Kruse Kronicle

Student Loan Forgiveness and Thinking Christianly

This month Allan Bevere and I discuss student loan forgiveness, reflecting not just on the merits of proposed loan cancellations but also on how we use (and abuse) scripture to justify policy ideas. 

Confederate Monuments Are A Rewrite of History, Not A Remembrance

Confederate monuments were the product of a campaign to rewrite history, not to preserve it.

There were few Confederate monuments thirty years after the Civil War ended in 1865. The placement of monuments came in two waves, the first much larger than the second. One wave began at the turn of the last century, and the other began about 1956 (See chart).

Source: There are certain moments in US history when Confederate monuments go up

First Wave

The first sustained wave of monument placement began in the late 1890s, peaking in 1911 and then tapering off to a lower placement rate in the 1920s and early 1930s. Why this spike?

By the 1890s, Confederate veterans were dying off, and Southern elites feared younger generations would lose the “right” perspective on the history of the Civil War. The “Lost Cause” movement began to take root in the South as a response. The mission was to recast the Confederacy as a heroic and just attempt to preserve the Southern way of life while minimizing the experience and impact of slavery.

The United Daughters of the Confederacy was born in 1894. Organized by daughters and granddaughters of the Southern elite, they set out to promote the Lost Cause narrative through textbook writing, children’s programs, and the erection of monuments promoting the Lost Cause. Their financial and political clout gave them considerable influence, especially in the formerly Confederate states.

In 1896, the Supreme Court handed down its Plessy vs. Ferguson ruling, institutionalizing the Separate but Equal doctrine. By 1914, Less than twenty years later, all Southern states and most Northern cities had enacted laws segregating people.

1925 Klan march in Washington DC

From 1902 to 1907, Tom Dixon wrote a popular trilogy of novels 1902-1907, targeting the “unfair” treatment of the South in Harriet Beecher Stowe’s “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” fifty years earlier. The middle novel, “The Clansman: An Historical Romance of the Ku Klux Klan,” inspired D. W. Griffith’s “Birth of a Nation” in 1915, glorifying the Klan and employing deeply racist troupes. It was the first true blockbuster movie. Not coincidentally, 1915 was the birth of the Second Ku Klux Klan. By 1922, the Klan had a million members, possibly as many as five million by 1925, and millions more in sympathy. Lynching was prevalent throughout this period, as were race massacres like the Red Summer of 1919 and the Tulsa massacre of 1921.

Second Wave

The United Daughters of the Confederacy began to lose steam in the 1920s, and from the mid-1930s to the mid-1950s, monument erection mostly subsided. But another smaller spike developed from about 1956-1965. What happened here?

In 1954, in Brown vs. the Board of Education, the Supreme Court overruled Plessy vs. Ferguson, effectively delegitimizing segregation. The Civil Rights Movement came into its own at the time. Up went more monuments to persevere the ethos of the Lost Cause and white supremacy, dropping off after 1965 and the passage of civil rights legislation. The financial and political clout to promote these efforts was not as powerful by this date.

Conclusion

The great majority of Confederate monuments were never a product of some high-minded project to help us holistically remember the past. They were the product of a concerted effort to rewrite the past with the Lost Cause narrative. They were integral to waves of white supremacy that swept America, attempting to whitewash the past and intimidate people of color. They have no business standing in places of honor in our public spaces. Their removal aids in the remembrance of history, not its neglect.

View this video for a short history of the United Daughters of the Confederacy and their role in promoting the Lost Cause and Confederate monument placement.

Socialism. You Keep Using That Word …

Many Americans, especially progressives, are now "socialists." The rise of Bernie Sanders has had much to do with it. Yet, when I hear them talk, I keep hearing Inigo Montoya, "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

According to Marxian theory, socialism is a transitional economic system between capitalism and communism. Capitalism (i.e., private property ownership and the distribution of goods and services through market exchange) will run its course. One day, a classless society with no private property will evolve. The workers will hold things in common, and goods will be distributed according to need.

Some Marxists believed they could accelerate this evolution through violent revolution and the imposition of communist principles. We saw that tactic attempted several times in the last century. Others believed economic evolution should run its course. People could work for greater social justice within the system as they methodically brought every aspect of the economy under the control of the government, eventually ending private ownership of the means of production. From there, it would be just a few more steps to communist utopia. This transitional system is socialism.

Socialists called themselves "social democrats" or "democratic socialists," advocating "social democracy." The emphasis here is democracy. Since communism is inevitable, there is no need to short-circuit the process through violent revolution. People will choose their way into communism.

During the last century, it certainly became clear that relying on markets and philanthropy alone was not an optimal strategy for a just and flourishing society. Government has assumed control of some functions to ensure the broader welfare of citizens in all of today's capitalist societies. These functions have been "socialized." But the broader context is still private property and market systems. "Socializing" selected functions is not a tactical progression toward communism. This is welfare capitalism.

However, a funny thing happened to socialism along the way through the last century. It was mugged by reality. It has become clear that socialism is fatally flawed. Market systems provide a real-time information feedback loop, matching ever-changing demands with an ever-changing supply. Markets empower countless strangers to benefit each other through specialization and exchange. There is simply no way a centralized entity can manage the production of goods and services. Assuming those with sufficient information could be trusted to have the wisdom and ethical courage to make optimal decisions, the endless churn of supply and demand makes sufficient information utterly impossible. (Other insurmountable barriers exist, but that is for another day.) The "inevitable" road to communism was wrong.

Most political parties, variously named "democratic socialists" or "social democrats," have become advocates for expanding welfare capitalism. For precisely this reason, the word "socialist" has fallen out of favor in many regions. So, in short, we have learned that neither pure libertarianism nor socialism is workable. We are all welfare capitalists now: We rely primarily on private ownership and market exchange and quibble about what societal functions might be better if socialized.

So let us look for a minute at Bernie Sanders, the "socialist" icon for hipster intellectuals. Sanders talks of making America more like Denmark –  or the Nordic economic model. Are Nordic countries socialist? Finnish-American journalist Anu Partanen, author of The Nordic Theory of Everything: In Search of a Better Life, recently noted:

The problem is the way Sanders has talked about it [Nordic economic model.] The way he’s embraced the term socialist has reinforced the American misunderstanding that universal social policies always require sacrifice for the good of others, and that such policies are anathema to the entrepreneurial, individualistic American spirit. It’s actually the other way around. For people to support a Nordic-style approach is not an act of altruism but of self-promotion. It’s also the future.

In an age when more and more people are working as entrepreneurs or on short-term projects, and when global competition is requiring all citizens to be better prepared to handle economic turbulence, every nation needs to ensure that its people have the education, health care, and other support structures they need to take risks, start businesses, and build a better future for themselves and for their country. It’s simply a matter of keeping up with the times.

In a recent address at Harvard University, Denmark's prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, made this observation:

I know that some people in the US associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore, I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy. … The Nordic model is an expanded welfare state which provides a high level of security to its citizens, but it is also a successful market economy with much freedom to pursue your dreams and live your life as you wish.

Are you getting that? A robust welfare system is a means to a robust market economy! And that raises another issue: markets.

Paraphrasing Partanen, progressive Americans see Nordic social policies as anathema to market capitalism. They argue that allowing corporations to rig the system in favor of a few, allegedly an inherent feature of capitalism, is social injustice. It makes no sense. If corporations are rigging the system, then it is not truly a market! The socialist answer would be for the government to assume ownership of corporations. If you just want to end inordinate privilege for big business, then what you are advocating is – wait for it – freer markets!

In reality, there is no such thing as "free markets." Market economies are based on the premise that absent fraud, misinformation, and externalities, people will make the best and most efficient decisions about what to consume and produce for their own needs, mediated through price information generated by supply and demand. Producers who produce well will be rewarded, and those that do not will eventually fold. The reality is that there is always incomplete information, and there are nearly always some externalities inherent in trade. Taxes and regulations are also necessary. But generally speaking, trade unencumbered by planners or by gamers of the system leads to higher living standards.

Big-business capitalists use political power to block competition and preserve economic power. They constrain markets. Writing 240 years ago, Adam Smith wrote, "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices." Free markets are the answer to powerful economic players conspiring with the government to choke off competition and preserve their privileged status through subsidies, tariffs, and onerous legislation.

Socializing some aspects of society is not antithetical to market economics. We cannot deliver some social goods through markets, or at least not deliver them well. But we must have a robust market economy to generate tax revenue and sustain socialized services. Denmark is the top-rated country in the world for business and trade. The other Nordic countries are right behind them. This is not the Sanders model.

Sanders wants to institute protectionist policies, raise taxes on corporations (the USA is already on the high side), set a minimum wage 50% higher than other developed countries, and do a host of other trade-unfriendly measures. Meanwhile, taxes for all but the wealthiest will stay low (taxes in Nordic countries are high for everyone.) He wants to expand the safety net golden egg while strangling off the goose that lays it. He thrives on populist anti-market and anti-business sentiment. Curiously, Clinton is probably closer to the Nordic model, embracing an expanded and smarter welfare model while championing (at least in the past) trade and business. Yet she dismisses Denmark as contrary to this vision. Partanen speculates Clinton knows her plans are more like Denmark than are Sanders' but avoids association with the Nordic model because of public misconceptions. I think that is true.

So why are so many supposedly well-educated people now calling themselves socialists? One big reason is surely economic illiteracy. Going back to at least the 1930s, conservatives warned of "socialism" with the advent of Social Security. Same with Great Society programs in the 1960s - now with ACA and talk of single-payer healthcare. To some degree, left leaners just decided to own the moniker. Simultaneously, enough libertarian-leaning folks falsely used free markets to rationalize away ANY government involvement in anything; so many lefties just owned this misconception of "free market." They want a more robust version of welfare capitalism and less big-business domination. Economic illiteracy is my generous reading of why people call themselves socialist. But I have a less generous reading as well.

Partanen writes:

Americans are not wrong to abhor the specters of socialism and big government. In fact, as a proud Finn, I often like to remind my American friends that my countrymen in Finland fought two brutal wars against the Soviet Union to preserve Finland’s freedom and independence against socialism. No one wants to live in a society that doesn’t support individual liberty, entrepreneurship, and open markets. But the truth is that free-market capitalism and universal social policies go well together—this isn’t about big government, it’s about smart government. …

Like the Finns, countless Americans fought to free America from the totalitarian ideologies that emerged in the last century. They largely won. They considered it a legacy to pass on to future generations of America and the world. Rightfully so. So why would people seeking a more robust welfare state and less big-business domination call themselves socialists?

Inigo Montoya is wrong about many of the new "socialists." They know exactly what the word means! They know the emotion it stirs. The misuse is intentional. Calling yourself "socialist" is the left's version of Trumpist politics: Stir up tribal rivalry with incendiary language. Raise your verbal middle finger to your opponents. When they call you on it, roll your eyes incredulously that people would accuse you of advocating totalitarianism. "After all, we just want to improve the safety net and end rein in corporate greed like any good social democrat." So, to my "socialist" friends who cannot fathom the origins of anger in Trump voters, part of the answer is staring at you in the mirror. Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind.

If your sole concern is fomenting tribal political battles, then the above is mostly irrelevant to you. Calling yourself a socialist is effective for your purposes. If you care about clarifying the truth to pursue a greater good for humanity, you will use language faithful to what is being described. Whether through illiteracy or insolence, "socialism" fails that standard. You really need to stop using that word.

 

 

Saturday Links

1. The United States had its financial bubble. Europe is having one too. Is China next? If it is, it could reshape the global economy and radically reshape the Chinese government. Here is an interesting piece about China's real estate bubble.

2. Robert Tracinski thinks we are in the midst of a Third Industrial Revolution.

... I like the idea of a breaking the Industrial Revolution into stages, but I would define them in more fundamental terms. The first Industrial Revolution was the harnessing of large-scale man-made power, which began with the steam engine. The internal combustion engine, electric power, and other sources of energy are just further refinements of this basic idea. The second Industrial Revolution would be the development of interchangeable parts and the assembly line, which made possible inexpensive mass production with relatively unskilled labor. The Third Industrial Revolution would not be computers, the Internet, or mobile phones, because up to now these have not been industrial tools; they have been used for moving information, not for making things. Instead, the rise of computers and the Internet is just a warm-up for the real Third Industrial Revolution, which is the full integration of information technology with industrial production.

The effect of the Third Industrial Revolution will be to collapse the distance between the design of a product and its physical manufacture, in much the same way that the Internet has eliminated the distance between the origination of a new idea and its communication to an audience. ...

3. Tyler Cowen has some thoughts about the impact of our technological revolution as well Are we living in the early 19th century?

... Eventually all of the creative ferment of the industrial revolution pays off in a big "whoosh," but it takes many decades, depending on where you draw the starting line of course.  A look at the early 19th century is sobering, or should be, for anyone doing fiscal budgeting today.  But it is also optimistic in terms of the larger picture facing humanity over the longer run.

4. You may have seen a deeply flawed viral video about wealth inequality this past week. I am working on my own response, but economist Mark Perry's response is here.  In response to the viral 'Wealth Inequality in America' video

5. What are the contours of income inequality in the United States? This 40-minute video by Emmanuel Saez offers some important insights.

6. Futurist Ray Kurzweil is a little too sensationalist for my taste, but this vid offers interesting food for thought about nanotechnology and the future of sports. Will we even be able to have meaningful sports competitions?

7. Atlantic takes up a frequently perpetuated myth. 'Women Own 1% of World Property': A Feminist Myth That Won't Die

8. First, there was I, Pencil. Then I Smartphone. Now "I Coke." What Coke Contains

9. U.S. household wealth regains pre-recession peak but ...

The recovered wealth - most of it from higher stock prices - has been flowing mainly to richer Americans. By contrast, middle class wealth is mostly in the form of home equity, which has risen much less.

10. When looking at decisions in your own context, Seth Godin explains why Macro trends don't matter so much

11. It's a big, fat myth that all scientists are religion-hating atheists.

Whether or not you think science is wonderful, the stereotype of all scientists being atheists is unrealistic. There is, however, a special dance.

12. I consider this good news. Old Earth, Young Minds: Evangelical Homeschoolers Embrace Evolution

More Christian parents are asking for mainstream science in their children's curricula.

13. Remember to keep Syria and Egypt in your prayers. Nearly 1 in 20 Syrians are now refugees

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/03/07/4106038/us-household-wealth-regains-pre.html#storylink=cpy

What the Public Knows - In Pictures, Maps, Graphs and Symbols

Pew Research: What the Public Knows - In Pictures, Maps, Graphs and Symbols

The latest update of the Pew Research Center’s regular News IQ quiz uses a set of 13 pictures, maps, graphs and symbols to test knowledge of current affairs. (To take the quiz yourself before reading this report, click here.) At the high end, nearly nine-in-ten Americans (87%) are able to select the Star of David as the symbol of Judaism from a group of pictures of religious symbols. And when shown a picture of Twitter’s corporate logo, 79% correctly associate the logo with that company.

At the low end, just 43% are able to identify a picture of Elizabeth Warren’s from a group of four photographs of female politicians, among them Nancy Pelosi, Tammy Baldwin and Deb Fischer. And when presented with a map of the Middle East in which Syria is highlighted, only half are able to identify the nation correctly.

Overall, majorities correctly answer 11 of 13 questions in the new quiz, which was conducted online January 18-24, 2013, among a random sample of 1,041 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

The quiz includes several items about leading political figures. When shown a picture of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 73% identified Christie from a list that included Newt Gingrich, Scott Walker and Rush Limbaugh. An identical percentage identified John Boehner in a question with a similar format. To see how each question was presented, see the attached survey topline.

Seven of the 13 items were answered correctly by two-thirds or more of the survey’s respondents. These included identifying the Star of David as the symbol for Judaism (87%), the corporate logo for Twitter (79%), the map of states won in 2012 by President Obama (75%), the photos of Christie and Boehner (73% each), a graph of the unemployment rate (70%) and the symbol for the Euro (69%).

About six-in-ten (62%) could identify the new secretary of state, John Kerry, from a photo lineup of four people. When shown a list of four state maps, and asked which of the states had approved the legalization of same-sex marriage last year, 60% correctly chose the state of Washington. But just 50% were able to identify Syria as country highlighted on a map of the Middle East.

On average, quiz takers correctly answered 8.5 of the 13 questions, a score of 65% correct when graded like a classroom test. ...

Several interesting tables are presented in this article. Take a look.

Saturday Links

(Like the Kruse Kronicle on Facebook if you want links to daily posts to appear in your Facebook feed.)

1. Several articles I saw this week reflect on data presented in The Pew Forum's The Global Religious Landscape: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Major Religious Groups as of 2010. Here is one interesting chart from the survey showing what percentage of each religion's adherents live in minority religious status in their own country.

2. This is really fascinating. Smithsonian: Why Japan is Obsessed with Kentucky Fried Chicken on Christmas. “Kurisumasu ni wa kentakkii!” (Kentucky for Christmas!)

3. Four Harvard and MIT grads are experimenting with direct aid to the poor. "GiveDirectly, the brainchild of four Harvard and MIT graduate students, is so simple, it's genius. Give poor Kenyan families $1,000 -- and let them do whatever they want with it." Can 4 Economists Build the Most Economically Efficient Charity Ever?

4. From the Guardian, Private healthcare: the lessons from Sweden

"... Despite its reputation as a leftwing utopia, Sweden is now a laboratory for rightwing radicalism. Over the past 15 years a coalition of liberals and conservatives has brought in for-profit free schools in education, has sliced welfare to pay off the deficit and has privatised large parts of the health service.

Their success is envied by the centre right in Britain. Despite predictions of doom, Sweden's economy continues to grow and its pro-business coalition has remained in power since 2006. The last election was the first time since the war that a centre-right government had been re-elected after serving a full term.

As the state has been shrunk, the private sector has moved in. Göran Dahlgren, a former head civil servant at the Swedish department of health and a visiting professor at the University of Liverpool, says that "almost all welfare services are now owned by private equity firms". ..."

5. Scott Annan writes in The Future Of Business Is Morality, And The Future Is Now

"... We have reached a point in our economy where it is becoming increasingly clear that businesses are being measured not just for their profit, but also for their impact. And I'm not just talking about writing a check or funding a charity; I'm referring to business models for which community involvement and inspirational brand building are the profit centers. (Think Warby Parker, TOMS, and startups such as SOMA.) I recently went to a conference where the founders of a startup posited a powerful idea: the future of marketing is philanthropy. But I think the even bigger idea is the future of business is morality. My grandfather saw this early on.

At a time when the moral framework of America appears to be fractured – or at the very least confused – businesses are in the propitious position to espouse cultural standards that can help restore values that our youth can use to build the next generation of positive enterprise. In fact, whether businesses succeed in creating and promoting positive cultures might determine whether they stay in business at all. The future of business is morality, and the future is now.

Whether it's the job of the corporation or not to set the moral tone for society, the expectation is trending towards companies setting the right example for others to follow. With the sharp rise in entrepreneurship, young companies have the opportunity to establish strong cultures early on and share them with their communities. Money must have a moral center, and from greater consciousness in business, greater profit will follow. ..."

6. Scientific American asks, After 40 Years, Has Recycling Lived Up to Its Billing?

7. AOL has a short piece about the rise of small nuclear reactors. The Next Big Thing in Nuclear Power: Going Small

8. Scientific American has a list of The Top 10 Science Stories of 2012.

9. Depression Surpasses Asthma as Top Disability Problem among U.S. and Canadian Teens

"New data show an increasing contribution of mental and behavioral disorders to deterioration in the health-related quality of life among teens in the U.S. and Canada over the past two decades, and increases elsewhere around the globe."

10. Robotic arm controlled by the mind allows paraplegic woman to feed herself

11. Interesting piece on Why We Prefer Masculine Voices (Even in Women).

12. Atlantic Cities looks into The Mystery of Our Declining Mobility.

13. People Are Leaving California In Record Numbers

More people moved out of California in 2011 than moved in, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling that the Democrat-run state's economic woes continue to drive residents away.

Most statisticians attribute California's net loss of 100,000 people last year to its high cost of living, increased population density and troubling unemployment rate.

The widening middle class in Mexico is also encouraging some immigrants to remain in that country instead of moving to California.

Texas — home to lower taxes, less regulation and what the Manhattan Institute calls a "labor pool with the right skills at the right price" — is one of the most attractive destinations for companies departing from California, according to the Census Bureau. ...

14. The United States Has Seen A Huge Drop In Executions Since 2000.

"The country reported 85 executions in 2000 but only 43 in 2012, according to a new report released by the Death Penalty Information Center. Plus, far fewer people are being sentenced to death row in the first place. The year 2000 saw 224 new inmates sentenced to death, while 2012 saw only 78, according to the report."

15. Conor Friedersdorf at the Atlantic had a great piece: Why 'If We Can Just Save One Child ...' Is a Bad Argument, referring to President Obama's statement at Newtown, CT. When dealing with complex topics like gun control, we always talk about tradeoffs. For instance, I know how we can save more than 30,000 lives. There were 32,367 traffic fatalities last year. Let's set the speed limit to 5 miles per hour. Nearly all those lives would be saved. Should we do this "if we can save just one more life"? I, like Friedersforf, am not advocating any particular policy. I'm just pointing out the absurdity of making such statements, as politicians often do.

16. The New York Times has an opinion piece by John Dickerson, The Decline of Evangelical America

"I found that the structural supports of evangelicalism are quivering as a result of ground-shaking changes in American culture. Strategies that served evangelicals well just 15 years ago are now self- destructive. The more that evangelicals attempt to correct course, the more they splinter their movement. In coming years we will see the old evangelicalism whimper and wane."

He speaks of an Evangelical "collapse" having happened. That may be a bit premature, but his articulation of trends is right.

17. I saw two interesting posts on the sociology Facebook this week. The New York Times had a piece about announcing bad news on Facebook: On Facebook, Bad With the Good. Mashable reports that Socioeconomic Status Predicts Number of Facebook Friends.

18. Gangnam Style hits one billion views on YouTube. K pop rules!

Saturday Links

Here are the links for this week. Lots of interesting finds this week, and not nearly enough time to blog.

1. Google Fiber offers super-fast broadband to Kansas City. If all goes well, we will get connected in late spring of 2013.

2. Two Thirds of Ocean Life Remains Undiscovered. If they haven't found them, how do they know?

3. "British people - and many others across the world - have been brought up on the idea of three square meals a day as a normal eating pattern, but it wasn't always that way." Breakfast, lunch and dinner: Have we always eaten them?

4. What is the optimal rate of taxation according to the Laffer Curve? Goats hold the answer. Goat Economics: Why the Laffer Curve Is No Joke

5. The print media industry is rapidly morphing right before our eyes. Google Ad Revenue Now More Than U.S. Print Publications Combined [CHART]

6. Cyberspace continues to evolve. Text Messaging Declines in U.S. for First Time, Report Says

7. "It's a common grumble that politicians' lifestyles are far removed from those of their electorate. Not so in Uruguay. Meet the president - who lives on a ramshackle farm and gives away most of his pay." Jose Mujica: The world's 'poorest' president

8. You may have heard that there was a presidential election last week. Here is a map showing how the counties voted, with red being the most intensely Republican and blue being the most Democrat. (Source: The Real Reason Cities Lean Democratic)

9. Speaking of the election, a lot has been written about how the GOP will need to change if they want to win national elections. As a right-leaning guy, I thought this article in Slate, The New Grand Old Party, and Bobby Jindal's article, How Republicans can win future elections, were among the best.

10. China continues working on technological innovations to address its water problems. Industry Special: Desalination tech helps slake nation's thirst for fresh water.

11. The world is going to the dogs. The Dog Economy Is Global—but What Is the World's True Canine Capital?

12. As manufacturing becomes more automated, requiring fewer workers, we see The Emerging Professional, Scientific, and Technical Sector.

13. Nanotechnology just keeps getting more impressive. "The latest invention from Stanford University's Department of Electrical Engineering sounds like something a superhero would have. A self-repairing plastic-metal material has been developed by a team of professors, researchers and graduate students." New Self-Repairing Material Invented at Stanford

14. For the true narcissist, you now can replicate your image in 3D. 3D-printing photo booth gives you a figurine instead of a bad photo

15. Speaking of 3D-Printing, how big a deal is it? "Chris Anderson has exited one of the top jobs in publishing - Editor-in-Chief of Wired magazine - to pursue the life of an entrepreneur, making a big bet that 3D printers represent a massive new phase of the industrial revolution." Chris Anderson: Why I left Wired - 3D Printing Will Be Bigger Than The Web

16. The debate about a historical Adam continues. Peter Enns with another interesting post, Who Needs a Historical Prometheus…uh, I mean Adam?

17. George Bullard asks, When is a Church a Church, and When is it a Flash Mob?

"A flash mob (or flashmob) is a group of people who assemble suddenly in a place, perform an unusual and seemingly pointless act for a brief time, then disperse, often for the purposes of entertainment, satire, and artistic expression. Flash mobs are organized via telecommunications, social media, or viral emails." [Wikipedia accessed 11.12.12] How do you define a church?"

18. This was me thirty years ago (in my dreams!)

19. Ever wonder how Cy Young award-winning pitcher R. A. Dickey manages to throw knuckleballs? Apparently, so do physicists. How a Baseball Star's Tricky Pitch Strikes Out Hitters—and Baffles Physicists

20. I loved these stat brain teasers. 5 Statistics Problems That Will Change The Way You See The World

Saturday Links

Here are the links for this week.

1. Ever thought about starting your own blog? Michael Hyatt has some advice: My Advice to Beginning Bloggers

2. Is gender inclusive language taking hold? Good News, You Guys Everyone! English Is Becoming More Inclusive

3. How New Yorkers Adjusted to Sudden Smartphone Withdrawal

4. Paying for What Was Free: Lessons from the New York Times Paywall

Abstract

In a national online longitudinal survey, participants reported their attitudes and behaviors in response to the recently implemented metered paywall by the New York Times. Previously free online content now requires a digital subscription to access beyond a small free monthly allotment. Participants were surveyed shortly after the paywall was announced and again 11 weeks after it was implemented to understand how they would react and adapt to this change. Most readers planned not to pay and ultimately did not. Instead, they devalued the newspaper, visited its Web site less frequently, and used loopholes, particularly those who thought the paywall would lead to inequality. Results of an experimental justification manipulation revealed that framing the paywall in terms of financial necessity moderately increased support and willingness to pay. Framing the paywall in terms of a profit motive proved to be a noncompelling justification, sharply decreasing both support and willingness to pay. Results suggest that people react negatively to paying for previously free content, but change can be facilitated with compelling justifications that emphasize fairness.

5. The world is safer. But no one in Washington can talk about it.

... Beyond the United States, global statistics point undeniably toward progress in achieving greater peace and stability. There are fewer wars now than at any time in decades. The number of people killed as a result of armed violence worldwide is plunging as well — down to about 526,000 in 2011 from about 740,000 in 2008, according to the United Nations. ...

... Most top Pentagon officials say the statistics showing that the world is safer are irrelevant and don't reflect the magnitude of the risks. The result is what Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has dubbed a "security paradox." The world may seem safer, Dempsey says, but the potential for global catastrophe has grown as the planet has become more interconnected and potential enemies have greater access to more powerful weapons and technology. ...

6. A 51st state? Is Puerto Rico on Its Way To Becoming the 51st State? Possibly.

7. Mitt Romney joins a long list of also-rans. So how does he compare to other presidential also-rans?

8. Speaking of campaigns, Time has an interesting piece about the inner workings of the Obama data crunching team, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win. Contrast this with the disaster that was Romney's get-out-the-vote operation. Romney's Get out the Vote Epic Fail.

9. How much difference is there in the coming-of-age experience between Baby Boomers and Millennials? Mother and daughter team Robin Marantz Henig and Samantha Henig are interviewed about their new book: What's the Matter With Millennials?

10. McDonald's Sales Fall For First Time In Nearly A Decade

11. Interesting piece on crowdsourcing in Harvard Business Review. Let the Crowd Fix Your Product's Bugs

"The online startup Kaggle assembles a diverse group of people from around the world to work on tough problems submitted by organizations. The company runs data science competitions, where the goal is to arrive at a better prediction than the submitting organization's starting 'baseline' prediction. Results from these contests are striking in a couple ways. For one thing, improvements over the baseline are usually substantial. In one case, Allstate submitted a dataset of vehicle characteristics and asked the Kaggle community to predict which of them would have later personal liability claims filed against them. The contest lasted approximately three months, and drew in more than 100 contestants. The winning prediction was more than 270% better than the insurance company's baseline.

Another interesting fact is that the majority of Kaggle contests are won by people who are marginal to the domain of the challenge — who, for example, made the best prediction about hospital readmission rates despite having no experience in health care — and so would not have been consulted as part of any traditional search for solutions. In many cases, these demonstrably capable and successful data scientists acquired their expertise in new and decidedly digital ways"

12. I can't wait to see this one!

21 Charts That Explain American Values Today

Atlantic: 21 Charts That Explain American Values Today

Americans say they are more tolerant and open-minded than their parents. Among the issues that rate more morally acceptable today than a decade ago: homosexuality, human cloning, pre-marital sex, and having a child out of wedlock.  At the same time, half believe the economic system is unfair to middle- and working-class Americans, and only 17 percent believe Wall Street executives share fundamental American values. In all, two-thirds think the country is heading in the wrong direction, 69 percent believe the country's values have deteriorated since the 1970s, and nearly half say values will further weaken over the next 10 years.

 

Such are the highlights of The Atlantic/Aspen Institute American Values Survey. Elsewhere on the site, pollster Mark Penn provides a full analysis of the survey, which was conducted by his firm, Penn Schoen Berland. Below, a brief summary in charts: ...

Very interesting graphs.

Amish Renegades Are Accused in Bizarre Attacks on Their Peers

New York Times: Amish Renegades Are Accused in Bizarre Attacks on Their Peers

BERGHOLZ, Ohio — Myron Miller and his wife, Arlene, had been asleep for an hour when their 15-year-old daughter woke them and said that people were knocking at the door.

Mr. Miller, 45, a stocky construction worker and an Amish bishop in the peaceful farmlands of eastern Ohio, found five or six men waiting. Some grabbed him and wrestled him outside as others hacked at his long black beard with scissors, clipping off six inches. As Mr. Miller kept struggling, his wife screamed at the children to call 911, and the attackers fled.

For an Amish man, it was an unthinkable personal violation, and all the more bewildering because those accused in the attack are other Amish.

“We don’t necessarily fight, but it’s just instinct to defend yourself,” Mr. Miller recalled.

The attackers, the authorities said, had traveled from an isolated splinter settlement near Bergholz, south of the Miller residence. Sheriffs and Amish leaders in the region, home to one of the country’s largest concentrations of Amish, had come to expect trouble from the Bergholz group. It is said to be led with an iron hand by Sam Mullet, a prickly 66-year-old man who had become bitterly estranged from mainstream Amish communities and had had several confrontations with the Jefferson County sheriff.

But the violent humiliation that men from his group are charged with inflicting on their perceived enemies throughout this fall, using scissors and battery-operated clippers, came as a bizarre shock.

The assaults — four are known to the authorities — have stirred fear among the Amish and resulted in the arrests, so far, of five men, including three of Mr. Mullet’s sons, on kidnapping and other charges. Officials say that more arrests are possible. ...

Prophets Against Profits? What Occupy Wall Street Misses

Christianity Today: Prophets Against Profits? What Occupy Wall Street Misses

This is very good piece written by an economist in CT of all places.

The problem doesn't lie with the 1%. It's with us.

A sign flashed at the Occupy Wall Street protest reads "People Before Profits." It is an effective sign. Who could support Profits Before People? Some Wall Street employees have apparently responded sympathetically to the protestors, trying to understand their demands. But part of the power of the protest lies in its ambiguity. Americans are angry about many issues today. In such a climate it may be more strategic to focus on the common anger than on specificities.

The protests are centered on Wall Street because they target political corruption in the finance industry. But the world of finance is very complex. Part of the problem is that it became too complex, so complex that even the financiers themselves couldn't understand the implications or robustness of the financial derivatives they were trading, or even how to properly price them. (They seemed to be particularly challenged with pricing derivatives of sub-prime mortgages.)

The problems with our financial system are complex; the solutions are complex. Overhauling the incentives within our financial institutions is far more challenging than the protestors understand, or perhaps would admit even if they did. As a graduate student at Berkeley, I was a teaching assistant for Christina Romer, a macroeconomist who arguably understands economic recessions better than anyone on the planet. She and Larry Summers, another brilliant economist, spent two grueling years as President Obama's chief economic advisors, trying to untangle the mess. Bottom line to protestors: If Christina struggles with it, you don't understand it.

Like most protests, the Occupy Wall Street folks are better at identifying something that is wrong than identifying a way forward that is right. But even if the protestors don't understand much about financial economics, they have a clear sense that something is wrong. That something, however, lies deeper than the behavior of a relative handful of Wall Street moguls. That something, I believe, is a sense of material entitlement that has crept into the American psyche. This sense of material entitlement has infected our personal choices, our politics, and our financial system. ...

 

Occupy Wall Street - Anti-Corporation?

I don't know the origin of this, but I like it.

Bin Laden Hit Live on Twitter

Wall Street Journal: From Abbottabad, Live-Tweeting the Bin Laden Attack

A man in Abbottabad, the town where Osama bin Laden was killed by the U.S. on Monday, inadvertently live-tweeted the attack as it started.

The man, who uses the Twitter handle “ReallyVirtual”, identifies himself as Sohaib Athar, “an IT consultant taking a break from the rat-race by hiding in the mountains with his laptops.”

Around 11 hours ago, according to the Twitter timeline, Mr. Athar first tweeted about a helicopter hovering above him at 1 a.m., saying it was a “rare event” for Abbottabad. That would have been at about 3.30 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday.

Still, Mr. Athar seems to have thought of it as a mere annoyance, as his next tweet was “Go away helicopter – before I take out my giant swatter :-/”

Within minutes, he tweeted: “A huge window shaking bang here in Abbottabad Cantt. I hope its not the start of something nasty :-S”.

After a while when the sound of the helicopter stopped following a blast, Mr. Athar tweeted “seems like my giant swatter worked !”

That was followed by a Twitter discussion about what had happened. He wrote to “@m0hcin the few people online at this time of the night are saying one of the copters was not Pakistani…”

Mr. Athar noted that “Since taliban (probably) don’t have helicpoters, and since they’re saying it was not ‘ours’, so must be a complicated situation#abbottabad” ...

 

Growing desperation: Iran’s increasing turmoil

Economist: Growing desperation: Iran’s increasing turmoil

Increasingly fierce repression in Iran suggests that the regime has begun to fear for its future.

WHAT more can Iran’s ruthless rulers do to squash their opponents? Since nationwide protests broke out last June over the disputed results of presidential elections, the official winner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has pulled few punches. His security apparatus has beaten and arrested thousands, tried scores of dissidents in kangaroo courts, hounded others into exile, throttled the press and jammed the airwaves. But the massive and violent demonstrations that engulfed the capital, Tehran, and other cities on December 26th and 27th suggested that repression only deepens and broadens the opposition.

Footage of the protests, shot by phones and spread via the internet, revealed scenes of mayhem unprecedented since the 1979 revolution that toppled the shah. Mobs of youths, including many women, attacked and in some cases overcame squads of riot police. The rioters, mostly unmasked in contrast to previous protests, apparently chanted as many slogans against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as against Mr Ahmadinejad. They set police vehicles on fire and torched at least one police station. Plainclothes government thugs fought back, bludgeoning isolated protesters and apparently shooting several at close range.

At least eight people died in Tehran alone, including a nephew of Mir Hosein Mousavi, a former prime minister who is widely thought to have truly won the June election and who has become an opposition figurehead. ...

Was Sec. of State Clinton Out of Line?

I don't think so. If the translation she received was correct, she had every right to get testy. The misunderstanding was graciously resolved. I don't get the big deal.

What should have happened in Gates confrontation?

Christian Science Monitor: What should have happened in Gates confrontation?

Police experts say Gates probably overreacted. But Sergeant Crowley appeared to let the situation spiral out of control, they add.

Every day across America, police officers investigate murders, defuse domestic squabbles, and arrest dope dealers.

But training is just as important when officers come across a "real American" who is combative and refuses to defer to police authority – even if the alleged offense is relatively minor.

The arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr., the prominent Harvard scholar, has brought the issue of race and policing literally from the heights of academic inquiry to a dramatic faceoff between a blue-collar Boston-area cop and one of the ivory tower's most recognizable black scholars.

But perhaps one of the core underlying issues in the incident is one of policing: Officers walk a thin line between staying safe and adhering to the Constitution – and straying over that line can have consequences, especially when it involves the black community. ...

... In his view of the Gates case, which he has studied closely, Mr. Stamper suggests that Gates overreacted. But Cambridge Police Sgt. James Crowley also made a basic mistake: By becoming distracted by Gates's criticisms and protestations, some of which invoked race, his warnings to Gates to calm down fell short of their mark. And as other police officers arrived, Stamper reasons that it became more difficult for Crowley to back down in front of his peers.

"As soon as you give a warning twice, your authority is shot," Stamper says. "Then, you've approached this thing in precisely the opposite way of how you should have approached it."

The best practice, Stamper says, is called "verbal judo" – and it's an art of its own. ...

A few years ago, my sister was doing seminars using a book called Verbal Judo: The Gentle Art of Persuasion. It is written by a former English professor and black-belt Karate master who became a police officer. He writes how he had to learn about gaining compliance with his authority without resorting to physical force. In Karate, you meet force with force. In Judo, you use the opponent's momentum to get them where you want them to go ... thus the metaphor. It isn't just about the police but parenting or being in any position of authority. I've been thinking about this book ever since this story broke. How interesting to see it explicitly referenced.

 

From the "Not So Bright Idea" File

Wall Street Journal: Low-Flying Plane Over Manhattan Was a 'Photo Op'

A jumbo jetliner that serves as Air Force One, escorted by a military jet, flew over Lower Manhattan Monday morning, frightening office workers and causing evacuations in what turned out to be a publicity operation approved by a unit of the U.S. Air Force.

At around 10 a.m. EDT, a Boeing 747 was seen accompanied by an F-16 fighter jet flying low over the southern tip of Manhattan and at one point seen circling the Goldman Sachs Tower in nearby Jersey City, N.J.

The circling planes were part of a "photo op," a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman said. ...

...The low-flying 747 sent workers worried about a repeat of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks fleeing their offices in the New York City area.

Traders bolted from the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange after seeing the jets. The exchange, which sits on the east bank of the Hudson River in lower Manhattan and is blocks from the site of the terrorist-destroyed World Trade Center, didn't order an evacuation.

People trading oil, natural gas and other commodities on the Nymex floor apparently took no chances. A Nymex security official was "literally standing, holding his hands up in a calming gesture. Guys were running right past him," said Pete Donovan, a vice president at Vantage Trading in the crude-futures ring.

But several buildings in the area were ordered evacuated, although workers quickly returned after it became clear that the flyover was a planned event. ...

O.J. Simpson Book, TV Special Canceled

From Red Orbit: O.J. Simpson Book, TV Special Canceled

NEW YORK - After a firestorm of criticism, News. Corp. said Monday that it has canceled the O.J. Simpson book and television special "If I Did It."

"I and senior management agree with the American public that this was an ill-considered project," said Rupert Murdoch, News Corp. chairman. "We are sorry for any pain that his has caused the families of Ron Goldman and Nicole Brown Simpson."

A dozen Fox affiliates had already said they would not air the two-part sweeps month special, planned for next week before the Nov. 30 publication of the book by ReganBooks. The publishing house is a HarperCollins imprint owned - like the Fox network - by News Corp.

Maybe there is hope for American culture.

A salute, a shield to honor sacrifice

From the Kansas City Star: A salute, a shield to honor sacrifice

Patriot Guard members block a protest group’s hate with motorcycles, flags and their respect.

In minutes, the funeral of the slain American soldier would begin. And so would the protests.

Lining both sides of the street in front of Leavenworth High School were 180-plus members of the Patriot Guard, holding American flags, trying to create a human shield around the family of Army Cpl. David M. Unger, who was killed in Iraq Oct. 18.

Nearby were a half-dozen or so protesters from Fred Phelps’ Westboro Baptist Church in Topeka, holding signs and shouting that God hated America and the military, and berating anyone for grieving over any soldier’s death.

.......

They are simple gestures, but the results are felt deeply by soldiers’ families.

“They are angels. … I think they are the best people I’ve ever met,” said Jerry Cole, whose son, Army Cpl. Jeremiah S. Cole of Hiawatha, Kan., was killed Aug. 16 in Afghanistan.

.......

Surprisingly, members of Phelps’ group are some of the guard’s biggest supporters. They say the guard garners more publicity for them than they could generate themselves.

“It’s wonderful to have them (the Patriot Guard) because they’ve amplified our message more than we could have done by ourselves,” said Tim Phelps, a member of the Topeka church. “They come out to these dead-body worshipping funerals and throw a big bawling fit with their motorcycles. We yell and sing.”

Amish Newspaper Says 'Thank You'

From beliefnet:  Amish Newspaper Says 'Thank You' (HT: Stephen Shields)

Every Monday for more than 30 years, the Die Botschaft newspaper has gone into the mailboxes of Amish subscribers nationwide.

Filled with letters from correspondents across the country, the weekly publication prints information from the Amish, for the Amish.

This week's (Oct. 16) issue, though, is an exception. The front page of Die Botschaft reaches out to the English--non-Amish--world.

"Thank You," reads the simple headline at the top of the page.

Under that is a three-paragraph message thanking the state police and emergency crews for their handling of the Oct. 2 Amish school shootings in Lancaster County. Gunman Charles Carl Roberts IV killed five girls and injured five others before killing himself.

The message also thanks members of both the English and Amish communities for their kind acts in the aftermath of the tragedy, and thanks people around the world for their donations and prayers on behalf of the victims and their families.

"It has never happened before. Never. This is very unusual," said the paper's editor, Elam Lapp, when asked when Die Botschaft last printed information aimed at the non-Amish community. The paper is based in Millersburg, about 20 miles north of Harrisburg.

Equally unusual was Lapp's decision to contact a reporter at a non-Amish newspaper, offering a copy of the publication.

Strong Faith and Community May Help Amish Cope With Loss

From the New York Times: Strong Faith and Community May Help Amish Cope With Loss

In one sign of their approach to tragedy, Amish residents started a charity fund yesterday not only to help the victims’ families but also to help the gunman’s widow.

“This is imitation of Christ at its most naked,” Mr. Shachtman said. “If anybody is going to turn the other cheek in our society, it’s going to be the Amish.”

He continued, “I don’t want to denigrate anybody else who says they’re imitating Christ, but the Amish walk the walk as much as they talk the talk.”

Oops: Impostor scams Louisiana officials

Oops: Impostor scams Louisiana officials, is an article from CNN.com. An impostor passing himself off as a HUD official today was yanking the media's chain about 2 billion dollars in funding for New Orleans and a plan to keep Wal-Mart out of the rebuilding process.

A man who pulled a hoax on Louisiana officials and 1,000 contractors by presenting himself as a federal housing official said Monday he intended to focus attention on a lack of affordable housing.

"We basically go around impersonating bad institutes or institutes doing very bad things," said the man, who identified himself as Andy Bichlbaum, a 42-year-old former college teacher of video and media arts who lives in New York and Paris.

"That would be HUD. At this moment, they're doing some really bad things."

Masquerading as Rene Oswin, an official at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Bichlbaum followed Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin to the lectern Monday morning at the Pontchartrain Center in Kenner.

Officials appear not to have found the tactic funny. It also made me wonder about the governor's security detail.

Voters opt for change in S. Korea

Voters opt for change in S. Korea is an article in the Christian Science Monitor about politics in South Korea.

The perception of a central government unable to deal with economic problems and weak in the face of North Korean demands lies at the crux of a reaction that guaranteed conservative victories in two-thirds of the races for provincial governorships and mayors of major cities.

For Korea, the reversion to conservatism portends the downfall of a decade of liberal leadership in the next presidential election in December 2007. While the ruling party's efforts at reconciliation with North Korea were not the paramount issue, the sense of forever making concessions to the North was a factor in the voting - and could be among the policies that change if the liberals are ousted next year.

Colombia's Swing Vote

Colombia's Swing Vote is a very interesting analysis of politics in Latin America.

Most pundits don't have a lot to say about Uribe's sweeping victory over the weekend, other than it's an anomaly in a region supposedly swinging left. That misses the point.

Colombia's voters had choices. But they went for Uribe's bold resolve against terror, and for tax cuts, free trade pacts and a no-apologies friendship with the U.S.

Throw in proven leadership, plus a growing and diversified economy, and it was no wonder Uribe had huge appeal. Sixty-two percent of Colombia's voters backed him; just 22% went for his nearest rival. The landslide not only exceeded predictions. It also was bigger than his 54% victory in 2000. And it was the first time in 98 years that anyone has been re-elected president in Colombia.

.....

Changing times and increased globalization have brought out many new political parties in Latin America. But there are three distinct political trends.

There are Reaganesque free marketers such as Uribe, Antonio Saca of El Salvador and, more dimly, Vicente Fox of Mexico.

They seek to end poverty not by ladling soup into every bowl, but by fostering private-sector growth. They are balancing budgets, simplifying rules, forcing transparency, breaking up monopolies and encouraging new businesses.

Sadly, these leaders are often dismissed as "far right" and thus out of touch with "the people." But they keep winning elections. Along with understanding free markets, this group often makes security a priority, based on the legacy of wars as well as citizen revulsion at violent crime. And it is America-friendly.

It also has plenty in common with Latin America's second political trend — toward a soft socialism that's prevailing in Brazil, Uruguay and Chile. Leaders of this movement aren't hostile to the private sector or to fiscal discipline any more than their "right wing" brethren. They focus less, however, on security and more on government spending on things like infrastructure and education.

Not too different, in short, from Bill Clinton or Tony Blair. Both the free-marketers and the soft socialists also overlap in areas such as health care.

The third political force is the anti-democratic populist left led by quasi-dictators like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia.

This movement hides behind the veneer of socialism, but has virtually nothing in common with it. It equates growth with pork-barrel spending, declares the private sector the enemy, can't distinguish party from government, divides a nation into loyalists and traitors, abuses foreign investors and in the end seeks to collectivize the population into total dependency.

The model here is Fidel Castro's Cuba, and it seemed to have the momentum. Uribe's impressive election, however, is giving the pundits pause.

"The 9 to 5 Window" Mike Crowl

Mick Crowl has an interesting excerpt from a book called The 9 to 5 Window by Os Hillman.

When Timoshenko announced the new Ministers of Parliament, ‘We as believers couldn’t help but laugh,’ said Adelaja, ‘because of who was placed at the head of the Ukrainian KGB: Alexander Turshinov. This man, a believer, grew up in a Baptist family during the Communist regime. The top assignment of the KGB at that time was to destroy religion and faith, Baptists and Evangelicals in particular. Now, the head of this dreaded organisation is a man who believes in the very thing they tried to destroy. Yes, God has a sense of humour!’

Cat Calls 911 to Help Owner, Police Say

For all of you dog people who think cats are useless, you need to read Cat Calls 911 to Help Owner, Police Say. Personally, I have wanted to teach my Tabby to mow the lawn. First, I must get him past being afraid of the blow dryer (and vacuums, and thunder, and ...).

Putin fears hue and cry of Orange Revolution

I wrote recently about the Fourth Turning as an age of crisis. According to William Strauss and Neil Howe, we have just entered that period. Lately, Americans have been almost consumed with national events, terrorism, and events in Iraq. A few days ago, I posted an article about growing unrest about change coming too slowly in China. I read in the paper today that it appears that Bolivia has elected a socialist president who has vowed not to cooperate with the US on stopping coca production. Then I read this article, Putin fears hue and cry of Orange Revolution, which gives a good summary of events happening in Russia.

Moscow no longer is capital of the other global superpower. Its power has declined, its reach receded, its influence waned. Nonetheless it is a country of 145 million people with a vast Eurasian landmass, great reserves of oil and gas, a decaying but nonetheless threatening nuclear arsenal, and continuing aspirations to be a major global force. We ignore the retreat of freedom in Russia at our own peril.

Add France's difficulties with a pluralist society, and it seems we have a volatile mix at work worldwide. There have always been volatile events in the world, but what Strauss and Howe maintain is key is the way a particular generational configuration (i.e., turning) is likely to respond to events. Our present American configuration historically tends to push things to a crisis.

Peace is Spreading: The Troubling Thing is, We Don't Really Know Why

Peace is spreading: the troubling thing is, we don't really know why

This article was in yesterday's Telegraph. Here is an excerpt on speculations about the answer to the question the article raises:

President Bush has repeatedly said that he sees America's role as being to spread "freedom" - short-hand for free trade and free elections. Contrary to popular belief, armed intervention is probably the least effective (and least used) American device for achieving this. Trade agreements (in Central America) and financial support for democratic movements (in Eastern Europe) are achieving much more. So the American empire spreads peace by peaceful means. As more and more governments embrace a version of the American model of liberal democracy, so the number of wars declines.

That's the kind of argument US neo-conservatives love. The trouble is that American intervention has been responsible for ending dictatorships or wars in only a handful of cases. As much, if not more, credit should probably go to the much-maligned "international community" - not only the United Nations, but the World Bank, the World Trade Association and other agencies. There are currently more UN peacekeeping troops deployed round the world than ever before. Particularly in Africa, the international agencies, as well as some European governments, have done far more to end wars than the US, which could not even sort out strife-torn Liberia, a country originally founded by Americans.

Yet maybe there's a third explanation for the recent peace "wave". Maybe local people, regardless of foreign intervention, are simply opting for peace because they're sick to death of fighting each other. War, after all, is attractive only to a minority of people: bored young men and the cynical politicians who see violence as a route to power and its perquisites. That's why only a handful of the post-1989 civil wars lasted longer than seven years.

Presbyterian Disaster Assistance

If you want to help with the Katrina aftermath, I would invite you to consider Presbyterian Disaster Assistance.