One of the most persistent worries about population and economic growth is that we will eventually use up all our resources and land. It is based on the intuitive (but false) assumption that if it takes X acreage of land to feed a person today, then it will take 2 times X acreage to feed double the population in the future. This thinking does not allow for ongoing innovation and adaptation.
Look at this graph showing total global hectares being used in farm production from 1960-2009. Note that the global population grew from 3 billion in 1960, to 6.8 billion in 2009.
The population will likely grow again by half over the next fifty years. Note that the projections are for the number of hectares used for farming to actually decline. The alternative projection assumes we adopt more efficient food consumption and stop growing crops for fuel. In either case, we will be using significantly less land than we did in 1960.
This is one example of decoupling, where two seemingly connected trends become disconnected. We are seeing this in water consumption, CO2 produced per dollar of produced goods, and with the amount of natural resources we use. The direst predictions about resources and climate tend to minimize or ignore these decoupling developments. We should not allow dire predictions that ignore decoupling to frighten us away from growth and achieving prosperity for the whole world.
Challenges? Yes. But we are not at the edge of doom.
Anthropogenic driven climate change is a fact. As the climate changes, the poorest of humanity will suffer the greatest. The most ardent climate activists tell us this is settled science. So settled that to question these conclusions puts you in a league with people who deny the Jewish Holocaust ever happened. It is science!
Well, there is another issue around which there is even more scientific consensus. Megan Molteni, writing for UnDark:
According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center in collaboration with the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 88 percent of scientists believe these foods are safe to eat. Only 37 percent of the general public agrees. Republicans and Democrats are just as likely to be opposed to transgenic foods, as are people across different age groups. So why is it that we trust the National Academy of Sciences and the WHO when they say climate change is likely caused by humans, but not when they say these foods are safe?
Molteni highlights the recent development of goats modified to include an antimicrobial enzyme that helps human’s fight off bacterial cells that cause diarrhea and other infections. The milk from these goats aid children in fighting off these diseases.
According to the World Health Organization, 525,000 children under five died last year from diarrheal diseases, mostly in poor communities in developing nations where waterborne diseases are rampant and vaccines and antibiotic treatments are difficult to acquire and distribute.
The modified goats could reduce the suffering, even death, of millions of children. They were developed by a public university and have had nearly two nearly decades of testing and review. The goats could be distributed via whatever strategy seems most effective, even free. There is no sinister corporate entity lurking in the shadows. So why are the goats not in use?
First, regulation. Clearly GMOs must be evaluated and regulated but the present regulatory system is such a mishmash of regulation and entities that it is very costly and time-consuming to get approval. Consequently, the process is skewed toward large corporate entities who can work the system, provoking many anti-GMOers to make the regulatory process even more of a barrier.
Second, anti-GMOers have organized to oppose all GMO usage in developing nations, at times pitting well-funded European and American activists against poor agricultural workers who could benefit greatly from the technology.
But as scientists will tell you, “GMO” tells you zero about the merits of any particular product. What tells you about the merits is looking at the actual merits of the product!
Last month, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released a report assessing all the science available on genetically engineered crops. It concluded that we shouldn’t be making generalizations about GMOs, but rather asking if a particular crop or GE product makes the world a better place or a more dangerous one, on a case-by-case basis. This was not exactly what people wanted to hear, the authors wrote: “We received impassioned requests to give the public a simple, general, authoritative answer about GE crops. Given the complexity of GE issues, we did not see that as appropriate.”
The goats are not the only product caught up in this controversy. The linked article suggests others. In addition to nutrition and health, GMOs also have a role to play in adapting to warmer temperatures, with crops that grow more food with less water and fewer nutrients, for example.
… improving food security and public health without harming the environment will require the concerted use of many methods, from traditional breeding to organic farming. Genetic modification can’t hold back rising sea levels or fill aquifers drained by years of drought. But there are important contributions to be made with problems that have been unsolvable by other means, the researchers say — if only regulations would allow it.
Climate activists routinely moralize about people who will not get on board with their initiatives, saying deniers are accountable for countless lives that will one day be diminished, even lost, due to our inaction on climate change. The poorest folks will suffer most. This is their scientific conclusion. Yet when the same scientific community says GMO technology is safe, with the potential to save millions of lives in the here and now, while enhancing the welfare of countless others, the activists rise up in opposition to the technology. What this tells me is that while there are some people who are genuinely knowledgeable about the science of climate change and are alarmed about the consequences, the concern by multitudes is less about science and far more to do with subjective narratives with which science (happily for them) agrees. When the “naturalist” narrative is not supported, they disregard science instead of modifying their narrative.
I’d invite to read all of Molteni’s article, Spilled Milk. In the meantime, my climate activist friends, unless you are willing to give full-throated support of GMOs here and now, do not let me ever again here you decry the “anti-science” climate deniers. You are no different. Subjective considerations drive you every bit as much as climate deniers. Right here and right now, people are suffering and dying because of your “anti-science” behavior.
If billions of impoverished humans are not offered a shot at genuine development, the environment will not be saved. And that requires not just help in financing low-carbon energy sources, but also a lot of new energy, period. Offering a solar panel for every thatched roof is not going to cut it.
“We shouldn’t be talking about 10 villages that got power for a light bulb,” said Joyashree Roy, a professor of economics at Jadavpur University in India who was among the leaders of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
“What we should be talking about,” she said, “is how the village got a power connection for a cold storage facility or an industrial park.”
Changing the conversation will not be easy. Our world of seven billion people — expected to reach 11 billion by the end of the century — will require an entirely different environmental paradigm....
... The “eco-modernists” propose economic development as an indispensable precondition to preserving the environment. Achieving it requires dropping the goal of “sustainable development,” supposedly in harmonious interaction with nature, and replacing it with a strategy to shrink humanity’s footprint by using nature more intensively.
“Natural systems will not, as a general rule, be protected or enhanced by the expansion of humankind’s dependence upon them for sustenance and well-being,” they wrote.
To mitigate climate change, spare nature and address global poverty requires nothing less, they argue, than “intensifying many human activities — particularly farming, energy extraction, forestry and settlement — so that they use less land and interfere less with the natural world.”
As Mr. Shellenberger put it, the world would have a better shot at saving nature “by decoupling from nature rather than coupling with it.”
This new framework favors a very different set of policies than those now in vogue. Eating the bounty of small-scale, local farming, for example, may be fine for denizens of Berkeley and Brooklyn. But using it to feed a world of nine billion people would consume every acre of the world’s surface. Big Agriculture, using synthetic fertilizers and modern production techniques, could feed many more people using much less land and water.
As the manifesto notes, as much as three-quarters of all deforestation globally occurred before the Industrial Revolution, when humanity was supposedly in harmony with Mother Nature. Over the last half century, the amount of land required for growing crops and animal feed per average person declined by half. …
… Development would allow people in the world’s poorest countries to move into cities — as they did decades ago in rich nations — and get better educations and jobs. Urban living would accelerate demographic transitions, lowering infant mortality rates and allowing fertility rates to decline, taking further pressure off the planet.
“By understanding and promoting these emergent processes, humans have the opportunity to re-wild and re-green the Earth — even as developing countries achieve modern living standards, and material poverty ends,” the manifesto argues. …
Read the whole thing. Decoupling is essential. We have already seen this with land use. We are using no more land for agriculture in the United States than we were 100 years ago. Before that time it took a fixed amount of land to feed each person. That same decoupling is developing worldwide but it could be accelerated. The amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP has now begun to decline. We see this decoupling with other resources. Add a move to solar and nuclear power in combination with decoupling and we have a real chance to drive down carbon emissions drastically.
I haven't yet read the whole EcoModernist Manifesto linked in the article, but the parameters and reasoning laid here is the best articulation of my views on economic development and sustainability that I have read.
Over the past couple of decades, easier access to clean water has become a reality for a huge portion of the world’s population.
According to a publication released by the World Health Organization, an arm of the United Nations that monitors the health and well-being of people around the world, more than 2 billion people have gained access to an improved source of drinking water since 1990.
An “improved” water source is a water source that is likely not to be susceptible to outside contamination, especially by human waste, according to the UN’s WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Program.
In addition to improved water sources, about 4 billion people have achieved the gold standard in clean water access: clean water piped directly into their homes. That’s well over half the world’s population.
This extraordinary step toward providing universal access to clean water has been the result of a massive global effort on behalf of governments, philanthropists, and nongovernmental organizations. ...
And you might want to add market exchange to the mix. It has also played a role.
Transforming agriculture is central to sub-Saharan Africa's development prospects. Three-quarters of people in extreme poverty – existing on less than $1.25 a day – live in rural areas, and crop yields across the region are often a fraction of those in developed countries.
Increasing productivity could help close that gap and increase farm incomes and food availability, in turn reducing hunger and poverty. But the transformation must go beyond raising farm productivity – it must also build resilience to climate change, which, in the absence of significant investment and adaptation, threatens to devastate African crop yields.
Biotechnology offers an important opportunity to improve crops. In particular, genetic modification (GM) enables plant breeders to increase the potential of crops and reduce the timescales involved. It is especially useful in the case of African staples that have narrow gene pools or are slow-growing or difficult to cross.
Governments, donors and philanthropic foundations have invested considerable resources in the development of GM varieties of staples such as sorghum, cassava, matoke and cowpea in an attempt to bolster nutrient content and resistance to pests, disease and drought. These crops are crucial to the food security and livelihoods of millions of sub-Saharan Africans, but are shunned by private-sector researchers, mainly because of the small market opportunity they offer.
This investment has yet to translate to anything more than successful field trials: no GM trait developed for African farmers has been cleared for release by a government. There are many reasons why this is so, but chief among them is the polarised debate about GM crops. ...
... But what typically determines whether a GM crop is approved for release in Africa is not a balanced, independent assessment of risks and benefits, but a political judgment shaped by distrust and suspicion of the technology. ...
... As a result, GM crops are stuck on a treadmill of continual field trials. Governments are in effect attempting to balance the demands of pro- and anti-GM lobbies: proponents have a pipeline of technologies; opponents are appeased by the failure of any to gain approval.
This balancing act may be politically expedient, but it represents poor value for money for the public bodies and foundations funding research and does nothing for the farmers and consumers who could potentially benefit from GM crops.
"... And the Missouri-based company Beyond Meat thinks it has the solution to satisfy our cravings: food that looks and tastes just like meat — but is made of plants. It is such a good imitation, in fact, that Whole Foods customers couldn't tell the difference when a brief mix-up occurred last year."
Humans have spent the last 10,000 years mastering agriculture, but it just takes a dry spell, or a flash flood to wipe out a year's worth of crops.
Hoping to solve this problem is plant physiologist Shigeharu Shimamura, who has set up an industrial-scale farm inside a factory in Japan.
Closely controlled using specially-designed LED lamps, the farm opened earlier this month and is already said to be producing 10,000 heads of lettuce a day.
The farm is nearly half the size of a football field (25,000 square feet) and is built in a former Sony Corporation semiconductor factory in Kashiwa, Chiba Prefecture in Japan.
It farm uses 17,500 LED lights spread over 18 cultivation racks, reaching 16 levels high - and these lights are used to mimic day and night.
By monitoring the photosynthesis process carefully, the system grows lettuce two-and-a-half times faster than an outdoor farm.
It also cuts waste product by 40 per cent and productivity per square foot is up 100-fold. ...
... Stine Seed does business with all of the heavyweights and has for more than three decades, primarily because it has something everybody else needs: the best-performing soybean seeds in the business. Through plant breeding, a roughly 10,000-year-old technique that’s not unlike creating Thoroughbred horses or show dogs, Stine has been perfecting the genetic makeup of soybean seeds–primarily used in animal feed and to produce vegetable oils–since the 1960s. The basic technology may be ancient, but an innovative, data-savvy strategy, married with shrewd leadership and a classic midwestern work ethic, has made Stine’s operation best in class. He isn’t bashful about what his small-town company has accomplished.
“Our germplasm–our genetic base here–is the best in the world,” says Stine. “We dominate genetics in the industry.” ...
... While rivals scoff, he now thinks he can double the world’s output of corn, the most popular crop on Earth. By breeding corn seeds genetically predisposed to thrive when planted in high densities, he thinks he can supercharge the engine generating animal feed, biofuels and food for the whole planet. “We’re going to be able to double corn yields very easily,” says Stine. “And apparently a lot of people working in the same industry can’t see that…. They think, ‘How can this be? And furthermore, how can this little farm kid out here be doing this?’”
After seven years of genetic tinkering he’s won plenty of converts. “It’s an insight that will revolutionize the corn industry,” says Dermot Hayes, a professor of agribusiness at Iowa State University. If it works out, it won’t be the first time this farm kid, unknown outside his industry, has changed the world. ...
... The secret to Stine’s golden corn? Efficiency. In the early 1930s, prior to the Dust Bowl, 7,000 corn plants per acre were grown in the U.S., yielding about 27 bushels per acre. Seeds were planted in rows 42 inches apart so horses could traverse the fields. Now 35,000 plants and 150 bushels per acre is common–nearly five times the yield–thanks to modern tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and seeds genetically modified to resist insects and herbicides. But while genetic modification–using biotechnology to insert a genetic trait into a seed–grabs headlines (and stokes health fears, despite overwhelming scientific evidence of safety), traditional breeding programs by seed developers have done just as much to raise yields. ...
... Stine flipped the conventional wisdom on its head. He began breeding corn to thrive at higher planting density: shorter plants with smaller tassels and more upright leaves that attract more sunlight. A leaner, more efficient plant. After breeding many descendants of the seeds with that genetic makeup, the company has developed corn that can be planted in much narrower rows–12 inches or even pairs of rows 8 inches apart–increasing the number of plants per acre to as much as 80,000. And, of ultimate importance, substantially increasing a farmer’s harvest. ...
Our friend and colleague Max Fisher over at Worldviews has posted another 40 maps that explain the world, building on his original classic of the genre. But this is Wonkblog. We're about charts. And one of the great things about charts is that they show not just how things are -- but how they're changing.
So we searched for charts that would tell not just the story of how the world is -- but where it's going. Some of these charts are optimistic, like the ones showing huge gains in life expectancy in poorer nations. Some are more worryisome -- wait till you see the one on endangered species. But together they tell a story of a world that's changing faster than at arguably any other time in human history. ...
As the author notes, we have challenges but we hardly descending into some global dystopia. I think these charts give a pretty holistic view. Here are a three examples. It was commonly believed that primitive societies were more peaceful and that modern civilization gave rise to unprecedented violence. This chart compares death rates by war in primitive societies as calculated by anthropologists to the death rates for Europe/USA in the 20th century. And then there is this:
The graphs point to environmental protection and adaptation as the biggest problems in the days ahead. Those challenges are not insurmountable. Energy sources like natural gas and nuclear power can be used in the interim on the way to practical renewable technologies. Genetically modified crops can help to reduce water consumption, increase yield, and improve hardiness. Innovations in fields like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and 3-D printing hold the promise of revolutionizing the world economy into a less wasteful and more affordable human existence for everyone. There is work to do but there is also much reason for hope of a better world.
Greens say climate-change deniers are unscientific and dangerous. So are greens who oppose GM crops. ...
... There is plenty of evidence, though, that they benefit the health of the planet. One of the biggest challenges facing mankind is to feed the 9 billion-10 billion people who will be alive and (hopefully) richer in 2050. This will require doubling food production on roughly the same area of land, using less water and fewer chemicals. It will also mean making food crops more resistant to the droughts and floods that seem likely if climate change is a bad as scientists fear.
Organic farming—the kind beloved of greens—cannot meet this challenge. It uses far too much land. If the Green revolution had never happened, and yields had stayed at 1960 levels, the world could not produce its current food output even if it ploughed up every last acre of cultivable land.
In contrast, GM crops boost yields, protecting wild habitat from the plough. They are more resistant to the vagaries of climate change, and to diseases and pests, reducing the need for agrochemicals. Genetic research holds out the possibility of breakthroughs that could vastly increase the productivity of farming, such as grains that fix their own nitrogen. Vandalising GM field trials is a bit like the campaign of some religious leaders to prevent smallpox inoculations: it causes misery, even death, in the name of obscurantism and unscientific belief. ...
More than $1 trillion has been spent on biomedical research over the past 20 years. These investments should soon start yielding longevity dividends.
The number of scientists working on extending the life span worldwide has increased exponentially as computer and communications technologies have entered the mainstream and China and India have joined the race.
The life spans of some laboratory animals have already been extended more than tenfold.
Innovations have already started: vital organs have been grown from patients’ own cells and several stem-cell therapies are being proven.
Cancer survival rates have increased steadily over the past few years. A diagnosis is no longer a certain death sentence.
Advances in laboratory diagnostics and biometrics are already providing valuable insight into disease prevention.
Fast-food outlets have started offering healthier dishes and displaying caloric content and smoking rates in developed countries have declined.
Many people would not interpret these seven facts as a single trend leading to dramatic increases in life expectancy because the long-term effects are so unpredictable. But just two decades ago, nobody could imagine the possibility of the technology we use daily now. ...
University of Adelaide researchers have developed a process for turning waste plastic bags into a high-tech nanomaterial.
The innovative nanotechnology uses non-biodegradable plastic grocery
bags to make 'carbon nanotube membranes' – highly sophisticated and
expensive materials with a variety of potential advanced applications
including filtration, sensing, energy storage and a range of biomedical
innovations.
"Non-biodegradable plastic bags are a serious menace to natural ecosystems and present a problem in terms of disposal," says Professor Dusan Losic, ARC Future Fellow and Research Professor of Nanotechnology in the University's School of Chemical Engineering.
"Transforming these waste materials through 'nanotechnological
recycling' provides a potential solution for minimising environmental
pollution at the same time as producing high-added value products." ...
(Nanowerk News) Drexel University nanotechnology researchers
are continuing to expand the capabilities and functionalities of a
family of two-dimensional materials they discovered that are as thin as a
single atom, but have the potential to store massive amounts of energy.
Their latest achievement has pushed the materials storage capacities to
new levels while also allowing for their use in flexible devices. ...
BELLEVUE, Wash. — In a drab one-story building here, set between an
indoor tennis club and a home appliance showroom, dozens of engineers,
physicists and nuclear experts are chasing a radical dream of Bill
Gates.
The quest is for a new kind of nuclear reactor that would be fueled by
today’s nuclear waste, supply all the electricity in the United States
for the next 800 years and, possibly, cut the risk of nuclear weapons
proliferation around the world. ...
... But now Net Power, based in the US state of North Carolina, believes
it can redesign the power plant so it can still run on coal or natural
gas, but without releasing harmful fumes.
Rodney Allam, chief technologist at 8 Rivers Capital, which
owns Net Power, says: "The perception has been that to avoid emissions
of [carbon dioxide] CO2, we have to get rid of fossil fuels.
"But unfortunately, fossil fuels represent over 70% of the
fuel that's consumed in the world and the idea that you can get rid of
that in any meaningful sense is a pipe dream."
The Net Power system is different from currently operating power plants
because carbon dioxide, normally produced as waste when making
electricity, would become a key ingredient when burning the fuel. ...
MOFFETT FIELD, California (AP) — NASA is preparing to launch a 3-D
printer into space next year, a toaster-sized game changer that greatly
reduces the need for astronauts to load up with every tool, spare part
or supply they might ever need.
The printers would serve as a
flying factory of infinite designs, creating objects by extruding layer
upon layer of plastic from long strands coiled around large spools.
Doctors use them to make replacement joints and artists use them to
build exquisite jewelry.
In NASA labs, engineers are 3-D printing
small satellites that could shoot out of the Space Station and transmit
data to earth, as well as replacement parts and rocket pieces that can
survive extreme temperatures. ...
... In the '90s computers invaded our homes. In the 2000s computers invaded our pockets. This decade, all our clothing, accessories, vehicles, and everything (?!) appear on the verge of computerization.
Welcome to the Internet of Things (IoT).
Currently the idea of the IoT has many definitions. Most include a
world in the not-too-distant future where most objects are computerized
and seamlessly integrated into our information network, creating "smart"
grids, homes, and environments. ...
... This presents a big opportunity for someone who can devise a tasty and
affordable plant-based substitute for meat. That is exactly what Ethan
Brown, the founder and chief executive of a California-based startup
called Beyond Meat,
aims to do, and he has persuaded some smart people to put their money
behind him. Beyond Meat makes vegan "chicken-free" strips that it says
are better for people's health (low-fat, no cholesterol), better for the
environment (requiring less land and water), and better for animals
(obviously) than real chicken; most important, if all goes according to
plan, they will cost less to produce than chicken. Fortune has
learned that Bill Gates is an investor; he sampled the product and said
he couldn't tell the difference between Beyond Meat and real chicken.
"The meat market is ripe for invention," Gates wrote in a blog post
about the future of food. Kleiner Perkins, the Silicon Valley venture
capital firm, made Beyond Meat its first investment in a food startup.
"KP is looking for big ideas, and this qualifies as a big idea," says
Amol Deshpande, a former Cargill executive and a partner at the venture
firm. "The single biggest inefficiency in agriculture is how we get our
protein." Other investors include Evan Williams and Biz Stone, the
founders of Twitter; Morgan Creek Capital Management; and the Humane
Society of the United States, an animal-welfare group. ...
Food waste is a big problem in the rich world, and
even more so in the developing world. Recently, much has been written suggesting
that one of the best ways to improve the sustainability and lower the footprint
of food production is to reduce waste. While this is absolutely true, the
missing perspective is that efforts to reduce food waste have been going on for
a very long time, and significant advances have been made over the last several
decades.
That does not mean there isn't plenty of room for
additional progress, but that is harder than many might imagine. I think
that by considering what has already been done, we can get a perspective on the
remaining challenges. I'd like to focus on fruit and vegetables and to talk
about just 10 of the many ways that industry routinely reduces food waste. I'll
cover methods 1 to 5 here and 6 to 10 in tomorrow's post.
... Because here’s something astounding: The amount of food waste produced globally each year is more than enough to feed the nearly 1 billion hungry people in the world.
But does that mean we should stuff ourselves even when we’re full? Nope, that’s not helping anybody. So what’s a pea-hating child-turned-adult to do?
First of all, don’t let the guilt paralyze you. Cutting back on food waste is incredibly easy, and we’ve made it even simpler by putting together 29 tips designed to reduce food waste at the grocery store, at home, and during meals. ...
... Unfortunately, the U.S. is currently one of the largest culprits in this waste-making racket. Some sources estimate Americans trash as much as 40 percent of our food supply every year, and food waste is one of the largest components of solid waste in U.S. landfills. And we’re not just wasting food: All those groceries in the trash add up to almost $165 billion lost annually, not to mention the environmental resources that are wasted on growing food that’s thrown away.
These numbers are so startling that the U.N. has recently begun a new global campaign, Think Eat Save, dedicated to combating food wasted by consumers, retailers, and the hospitality industry. ...
Ten reasons why Africa can feed itself—and help feed the rest of the world too. ...
1. More Africans now live in cities
Africa is the most rapidly urbanizing region on the planet. And while it may seem counterintuitive, that’s great news for farmers.
“The single biggest stimulus to most farmers is a thriving local city,”
says Wiggins, who leads the agriculture program at the United Kingdom’s
Overseas Development Institute. ...
2. Farming is now cool
Farming in Africa is not only profitable, it’s become popular. Even the
educated and well-off, who long shunned getting their hands dirty, now
extol farming as a path to prosperity. ...
3. International demand for Africa’s crops is soaring
Global prices for African cocoa, cotton, and even green beans are at or
near historic highs. Cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, commands
double what it did in the 1990s, which means the farmers in Ghana who
grow it are together collecting $2 billion annually. Europe’s surging
demand for fresh vegetables and cut flowers has been a windfall for
African farmers. Even ordinary staples, such as maize, have risen
markedly in price. ...
4. The “lost crops” of Africa have been rediscovered
Long ignored, Africa’s “forgotten” crops, including cassava, sunflower
seeds, and cowpeas, have in the last two decades rapidly expanded in
production, bringing unexpected benefits. ...
5. Information technology is boosting farmers’ profits
Go to any African market in even the tiniest village and you’ll see
farmers busily text-messaging on their cellphones. By linking buyers and
sellers, and making it easier to disseminate important information like
market prices and better planting and harvesting techniques,
information technology is greatly enhancing farmer productivity and
allowing coordination at an unprecedented scale. ...
6. African farms use the least amount of modern technology in the world, so any uptick in usage could lead to enormous gains
Two of the most important technologies in farming are irrigation and
fertilizers, and yet both are largely absent in Africa. Cost is the
major reason. In much of the sub-Sahara, fertilizer costs two to three
times more than it does anywhere else in the world, largely because of
the shipping costs of imported ingredients. Irrigation schemes,
meanwhile, require government support, which has until now been
virtually absent. Once these two proven techniques become more
widespread, as they have nearly everywhere else, African farm
productivity will soar. ...
7. Government support for food producers is getting better
Everyone agrees that African farmers remain heavily inhibited by poor governance. ... But government aid to farmers is improving. ...
8. Women are getting better educated, and that will lead to better farm outcomes
Harsher environments will force African farmers (and their counterparts
around the world) to work smarter and make long-term investments that
they should be making anyway. In staving off doom, they will actually be
building a more sustainable future. ...
10. Africa has done it before and can do it again
After World War II, a starving Europe, its farms ruined by the most
destructive conflict in human history, leaned heavily on growers south
of the Sahara. Wheat from Kenya, maize from Zimbabwe, and fruits and
vegetables from western and southern Africa adorned European tables.
African farmers prospered, and by the early 1960s, they supplied 8
percent of the world’s tradable food. ...
British scientists say they have developed a new type of wheat which could increase productivity by 30%.
The Cambridge-based National Institute of Agricultural Botany has
combined an ancient ancestor of wheat with a modern variety to produce a
new strain.
In early trials, the resulting crop seemed bigger and stronger than the current modern wheat varieties. ...
... One in five of all the calories consumed round the world come from wheat.
But despite steady improvement in the late 20th century, the
last 15 years have seen little growth in the average wheat harvest from
each acre in Britain. ...
... Around 10,000 years ago wheat evolved from goat grass and other primitive grains.
The scientists used cross-pollination and seed embryo
transfer technology to transfer some of the resilience of the ancient
ancestor of wheat into modern British varieties.
The process required no genetic modification of the crops. ...
A water purification system that uses nanotechnology to remove
bacteria, viruses and other contaminants may be able to deliver clean
drinking water to rural communities for less than $3 a year per family,
according to a new study.
Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Madras in Chennai,
India, developed a purification device that filters water through a
specially crafted mixture of nanoparticles to remove harmful contaminants. Their study was published today (May 6) in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The device, which is currently being tested in communities in India,
could offer an affordable way to provide small families with at least 10
liters (2.6 gallons) of safe drinking water
per day, said study co-author Thalappil Pradeep, a professor in the
department of chemistry at the Indian Institute of Technology Madras. ...
1. The United States had its financial bubble. Europe is having one too. Is China next? If it is, it could reshape the global economy and radically reshape Chinese government. Here is an interesting piece about China's real estate bubble.
... I like the idea of a breaking the Industrial Revolution into stages,
but I would define them in more fundamental terms. The first Industrial
Revolution was the harnessing of large-scale man-made power, which began
with the steam engine. The internal combustion engine, electric power,
and other sources of energy are just further refinements of this basic
idea. The second Industrial Revolution would be the development of
interchangeable parts and the assembly line, which made possible
inexpensive mass production with relatively unskilled labor. The Third
Industrial Revolution would not be computers, the Internet, or mobile
phones, because up to now these have not been industrial tools;
they have been used for moving information, not for making things.
Instead, the rise of computers and the Internet is just a warm-up for
the real Third Industrial Revolution, which is the full integration of information technology with industrial production.
The effect of the Third Industrial Revolution will be to collapse the
distance between the design of a product and its physical manufacture,
in much the same way that the Internet has eliminated the distance
between the origination of a new idea and its communication to an
audience. ...
... Eventually all of the creative ferment of the industrial revolution pays
off in a big “whoosh,” but it takes many decades, depending on where
you draw the starting line of course. A look at the early 19th century
is sobering, or should be, for anyone doing fiscal budgeting today. But
it is also optimistic in terms of the larger picture facing humanity
over the longer run.
5. What are the contours of income inequality in the United States? This 40 minute video by Emmanuel Saez offers some important insights.
6. Futurist Ray Kurzweil is a little too sensationalist for my taste but this vid offers interesting food for thought about nanotechnology and the future sports. We will even be able to have meaningful sports competition?
The recovered wealth - most of it from higher stock prices - has been
flowing mainly to richer Americans. By contrast, middle class wealth is
mostly in the form of home equity, which has risen much less.
This is a promotional piece by an Australian company called Vertical Farm Systems. This technology is still in its infancy and there are detractors, but this promtional video is a great summary of how one commerical firm sees the promise of vertical farming.
This
post is part of the Roadmap To The Future Series. Roadmap To The Future
explores innovative industry trends and breakthroughs in science,
entertainment, and technology. This series is sponsored by Verizon.
Mold is the bane of any bread-lover's existence.
The fear of green fuzzy splotches making baked goods unfit to eat within days of purchase may soon be relieved.
MicroZap, a company
based in Texas, has developed a method to keep bread mold-free for 60
days. That's about six times longer than the shelf-life of regular
packaged bread.
"We probably could have gone farther, we just didn't try it," CEO Don Stull told Business Insider.
Either way, a longer lifespan helps cut down on food waste, while encouraging manufacturers to get rid of preservatives. ...
It will be interesting to see if this takes hold. Years ago
they developed irradiated meat which, as long as it was kept sealed, you store
in your cupboard without refrigeration. The concept is so counterintuitive that
to this day it hasn't been commercialized (that I know of.)
... To better understand
the impact of technology on jobs, The Associated Press analyzed
employment data from 20 countries; and interviewed economists,
technology experts, robot manufacturers, software developers, CEOs and
workers who are competing with smarter machines.
The
AP found that almost all the jobs disappearing are in industries that
pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. Jobs that form
the backbone of the middle class in developed countries in Europe, North
America and Asia.
In the United States, half
of the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession paid
middle-class wages, and the numbers are even more grim in the 17
European countries that use the euro as their currency. A total of 7.6
million midpay jobs disappeared in those countries from January 2008
through last June.
Those jobs are being replaced in many cases by machines and software that can do the same work better and cheaper.
"Everything
that humans can do a machine can do," says Moshe Vardi, a computer
scientist at Rice University in Houston. "Things are happening that look
like science fiction." ...
... So machines are
getting smarter and people are more comfortable using them. Those
factors, combined with the financial pressures of the Great Recession,
have led companies and government agencies to cut jobs the past five
years, yet continue to operate just as well.
How is that happening?
-Reduced
aid from Indiana's state government and other budget problems forced
the Gary, Ind., public school system last year to cut its annual
transportation budget in half, to $5 million. The school district
responded by using sophisticated software to draw up new, more efficient
bus routes. And it cut 80 of 160 drivers. ...
... -In South Korea, Standard Chartered is
expanding "smart banking" branches that employ a staff of three,
compared with an average of about eight in traditional branches. ...
... -The
British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto announced plans last year to
invest $518 million in the world's first long-haul, heavy-duty
driverless train system at its Pilbara iron ore mines in Western
Australia. The automated trains are expected to start running next year.
The trains are part of what Rio Tinto calls its "Mine of the Future"
program, which includes 150 driverless trucks and automated drills.
Like
many technologically savvy startups, Dirk Vander Kooij's
furniture-making company in the Netherlands needs only a skeleton crew -
four people ...
... -Google's driverless car and the Pentagon's
drone aircraft are raising the specter of highways and skies filled with
cars and planes that can get around by themselves. ...
... "Trying to keep it from happening would have
been like the Teamsters in the early 1900s trying to stop the
combustion engine," Lavin says. "You can't stand in the way of
technology."
The upside of emerging technology is that most will make goods and services
less expensive. That improves our living standard. The downside is that much of
the work we used to do in order to earn the wages to buy goods and services is
rapidly changing. As the last sentence of the article notes, this is not the
first time we have been in these circumstances. Years ago I read that in 1885,
approximately 80% of everything we consumed in the U.S. was produced at home.
By 1915, 80% was produced outside the home. It created massive economic
dislocations. Each time these disruptions occur it has been hard for the people
living at that time to foresee what the new economic order would look like.
It is critical that Christian thinkers wrestle with the challenges of technological
innovation. Creative destruction (the market dynamic where jobs and industries
are destroyed in the wake of creating new ones) has always been a difficult one
for ethics. It is painful but the social cost of other alternatives is also
quite high. Anti-technological calls to abandon consumerism or, conversely,
just saying that “the market will sort it all out,” are not legitimate
responses. I think topics like this should be at the center of our theological
reflection about human labor and the economy.
Last week I linked an article reporting that rich
countries are trashing up to half of all food. Our distribution channels
are good but we tend to waste a lot of food through our consumption habits.
Emerging nations are wasting food too, but for different reasons. Distribution
channels are so bad that great quantities of food are wasted in transit. Furthermore,
because the distribution channels are so bad, and food must pass through so
many middle-men, it is often more expensive than it would otherwise need to be.
Business Insider now reports:
Last fall, following a relaxation in
India’s foreign-investment rules, [Wal-Mart] said it was planning to open its
first stores in the country in the next two years, tapping into a prized $490
billion retail sector. But to cash in, Wal-Mart and other foreign
retailers will have to solve a fundamental problem: how to move goods into
stores efficiently in a country that offers big retailers little in the way of
modern logistics and is plagued by dilapidated infrastructure.
The hurdles are particularly daunting in
the food sector, which makes up more than half of the revenues at the
Bentonville, Ark.- based company.
Watch this video by the Wall Street Journal as the document the
route of food from field to table. Here the age old cry of the various agents
in present decrepit system opposing streamlined distribution for fear of losing
their positions. The reality is that if distribution improves, then food will
become cheaper, people will have more disposable income, people will eat
better, people will become more productive, and all this will in turn lead to
the formation of new businesses and jobs. I'm not saying the change will be
painless and that some will not suffer in the process but I suspect the
trade-off for the masses in terms of improved quality of life is huge.
... People in developed countries throw away 30 to 50 percent
of the food they purchase, according to a new report by the Institution
of Mechanical Engineers. In total, the researchers estimated, 1.2 to 2
billion tons of food is thrown out every year without reaching a human
stomach.
A major reason we're tossing our food is that stores push us to buy too much of it,
the report found. Additionally, supermarkets often reject shipments of
vegetables and fruits that don't meet their marketing standards. As a
result, 30 to 50 percent of food produced on the planet is discarded as useless, even if some of it is perfectly edible.
My understanding is that there is also food waste in
developing nations, though for different reasons. Poor infrastructure and
technology lead to spoilage and waste as the food moves from the field to the
dinner plate. A combination of more productive agricultural methods and just
modest reductions in waste would make food more plentiful without using one
more acre of land.
"... Is this a catastrophe of the sort that took place a generation ago,
when mass famines in the 1950s, 1960s and early 1970s killed hundreds of
thousands of people at a time? No. This time around, the cause is much
simpler, and the solution much more readily at hand. We’re experiencing a
basic crisis of undersupply: After three decades of worldwide food
surpluses, starting in 2008, the world’s farms have not produced enough
food to meet demand.
People no longer doubt, as they did 40 years
ago, that the world is capable of producing enough food for all of
humanity, even if our numbers grow to nine billion. We know it can, and
we know how to make it happen. Farms in Africa and the Indian
subcontinent – where the land is fertile and the growing season long –
should be producing much more food than their European counterparts.
Instead, India produces half as much per hectare, and Africa hardly
anything. They could easily feed the world.
This isn’t hard to
solve, and farmers know what’s needed: better transport and market
infrastructure, new seeds engineered for their climates and needs, an
end to subsidies and trade barriers, a shift from survival-based to
commercial farming practices. And these things are being done (in part
because farming is suddenly profitable), albeit too slowly. This decade
may well be remembered as the unfortunate gap between the first Green
Revolution (which ended mass famines and widespread Asian starvation in
the 1970s) and the second (which is poised to make even bigger changes
in Africa and Asia). Until supply catches up to demand, we have a
crisis.
What stands in the way, this time as last time, is
misunderstanding. Aid organizations in the West and governments in the
developing world, motivated by myths of village tranquillity, pay people
to stay rural rather than to consolidate their holdings and modernize
their farming. Too many people believe, falsely, that a shift to
commercial agriculture means a shift to big or exploitative farms,
rather than more income for small farmers. We allow superstitions about
engineered crops to become progress-blocking policies. We let
meaningless middle-class fetishes for “organic” or “local” foods pollute
the debate, when what’s needed is more protein, now. ..."
(Like the Kruse Kronicle at Facebook if you want links to daily posts to appear in your Facebook feed.)
1. Pray for Egypt Today!
More than 50 million Egyptians are voting today on a constitution that would be a giant step backward for Egypt and much of the Middle East, marginalizing women and religious minorities. A nation that has historically been a voice of moderation, the largest Muslim nation in the region, will likely move toward becoming an Islamist state. Remember to pray for Egypt. (See the Economist'sThe Founding Brothers)
2. Our prayers are with families of the victims at the Sandy Hook elementary school. Grace and peace to the entire community.
Traffic deaths in the USA continued their historic decline last year,
falling to the lowest level since 1949, the government announced
Monday.
A total of 32,367 motorists, bicyclists and pedestrians died in 2011,
a 1.9% decrease from 2010. Last year’s toll represents a 26% decline
from 2005, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
said. ...
... The trend has emerged in big cities like New York and Los Angeles, as
well as smaller places like Anchorage, Alaska, and Kearney, Neb. The
state of Mississippi has also registered a drop, but only among white
students.
“It’s been nothing but bad news for 30 years, so the fact that we have
any good news is a big story,” said Dr. Thomas Farley, the health
commissioner in New York City, which reported a 5.5 percent decline in
the number of obese schoolchildren from 2007 to 2011....
....The experiment, in April, used a disabled form of the virus that causes AIDS to reprogram Emma’s immune system genetically to kill cancer cells. ...
... The research is still in its early stages, and many questions remain.
The researchers are not entirely sure why the treatment works, or why it
sometimes fails. One patient had a remission after being treated only
twice, and even then the reaction was so delayed that it took the
researchers by surprise. For the patients who had no response
whatsoever, the team suspects a flawed batch of T-cells. The child who
had a temporary remission apparently relapsed because not all of her
leukemic cells had the marker that was targeted by the altered T-cells. ...
....In 2011, 1.4 million chlamydia infections were reported to the CDC.
The rate of cases per 100,000 people increased 8%, to 457.6 in 2011 from
423.6 in 2010.
The CDC reported 321,849 gonorrhea infections. The
rate increased 4% to 104.2 cases per 100,000 in 2011 from 100.2 in
2010. Like chlamydia, gonorrhea can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease,
a major cause of infertility in women.
Last year, 13,970 primary and secondary syphilis cases were reported. The rate of 4.5 cases per 100,000 was unchanged from 2010. ...
7. You may be bilingual but can you write in two languages, one with each hand, at the same time?!
10. Kevin Drum of Mother Jones speculates on why liberals have more exaggerated perceptions of political differences. We Are More Alike Than We Think
11. A surprising "right to work" bill was signed into law in Michigan, of all places. That has spurred a lot of debate about unions and the right to work. Michael Kinsley wrote a thoughtful piece opposing RTW, The Liberal Case Against Right-to-Work Laws. David Henderson has piece in support of RTW, The Economics of "Right to Work".
12. Slate has a piece about The Great Schism in the Environmental Movement.
Keith Kloor opines on the division between mondernist environmentalists
(or eco-pragmatists) and conservation traditionalists.
...
Modernist greens don't dispute the ecological tumult associated with the
Anthropocene. But this is the world as it is, they say, so we might as
well reconcile the needs of people with the needs of nature. To this
end, Kareiva advises conservationists to craft "a new vision of a planet
in which nature—forests, wetlands, diverse species, and other ancient
ecosystems—exists amid a wide variety of modern, human landscapes."
This
shift in thinking is already under way. For example, ecologists
increasingly appreciate (and study) the diversity of species and
importance of ecosystem services in cities, giving rise to the
discipline of urban ecology. That was unthinkable at the dawn of the
modern environmental movement 50 years ago, when greens loathed cities
as the antithesis of wilderness. ...
13. One of the creepiest Twilight Zone episodes I remember from my
childhood was when this woman ends up trapped in a department store at
night. The mannequins begin calling to her. She discovers she is actually a mannequin who
has over stayed her time out in the world and it is time for the next
mannequin to spend some time outside the store. This story confirms my worst nightmares: In Some Stores, the Mannequins Are Watching You
15. One of the biggest concerns about fracking technology is the enormous amount of water it uses. A company has figured out how to recycle water so that far less water is used in the fracking process. Solving fracking's biggest problem
... 3D printing represents the latest version of what industry experts call
"additive manufacturing" — a way to turn practically any computer
designs into real objects by building them up layer-by-layer using
plastics, metals or other materials. The technology could end up
affecting every major industry — aerospace, defense, medicine, transportation, food, fashion — and have an even bigger impact on U.S. manufacturing than the robot revolution. ...
20. Michael Cheshire has a great piece in Leadership Journal on "What I learned about grace and redemption through my friendship with a Christian pariah." Going To Hell with Ted Haggard
".... A while back I was having a business lunch at a sports bar in the
Denver area with a close atheist friend. He's a great guy and a very
deep thinker. During lunch, he pointed at the large TV screen on the
wall. It was set to a channel recapping Ted's fall. He pointed his
finger at the HD and said, "That is the reason I will not become a
Christian. Many of the things you say make sense, Mike, but that's what
keeps me away."
It was well after the story had died down, so I had to study the screen
to see what my friend was talking about. I assumed he was referring to
Ted's hypocrisy. "Hey man, not all of us do things like that," I
responded. He laughed and said, "Michael, you just proved my point. See,
that guy said sorry a long time ago. Even his wife and kids stayed and
forgave him, but all you Christians still seem to hate him. You guys
can't forgive him and let him back into your good graces. Every time you
talk to me about God, you explain that he will take me as I am. You say
he forgives all my failures and will restore my hope, and as long as I
stay outside the church, you say God wants to forgive me. But that guy
failed while he was one of you, and most of you are still vicious to
him." Then he uttered words that left me reeling: "You Christians eat
your own. Always have. Always will."
He was running late for a meeting and had to take off. I, however, could
barely move. I studied the TV and read the caption as a well-known
religious leader kept shoveling dirt on a man who had admitted he was
unclean. And at that moment, my heart started to change. I began to
distance myself from my previously harsh statements and tried to
understand what Ted and his family must have been through. When I
brought up the topic to other men and women I love and respect, the very
mention of Haggard's name made our conversations toxic. Their reactions
were visceral."
21. Leonardo Bonucci got a yellow card for faking collision during a
soccer game. It should have been a red card. No one deserves to be a professional soccer player with acting skills
this bad!
This is a good piece about the growing challenges of fresh water supplies around the world. After detialing at length the challenges the article concludes:
... But the picture may not be as bad as it seems. While the projections about the growing global water crisis drastically underestimate how bad things really are, says Upmanu Lall, director of the Water Center at Columbia University, they also underestimate the scale of waste and the water efficiency improvements that could make adaptation easier.
"Things could actually be worse than what these guys are putting out," says Professor Lall. "They are too optimistic about the current situation compared to what it actually is. And they're too pessimistic about the situation for the future ... I do see a way to get there."
That's what he's learned from much of his work on water issues in India, which he calls "a basket case for water." He adds: "You could actually eliminate water stress in India if you were just a little bit smarter about which places you were procuring which crops from."
Science, he says, is part of the solution: Agricultural efficiency can be drastically improved with a better mix of what is grown where, accounting for geography, water constraints, and income; governments will have a role to play in setting economic signals to promote conservation and the right mix of crops, and regulation to ensure access in urban and rural areas; cheap soil-moisture sensors could improve agricultural water efficiency by 10 to 15 percent by reducing waste in irrigation systems; recycled waste water could save in the billions of dollars that the US spends purifying water up to drinking quality even though only 10 percent is used for drinking and cooking; flood-control systems can be repurposed to store water.
But most important, says Lall, "the economics of it has to be sorted out." Water allocations for personal consumption and ecological preservation should be protected, he said, but about 75 percent of water consumed globally should be subject to more competitive pricing. In a sense, he argues, water should be treated like oil, allowing developers a guaranteed allocation as an incentive to develop it. About a quarter of water supplies should be protected to ensure people have water for drinking and to preserve ecology, he says. But everyone – from the home-owner watering the lawn to big industry and agriculture – should pay more for water.
Instability, conflict, and economic stagnation may be the prod societies need before they adapt, says Lall.
He deems the US system for allocating water rights as "not too bad." Where those rights were not tradable, he says, "things are a mess."
Some states – Arizona, California, Idaho, and Texas – have water banks that facilitate leases between rights-holders and users. But since these water banks don't incorporate forecasting, they fail to make deals until a drought begins. What the US needs, says Lall, is a national water policy that incorporates forecasts, trading mechanisms, options, and the coordinated use of both surface and ground-water resources.
While the tools and strategies exist to cope with the impending pressures of a warmer and more populous planet, Lall says, "the question is, will we do it right?"
I think another possibility as that as water prices rise, desalinization technologies beceome more attractive. A high percentage of the world population lives withing 100 miles of an ocean. The technology is not capable of addressing our present challenges but as technology advances and water costs rise, I suspect this will become part of the solution as well.
3. "British people - and many others across the world - have been brought up on the idea of three square meals a day as a normal eating pattern, but it wasn't always that way." Breakfast, lunch and dinner: Have we always eaten them?
7. "It's a common grumble that politicians' lifestyles are far removed from those of their electorate. Not so in Uruguay. Meet the president - who lives on a ramshackle farm and gives away most of his pay." Jose Mujica: The world's 'poorest' president
8. You may have heard that there was a presidential election last week. Here is a map showing how the counties voted, with red being the most intensely Republican and blue being the most Democrat. (Source: The Real Reason Cities Lean Democratic)
9. Speaking of the election, there has been a lot written about how the GOP will need to change if they want to win national elections. As a right-leaning guy, I thought this article in Slate, The New Grand Old Party, and this one by Bobby Jindal, How Republicans can win future elections, were among the best.
13. Nanotechnology just keeps getting more amazing. "The latest invention from Stanford University’s Department of Electrical
Engineering sounds like something a superhero would have. A
self-repairing plastic-metal material has been developed by a team of
professors, researchers and graduate students." New Self-Repairing Material Invented at Stanford
15. Speaking of 3D-Printing, how big a deal is it? "Chris Anderson has exited one of the top jobs in publishing -
Editor-in-Chief of Wired magazine - to pursue the life of an
entrepreneur, making a big bet that 3D printers represent a massive new
phase of the industrial revolution." Chris Anderson: Why I left Wired - 3D Printing Will Be Bigger Than The Web
"A
flash mob (or flashmob) is a group of people who assemble suddenly in a
place, perform an unusual and seemingly pointless act for a brief time,
then disperse, often for the purposes of entertainment, satire, and
artistic expression. Flash mobs are organized via telecommunications,
social media, or viral emails." [Wikipedia accessed 11.12.12]
How do you define a church?"
Tiny nanoparticles are a huge part of our lives, for better or for worse.
“Everything, when miniaturized to the sub-100-nanometer scale, has new
properties, regardless of what it is,” says Chad Mirkin, professor of
chemistry (and materials science, engineering, medicine, biomedical
engineering and chemical and biological engineering) at Northwestern
University. This is what makes nanoparticles the materials of the
future. They have strange chemical and physical properties compared to
their larger-particle kin. The thing that matters about nanoparticles is
their scale.
Nanoscale materials are used in everything from sunscreen to
chemical catalysts to antibacterial agents--from the mundane to the
lifesaving. “I spilled wine at a Christmas party once, and I was
terrified. Red wine on a white carpet. And it wipes right up,” Mirkin
recalled. “The reason is the nano-particulate used to coat the carpet
keeps that material from absorbing into the carpet and staining the
carpet.”
On a more sophisticated side, researchers are developing nanoscale
assays used to screen for cancer, infection and even genes. Gold
nanoparticles that have been doped with DNA can be used to detect
bacteria in a person’s bloodstream, determining whether a patient has
infection and what kind. Or they can be used to detect changes in a
person’s immune system that reflect the presence of cancer. Nano-flares
can measure the genetic content of cells, and light up--or flare--when
they detect a specific cell of a doctor’s choosing, maybe cancer, stem
cells or even the reaction to a small molecule used in a new drug. ...
View the slideshow. Here are the seven examples:
Nanoparticle-Filled Ink Conducts Electricity Cancer Detectors Nano-Absorption Fighting Cancer At The Source Gene Therapy and Drug Delivery Protective Coating For Your Skin Nanomaterials In The Food Supply
The New Rice for Africa variety has become part of the debate over
whether a Green Revolution is the best approach to ensure food security
in Africa. ...
JAMBUR, The Gambia—The dissemination of the high-yielding New Rice
for Africa (NERICA) seeds has sparked contention that is a microcosm for
a central debate in global agricultural development: does Africa need
its own Green Revolution, an effort that 50 years ago saw dramatic
productivity increases through the use of new crop technologies in Asia
and Latin America?
NERICA, developed by 2004 World Food Prize winner Dr. Monty Jones,
is being promoted by the Africa Rice Center mainly in West African
countries where rice is a staple food. It is a cross between an Asian
variety, responsible for the high yield, and an African variety, which
ensures its local adaptability.
West African governments have touted NERICA as a hallmark of a new
Green Revolution and as a path to boosting rice self-sufficiency,
especially after the 2008 food price spike exposed the dangers of import
dependence. On the other side, advocates of “food sovereignty”—centered
on farmers’ control over food systems—have voiced strong opposition.
The advocacy organization GRAIN has labeled NERICA a “trap for small farmers”
who will become vulnerable to expensive chemical fertilizers and seeds,
a situation widely cited by critics of the 1960s Green Revolution.
What I’ve found in Jambur, which in 2002 became the first Gambian
village to access the new crop, is a much more nuanced picture, one that
in fact incorporates elements of each side of the debate. This suggests
what a tactical misstep it would be for food sovereignty loyalists to
completely remove themselves from engaging with a new variety just
because it has become embedded in the discourse of a new Green
Revolution. ...
Many have been inspired by Star Trek to become scientists, and some are starting to make its gadgetry a reality.
Destination Star Trek London has kicked off at the ExCeL exhibition centre,
and I'm willing to bet that among those heading down for a weekend of
pointy-eared fun, there'll be a high proportion of scientists and
engineers.
Many have been inspired by Star Trek to take up a career in science, technology or engineering.
I think the franchise deserves more respect as a science popularisation
medium – how many other prime-time TV shows would allow their
characters to toss out phrases like "I performed a Fourier analysis on
the harmonics, Captain"?
Since its inception in 1966, Star Trek
has familiarised us with the lingo and applications of science. At
least, that was the case for me. I felt pretty disenfranchised from
science at school: it wasn't until I discovered science fiction that I
realised I could understand "difficult" technical concepts.
Since
the show began, many of us have become more tech-savvy than we could
possibly have imagined at school. More than that, we're now seeing
emergent technology here on Earth that was once little more than a Star
Trek scriptwriter's dream. To get you in the mood for this weekend's
festivities, here's a roundup of some of the best Star Trek-inspired
technology.
Replicators - ... Three-dimensional printers have been on the open market commercially for most of the 21st century. ...
Transporters - Earlier this year, Nature reported that photons had been teleported 89 miles, between La Palma and Tenerife. OK, it wasn't exactly transportation ...
Bioneural circuitry - ... And in February of this year, the Scripps Research Institute published details of a DNA-based biological computer based on an original design by Alan Turing. ...
Nanites - ... They've constructed a set of nanorobots, with inbuilt chemical sensors, that can silence genes within cancerous cells. ...
Androids - Japanese scientists have created some remarkably human-looking androids,
though they wouldn't beat Data in a game of three-dimensional chess. ...
Of course, we all ready have personal communication devices. But as someone recently pointed out, while we all have communication devices, we don't see people in Star Trek constantly looking down at them and running into things. ;-) Warp drive would be pretty cool. Any other Trekkie devices that you want to see?
"Science is full of surprises. Chemist Paul Edmiston's search for a new
way to detect explosives at airports, instead, led to the creation of
what's now called "Osorb," swellable, organically-modified silica, or
glass, capable of absorbing oil and other contaminants from water. Osorb
has become the principal product of a company in Wooster called
ABSMaterials, where Edmiston is now chief scientist. With support from
the National Science Foundation (NSF), Edmiston and his colleagues at
ABSMaterials are developing water remediation technologies for cities
and industries -- everything from storm water to agricultural runoff.
Municipal water systems and companies in several U.S. states and
Canadian provinces are using Osorb. ABSMaterials is creating formulas to
address various contaminants, including hydrocarbons, pharmaceuticals,
pesticides, herbicides, chlorinated solvents and endocrine disruptors."
Advocates of 'vertical farming' say growing crops in urban high-rises will eventually be both greener and cheaper.
Want to see where your food might come from in the future? Look up.
The seeds of an agricultural revolution are taking root in cities
around the world—a movement that boosters say will change the way that
urbanites get their produce and solve some of the world's biggest
environmental problems along the way.
It's called vertical farming, and it's based on one simple principle:
Instead of trucking food from farms into cities, grow it as close to
home as possible—in urban greenhouses that stretch upward instead of
sprawling outward.
The idea is flowering in many forms. There's the 12-story triangular
building going up in Sweden, where plants will travel on tracks from the
top floor to the bottom to take advantage of sunlight and make
harvesting easier. Then there's the onetime meatpacking plant in Chicago
where vegetables are grown on floating rafts, nourished by waste from
nearby fish tanks. And the farms dotted across the U.S. that hang their
crops in the air, spraying the roots with nutrients, so they don't have
to bring in soil or water tanks for the plants.
However vertical farming is implemented, advocates say the immediate
benefits will be easy to see. There won't be as many delivery trucks
guzzling fuel and belching out exhaust, and city dwellers will get
easier access to fresh, healthy food.
Looking further, proponents say vertical farming could bring even bigger
and more sweeping changes. Farming indoors could reduce the use of
pesticides and herbicides, which pollute the environment in agricultural
runoff. Preserving or reclaiming more natural ecosystems like forests
could help slow climate change. And the more food we produce indoors,
the less susceptible we are to environmental crises that disrupt crops
and send prices skyrocketing, like the drought that devastated this
year's U.S. corn crop. ...
Generally, technologies are judged on their net benefits, not on
the claim that they are harmless: The good effects of, say, the
automobile and aspirin outweigh their dangers. ...
He goes on to explain that despite sensationalist stories about the negative impact of GM foods, the scientific peer-reviewed scientific data doesn't support it. The substantial benefits get short shrift:
... So to redress the balance [of negative coverage], I thought I'd look up the estimated
benefits of genetically modified crops. After 15 years of GM
planting, there's ample opportunity-with 17 million farmers on
almost 400 million acres in 29 countries on six continents-to count
the gains from genetic modification of crop plants. A recent comprehensive report by Graham Brookes and
Peter Barfoot for a British firm, PG Economics, gives some rough
numbers. (The study was funded by Monsanto, which
has major operations in biotech, but the authors say the research
was independent of the company and published in two peer-reviewed
journals.)
The most obvious benefit is yield increase. In 2010, the report
estimates, the world's corn crop was 31 million tons larger and the
soybean crop 14 million tons larger than it would have been without
the use of biotech crops. The direct effect on farm incomes was an
increase of $14 billion, more than half of which went to farmers in
developing countries (especially those growing insect-resistant
cotton). ...
He goes on to note benefits like less fuel usage, better health and safety for workers, shorter growing cycles, better quality of food, and nearly 1 billion less pounds of pesticide being used. Furthermore, because of several factors, there is less carbon-diosice emission. His final paragraph is the kicker.
There is a rich irony here. The rapidly growing use of shale gas
in the U.S. has also driven down carbon-dioxide emissions by
replacing coal in the generation of electricity. U.S. carbon
emissions are falling so fast they are now back to levels last seen
in the 1990s. So the two technologies most reliably and stridently
opposed by the environmental movement-genetic modification and
fracking-have been the two technologies that most reliably cut
carbon emissions.
And to that final paragraph I might add the observation that many of those
who are the most adamant about catastrophic anthropogenic climate change being
unassailable science are most resistant to science that points the great
benefits and relatively small downsides of things like GM crops and fourth
generation nuclear power.
New Zealand researchers have genetically engineered a cow to produce milk free of the protein that causes allergies in children.
The milk could also prove to be healthier than normal milk as it
contains higher levels of the protein casein, which would result in
higher calcium levels and improved cheese yields from the milk.
The development targets the 2 per cent to 3 per cent of infants in
the developed world who are allergic to cows' milk proteins - used in
the production of baby formulas - in the first year of life.
The researchers add that the success of their approach suggests it may also be used to alter other traits in livestock. ...
Global grain production is expected to reach a record high of 2.4
billion tons in 2012, an increase of 1 percent from 2011 levels,
according to new research conducted by the Nourishing the Planet project for our Vital Signs Online service. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), the production of grain for animal feed is growing the fastest—a
2.1 percent increase from 2011. Grain for direct human consumption grew
1.1 percent from 2011. ...
... Further highlights from the report:
The FAO expects global maize production to increase 4.1 percent from 2011, reaching an estimated 916 million tons in 2012.
Global rice production achieved an all-time high of 480 million tons in 2011, a 2.6 percent increase from 2010.
World wheat production is projected to drop to 675.1 million tons in
2012, down 3.6 percent from 2011, with the largest declines in feed and
biofuel utilization.
Since 1961, grain production has increased 269 percent and grain
yield has increased 157 percent, while the grain harvest area has
increased only 25 percent. This is due largely to the Green Revolution
and the introduction of high-yielding grain varieties.
To purchase your own copy of State of the World 2011: Innovations that Nourish the Planet, please click HERE.
GrowHaus
— co-founded by Adam Brock who works in partnership with JD and
Tawnya Sawyer of Colorado Aquaponics — uses an aquaponic growing
system.
The basic components of the system are a greenhouse
containing tubs of well-fed fish and a water-circulation system that
runs under the plants or beds of produce. Fish waste is treated within
the system and converted to nutrients, which feed the plants. The plants
absorb the nutrients and purify the water, which is then recirculated
GrowHaus
is using the method — which uses an estimated 10 percent of the water
used by traditional agriculture — to produce chard, kale, mustard greens
and basil, which are distributed within the Elyria-Swansea
neighborhood where it is located.
Though the project initially
started as a way for the neighborhood to get cheap, healthy food, it is
drawing broad interest as a model for urban- and water-saving
agriculture. ...
Climate scientists will tell you droughts and other extreme weather
events is the new normal. One way or another, farming needs to adapt to a
new reality. A possible solution is vertical farming. Imagine taking a
bunch of greenhouses, stacking them one on top of each other, and
plunking it down in a city. Once dismissed as an expensive and
unrealistic idea, vertical farms are now cropping up around the world,
but huge challenges still face the young industry. Day 6 producer
Dominic Girard looks into this growing food trend. Click "Read More" for
all kinds of info related to this story.
Go to the site to listen to the radio piece. Here is a short video about vertical farming.
Managing irrigation pumps and water systems is a difficult and costly
task for many farmers in developing countries. The amount of time and
energy farmers spend watering their crops often compromises time that
could otherwise be used for family and community obligations. It also
compromises their safety at night, when they are most vulnerable to
animal predators. A new innovation from the India based company, Ossian Agro Automation, called Nano Ganesh
seeks to transform the way farmers manage their water systems by giving
them the freedom to turn pumps on and off, from any location, with
their mobile phone. ...
... In 2008 Ostwal altered the technology so that it could function over
an unlimited range granting farmers the flexibility to start and stop
the flow of water from anywhere there is a mobile connection.
Nano Ganesh also allows farmers to check the availability of
electricity to the pump and verify the on and off status of its
operation. Both of these features offer cost-saving benefits to farmers
who otherwise may not be able to shut their pumps off before their
fields have become overly saturated. This is important for two reasons.
One is that over-watering can lead to soil erosion
and nutrient depletion. The second reason is that the inability to
remotely shut-off water pumps leads to unintentional water and
electricity waste. With the help of Nano Ganesh farmers will be able to
conserve water and electricity more effectively. This will minimize the
environmental and financial costs of farming. In fact, the product description
suggests that farmers can recover the cost of the technology in just 11
days from the water and electricity savings it will produce. ...
By filling a tall order through its hydroponic farming method, Alegria
Fresh is delivering what it says is healthier and tastier produce on a
modest lot in Laguna Canyon.
LAGUNA BEACH – In a quarter-acre lot tucked into Laguna Canyon, Erik
Cutter is feeding his neighbors food he says is fresher, healthier and
safer than anything else available in Southern California.
Alegria Fresh is the first hydroponic, vertical farm on the West
Coast, and Cutter is hoping to become a model for high-yield,
resource-efficient growing. The farm – 150 7-foot-tall towers that hold
more than 8,000 plants – produces everything from arugula to zucchini,
and in only 1,200 square feet. Each plant grows in reusable coconut
fiber instead of soil, and each pot is linked to an automatic watering
system. The result is about 90 percent less water used and 10 times more
food yielded than a conventional farm. ...
... The towers allow a farm to pop up in virtually any size space, and the
hydroponics help ensure quality. With no soil, soil-borne diseases and
toxins are out of the picture. Plants are fed automatically with a
nutrient-rich solution that can be adjusted to improve health and
sweetness. ...
... The power of food, however, diminishes greatly in the time it takes to
travel from farm to table, he said. Alegria Fresh aims to get its
produce into customers' hands within two hours of harvest. After
harvesting, drivers on a produce route deliver vegetable bouquets to
subscribers' homes, starting at $20 each week. Each bouquet can be made
into about five salads. ...
“Water right now is a strain on this
planet more than carbon,” Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) Chief Executive Officer
Andrew Liveris said in an interview this month in London. “We mismanage
water terribly. It's going to be a big issue.”
But one method is growing as a way to tackle the issue.
According to Global Water Intelligence, desalination is set to become
a $17 billion industry by 2016. Just this year, it jumped to $8.9
billion from $5 billion last year. And as even more water is demanded
for energy processes like fracking, it will nearly double in four years.
Desalination equipment turns ocean water into fresh water. The process, according to Bloomberg,
dates back to the ancient Greeks and Romans, but it was not to become
an industry until post-World War II. The first plant in the U.S. was
located in Freeport, Texas and built by Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) in
1961.
The process of reverse osmosis, using a membrane to remove salt, was
used in the 1990s. Though it still costs ten times as much as
traditional water sources, the cost was reduced by half since its
conception to $1 per cubic meter.
The majority of the world's desalination plants are currently in the
Middle East. There are 30 plants in China and eight in India, though
both nations have more planned for the near future.
While traditional distillation remains the most common technique,
reverse osmosis still has about 45% of the distillation market. But a
new process in the works called forward osmosis cuts down on the amount
of heat and energy necessary for the process, and it could reduce the
cost by 30% according to Modern Water Plc (LON: MWG), a company that
uses the process. ...
Instead of using reverse osmosis, which requires high-pressure pumps to force water through semi-permeable membranes, the Siemens engineers turned to electrochemical desalination.
As a result of an R&D initiative that commenced in October 2008, a
demonstration plant was built in Singapore to treat seawater to drinking
water quality. The results show that the new process reduces desalting
energy by over 50 percent compared to best available technology. The
next step for Siemens is to set up a full-scale system in cooperation
with Singapore's national water agency PUB by 2013.
However, to desalinate it for potable use is an extremely
energy-intensive process. "Our new technology marks a revolution in
seawater desalination," said Ruediger Knauf, Vice President of Siemens
Water Technologies' Global R&D.
"The results of our pilot facility show that the new process not only
functions in the laboratory but also on a larger scale in the field.
Because of its high energy efficiency and thus good CO2 footprint,
electrochemical seawater desalination can play a major role in regions
suffering from freshwater shortages." ...
... The costs of traditional infrastructure are especially pronounced in cities and regions with combined sewer systems that collect both sewage and stormwater. During heavy rainfall, these systems are often overwhelmed, pouring sewage-laden water into drinking water sources and greatly increasing water treatment costs.
Technologies like permeable pavements and rain gardens can capture, naturally treat and filter stormwater back into the ground, preventing overflows and reducing reliance on treatment centers. Chicago's existing green infrastructure, including its green alleys, diverted about 70 million gallons of stormwater from treatment facilities in 2009, according to the report.
These projects can create significant costs savings. New York City plans to build green infrastructure to cut down discharges into its combined sewer system – a project expected to save about $1.5 billion in treatment and infrastructure costs over 20 years. Replacing streets in Seattle with permeable pavement and other green infrastructure has cut paving costs nearly in half.
And by allowing natural processes to take over the work we've been building infrastructure to handle, operations and maintenance costs also fall. The report concedes that some maintenance on green infrastructure will still be required, but that it is significantly less than what's required by traditional infrastructure.
The report notes that water and waste water systems are responsible for a significant amount of energy use, representing about 3 percent of U.S. energy consumption annually. Green roofs can also reduce energy use by keeping buildings cooler in summer and cutting down the need for air conditioning, reducing indoor energy consumption by nearly 10 percent annually.
And though the upfront costs of projects like these can be high, this report shows that taking even a slightly long-term view of their benefits can greatly reduce government infrastructure costs overall.
BANGKOK, Oct 27, 2010 (IPS) - Asia’s search for ways to feed over one billion new mouths in the next 40 years is prompting experts to call for renewed faith in its wide network of irrigation systems in order to ensure adequate food production.
This push by agriculture and water experts comes at a time when concern about the region’s irrigation systems have steadily entered discussions about the impact of climate change on food security.
Rain-fed agriculture is more vulnerable to erratic weather patterns, so that the use of irrigation systems is viewed as being more dependable to farmers across the rice bowls of South Asia, South-east Asia and East Asia.
"Irrigated agriculture is a more secure platform," says Thierry Facon, senior water management officer at the Asia-Pacific office of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). "Rain-fed agriculture is less productive."
This distinction has become more stark against the backdrop of uncertain weather patterns arising from climate change. "Farmers are reluctant to invest in good seeds and fertiliser in rain-fed areas because of climate change uncertainties," Facon explained to IPS. "It is in this area that you find most of the rural poor and vulnerable populations." ...
(Reuters) - Rice farmers could boost their yields by 50 percent with a new method that uses less water Oxfam America said on Wednesday as climate change and drought threaten the staple crop.
Growing rice -- considered the major calorie source for about half the world's population -- is water-intensive, accounting for as much as one-third of the planet's annual freshwater use, said Oxfam, a development group.
Rice farmers normally rely on flooding their fields to keep seeds covered in water throughout the growing season.
But the new method, known as the System of Rice Intensification, or SRI, involves planting seedlings farther apart, keeping fields moist instead of flooding them, transplanting seedlings to fields earlier and weeding manually, Oxfam said in a report.
Farmers using SRI in parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India have been able to produce as much as 50 percent more rice with less water, and often with less labor, said the report, written with U.S.-based nonprofit Africare and the Worldwide Fund for Nature. ...
... MARTIN FISHER, co-founder, KickStart International: It is cheap. It is
extremely robust. It won't break down. It's very lightweight. You can carry
it to the field. You can take the whole thing apart with your hands, put it
back together, because a farmer doesn't even have a screwdriver in rural Africa.
SPENCER MICHELS: Even cheaper is a hip pump that KickStart also sells.
Fisher, a mechanical engineer by training and a former Fulbright Scholar, co-
founded KickStart 10 years ago, after discovering that large-scale rural water
projects and programs to give farm equipment to poor Africans, projects he
worked on, failed after a few years.
MARTIN FISHER: It's not very cheap, because you have to set up a whole
distribution network to give things away. It completely kills local initiative.
It kills the local private sector. And people don't really appreciate things
that they get given. They don't use them fully.
SPENCER MICHELS: Instead KickStart sells its pumps to very poor
farmers, with the promise that they can make money with it.
MARTIN FISHER: Their number-one need is a way to make more money. And, so, if you're going to sell them a tool or piece of equipment, it has to be a moneymaking device. If we buy something, we're going to make sure we use that thing, and especially when you're very poor.
SPENCER MICHELS: When Fisher began to sell, rather than give away, pumps, he was flying in the face of most social theory. He was treated as a heretic by some in the aid community. But he understood that quite well.
MARTIN FISHER: I went over to Africa as a socialist and came -- after about five or six years of hitting my head against the wall, became a small-C capitalist. And the thing is that it actually worked. ...
ROME, Mar 31, 2010 (IPS) - While agricultural research has made massive strides over the years in helping the world produce more food from the same amount of land, around one in six people, the 1.02 billion hungry, have not noticed.
The populations of wealthier countries have abundant cheap food thanks to researchers' efforts and, no doubt, many more people in the developing world would be undernourished if states such as India, Mexico and the Philippines had not imported modern farming practices and technologies. These advances have not done enough, though, to help the rural poor, who account for three-quarters of the world's hungry, to feed themselves or escape from poverty.
"Poor people don't have a voice and rural people don't have a voice, urban tends to dominate and yet all of our food comes from rural areas," said Noel Magor of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), one of the participants at this week's Global Conference on Agricultural Research for Development (GCARD) in Montpellier, France.
"Often it is considered that technology will magically make its way through to poor households and that doesn't happen. Poorer households actually get ignored by the system and so they fall by the wayside."
Research failings are only part of the reason why so many people have empty stomachs in a world of adequate aggregate food supplies, along with a series of social, gender, justice, dissemination and economic issues and long- running underinvestment in agriculture as a whole.
Nevertheless, a part of the problem they are and the obvious solution, is to turn agricultural research 'bottom-up', based on the real needs of smallholder farmers, rather than trying to make solutions developed for other demands work for them. ...
