime is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) conducted by the US Department of Justice. The data is based on surveys of a scientifically selected population sample. Unfortunately, the survey only dates to 1973. What do UCR and NCVS data reveal?

The UCR data shows:

• A steadily increasing crime rate until about 1980.
• A decline in crime during the early 1980s.
• Violent crime rates reached a fifty-year high in 1991.
• Property crime had a less dramatic increase but also peaked in 1991.
• Both violent and property crime rates dropped dramatically in the years after 1991.
• The 2006 levels for both types of crime are similar to rates in the early 1970s.

NCVS data tell a different tale.

The NCVS data shows:

• A peak in the property crime rate in the mid-1970s.
• A steady decline in property crime until the mid-1980s, when the rate stabilized.
• Another decline in property crime during the early 1990s.
• The property crime rate plateaued in 2003, at less than one-third of the rate in 1973.
• Violent crime peaked in 1981 and then declined before stabilizing in the Mid-1980s.
• Violent began rising again in 1990 and nearly reached the 1981 peak in 1994.
• Violent crime has declined since 1994 to less than one-half the peak rate in 1981.

The NCVS data seems to tell a different story from the UCR Data. How are these two measures to be reconciled?

Rarely are changes in complex phenomena like national crime rates the consequence of a single factor. That is true here. Much of what has unfolded over the last twenty years occurs against the backdrop of drug use and law enforcement efforts concerning drug use.

The peak year for the use of illicit drugs was 1981. The UCR and NCVS data show this was also a peak time for criminal behavior. Crime rates dropped for a few years after the 1981 peak. Both measures show increased violent crime rates beginning about 1985, when a crack cocaine epidemic emerged. In response to the epidemic, the Regan Administration established the Office of National Drug Control Policy in 1988, headed by a "Drug Czar," to coordinate efforts at reducing drug abuse. Law enforcement resources were targeted toward reducing drug abuse and related crime.

There were more crime incidents during this time, as evidenced by the victimization rate. However, a higher percentage of crimes were adjudicated because of the increased focus of resources by law enforcement and the courts. A higher percentage of reported crime during a time of increasing actual instances of crime resulted in a spike in the UCR data.

The increased enforcement efforts also resulted in overcrowded prisons. Initially, some perpetrators served less prison time than they otherwise would have. The building boom for new prisons in the 1990s rectified this problem and has likely contributed to the declining crime rates. There was also a boom in private sector security technology and personnel over the past decade. This also likely contributed to the decline. [1]

Clearly, there was an increase in violent crime in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but not nearly as dramatic as the UCR statistics would suggest. Property crime actually declined during this time. While the UCR data shows a return to early 1970s UCR rates, the NCVS data shows a drop to levels that are less than half its early 1970s rate. This may mean more crimes are reported and adjudicated than 30 years ago.

Other nuances to the 1994 peak of violent crime are worthy of note. The age-adjusted homicide rate was 10.7 in 1980 and again in 1993. Notice the difference in the age configuration of the murder victims for these two years:

The homicide victimization rate declined significantly for age groups over 24 years old. The rate dramatically increased for those under 25 and doubled for teenagers. But this is not the whole story. Note the following differences between White and Black males:

The death rate for Black males ages 20-24 in 1993 reached a staggering 190 per 100,000 people. (Age-adjusted rate for the nation was 10.2.)  This was overwhelmingly Black-on-Black crime. One-third of juvenile homicide arrests happened in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Detroit, even though these cities had just 5.8% of juveniles nationwide. [2] About 1 in four juvenile homicide cases occurred in just five of the nation's more than 3,000 counties. [3]The 1980 homicide rate appears to have been more geographically and demographically disbursed. The early 1990s surge was concentrated among urban male teenagers and young men, especially those who were Black. It was directly related to the crack cocaine epidemic. [4] While the homicide rate for young Black males has been significantly decreasing in recent years, it has not decreased at the rate of other demographic groups. That such an episode occurred points to several disturbing social problems, but it does not support the idea of a broad-based cultural slide into violence.

[Continued]

[1] Bruce L. Benson, "Why Crime Declines," The Freeman, Foundation for Economic Education, January 2000. www.fee.org.

[2] Erik Lotke and Vincent Shiraldi, "An Analysis of Juvenile Homicides: Where They Occur and the Effectiveness of Adult Court Intervention," National Center on Institutions and Alternatives, July 16, 1996. 66.165.94.98/stories/analysjuv0796.html

[3] Howard N. Snyder and Melissa Sickmund, "Juvenile Victims and Offenders: 1999 National Report," National Center for Juvenile Justice, Washington, DC, September 1999. Chapter 2, p. 21. www.ncjrs.org/html/ojjdp/nationalreport99/toc.html

[4] Ibid. Chapter 3.

[Index]